Mr. Berg's Analysis: "BTC Accumulation Trend Score" Updated, Oversold Bounce Caused by Re-accumulation

Taiwan analyst Mr. Berg noted in a column in collaboration with the Dynamic Zone Dynamic Trend Academy Project that after BTC violently broke below $60k, it initiated a typical oversold rebound. The indicator he tracks, "BTC Accumulation Trend Score," quickly deepened in color, indicating that funds have entered to buy the dip. However, he maintains his previous judgment: if another drop below the previous low occurs, it would be a more ideal bottoming scenario; once the indicator turns yellow, the rebound may be nearing its end. This article is a column in collaboration with Mr. Berg (@market_beggar) and the Dynamic Zone Dynamic Trend Academy Project.

(Previous Summary: Mr. Berg's Analysis >> How to Spot BTC's Super Bottom? Two "100% Win Rate" Market Cost Bottom Signals) (Background Supplement: BTC Long-Term Holders Turn to Net Accumulation, Retail Score at 0.9 Leading, Whales Still Sitting Tight)

Key Highlights

• After BTC violently broke below $60k, it initiated a typical oversold rebound. The "Accumulation Trend Score" indicator tracked by Mr. Berg quickly deepened in color
• The closer the indicator score is to 1, the more aggressive the accumulation by large participants; the closer it is to 0, the more they stop accumulating or even distribute. Calculations exclude the influence of miners and exchanges
• Mr. Berg maintains his judgment: if another drop below the previous low occurs, it would be a more ideal bottoming scenario. Once the indicator turns yellow, it means the rebound is nearing its end

After BTC violently broke below 60K, it initiated a typical oversold rebound. At this stage, how long the rebound will last and whether it can form a reversal are issues we must closely monitor.

What is the "BTC Accumulation Trend Score"

The indicator in the chart is the "BTC Accumulation Trend Score," with the core concept as follows: ➡️ Analyze the trend of wallet balance changes across various groups over the past month to define the intensity of accumulation ➡️ The closer the score is to 1, the more aggressive the accumulation by large participants over the past month ➡️ The closer the score is to 0, the more large participants have stopped accumulating or even distributed over the past month ➡️ Calculations exclude the influence of specific groups such as miners and exchanges

BTC Accumulation Trend Score Indicator. Image Source: Mr. Berg (@market_beggar)

As shown in the chart above: 🟪 The darker the color, the closer the score is to 1, and the more aggressive the accumulation behavior of large participants 🟨 The lighter the color, the closer the score is to 0, and large participants stop accumulating or even distribute

Reviewing the Six-Month Bear Market with the Accumulation Score, the Pattern is Clear

As shown in the chart, if we use the "Accumulation Trend Score" to review BTC's bear market trend over the past six months, we can basically find a clear pattern: ➡️ Late 2025 Top: During the consolidation phase, the indicator turned yellow, starting distribution ➡️ Mid-January 2026 Interim Top: During the consolidation phase, the indicator turned yellow, starting distribution ➡️ February to May 2026: Maintained a distribution state from start to finish

Now, back to the present. We can see that after BTC's final shakeout below 60K, the indicator color quickly deepened, indicating that funds have entered to buy the dip. Combined with some contract market data, this basically explains the rebound of the past few days.

However, my view remains the same as my previous analysis post: "If another drop below the previous low occurs, it would be a more ideal bottoming scenario."

Based on this idea, returning to our BTC Accumulation Trend Score, if we see the indicator start turning yellow at some point in the future, it means the rebound may be nearing its end, and then we might be able to prepare for the "final minor shakeout."

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the BTC Accumulation Trend Score?

This is an on-chain indicator that analyzes the trend of wallet balance changes across various groups over the past month. The closer the score is to 1, the more aggressive the accumulation by large participants; the closer it is to 0, the more they stop accumulating or even distribute. Calculations exclude the influence of specific groups such as miners and exchanges.

How does Mr. Berg view this BTC rebound?

He believes that after BTC broke below 60K, the indicator color quickly deepened, showing funds have entered to buy the dip, explaining the rebound in recent days. However, he maintains that if another drop below the previous low occurs, it would be a more ideal bottoming scenario. Once the indicator turns yellow, it means the rebound is nearing its end.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please conduct your own research and carefully assess risks before investing.