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Tonightat20:30,thebignon-farmpayrolldataisamajortestofwhetherWalsh'sinflationhaseased.Intraday,SKHynixandSamsungElectronicsfellover5%,andduetoZuckerberg'sremarks,themarketgenerallyfearsanoversupplyofAIcomputingpower,triggeringacollectivesell-offandcapitalflight.Tonight,SanDiskandMicronarelikelytofollowthetrendofSKHynixandSamsung;hastheAIhypetemporarilycometoanend?①Tonight'sbignon-farmpayrolldatahasapositiveexpectation.Afterlastnight'ssmallnon-farmdatawasreleased,themarketalreadyshowedsomereaction.WhetheritcancontinuetonightdependsonwhetherthecapitalfleeingAIwillflowbackintogoldandWeb3.Thenon-farmpayrolldatacanbesaidtobeakeyindicatorfortheFed'sratehikesandcuts,andalsothemostimportantindicatorofthemonth,becausethenumberofemployedpeopledirectlydeterminesthenumberofconsumers,whichdirectlydeterminesconsumerspendingpower,whichdirectlydeterminesGDP.ItisanimportantreferencefortheFedtomeasuretheeconomy.Fromtheendoflastyeartonow,thenon-farmdatahasbeenrisingforthebetterpartofayear.Tonight,bewareofasuddendropthatgreatlyexceedsexpectationsormeetsexpectations,whichcouldleadtoamajorreversalinmarketsentiment!Whenitmeetsexpectations,themarket'sexpectationsforratehikeswillcool,andtherewillbesomeexpectationforliquidity,sothemarketwillnaturallyhaveanexpectationforarebound.So,whethertonightcanignitesomeconfidenceinthemarketdependsonthedatarelease!Ifitmeetsorfallsbelowexpectations,thenallthebigdropsinthemarketareopportunitiestoaddtospotpositionsandopeninitialcontractpositions.Forcontracts,focusonthevolumeandpricesignalsatkeypoints;forspot,youcanbuyfreely.②Lastnightafterthemarketclosed,Zuckerbergsaidhewouldsellthecompany'sidlecomputingpower,causingSKHynix,Samsung,etc.toplummetandtriggercircuitbreakers.Inhindsight,companiesindevelopedcountriesarestill"toodumb."Irememberatthebeginningoftheyearwhenthe"lobster"crazewashot,domesticcloudserviceprovidersstartedheavilypersuadingordinaryuserstobuycomputingpowerandotherAIinfrastructuretoraisetheirown"lobsters,"right?Howcomehalfayearlater,thisZuckerbergjustnowthoughtofthis?Itseemshissensitivitytomarketprofitextractionisnotenough!Butthenagain,thosewhowereraising"lobsters"atthebeginningoftheyear—howmanytimeshavetheymultipliedtheirprofitsbynow?#美国6月非农数据 Isitbecauseofhightokenfeesthatmostpeoplehavealreadyleftthecircle,oraretheystillraisingthem?Ibelieve90%havealreadystopped.Somemanufacturers,regardlessofwhetheryouhavearealneed,justkeeptrickingyouintothinkingyouhaveaneedsoyoupay!Tonight,themarketisgoingtobeanotherbloodbath.KeepyourFOMOemotionsincheck!