🔔Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are coming, is the market about to reverse?

I. Core Transmission Logic 📌

1. Weak employment → Rising expectations of rate cuts → Falling U.S. Treasury yields, weakening dollar → Easing liquidity, bullish for crypto assets.

2. Strong employment + rising wages → Delayed rate cuts or even maintained high rates → Rising dollar and U.S. Treasury yields → Funds fleeing high-risk assets, crypto market under pressure, high risk of concentrated liquidations in the futures market.

3. Wage data has the highest priority: Wages above expectations indicate stubborn inflation stickiness, which can directly offset the bullish impact of weak employment, leading to a "weak nonfarm, strong wage" rally-then-retreat scenario.

II. Three Scenario Projections (Corresponding to Tonight's Data)

Scenario 1: Dovish and Bullish (Optimal Combination)

- Data performance: Nonfarm payrolls < 110k, unemployment rate ≥ 4.3%, annual wage growth < 3.4%
- Macro outcome: Probability of a September rate cut rises sharply, U.S. dollar and Treasury yields decline rapidly

Scenario 2: Hawkish and Bearish (Worst Combination)

- Data performance: Nonfarm payrolls > 172k, annual wage growth ≥ 3.5%, unemployment rate flat or declining
- Macro outcome: Market substantially lowers rate cut expectations, dollar strengthens, yields rebound

Scenario 3: Mixed Signals (Volatile Trading)

- Data performance: Nonfarm payrolls below expectations, but wages rise sharply (weak employment + stubborn inflation)
- Macro outcome: Bullish and bearish expectations clash, dollar index and yields oscillate violently

III. Key Details Reminder 💡

1. Unemployment rate + Wages > Nonfarm payrolls
Tonight's expected unemployment rate remains at 4.3%. Once the unemployment rate rises, combined with wage cooling, the bullish effect will be amplified. Even if nonfarm payrolls slightly exceed expectations, as long as wages fall short, downside is limited.

2. Initial jobless claims are only a supplementary reference
This data point has low influence, only amplifying short-term volatility, and cannot reverse the overall trend.