On July 2, global markets maintained a wait-and-see atmosphere, with capital focus concentrated on the upcoming U.S. June non-farm payroll report. The market generally expects job additions to slow compared to the previous month, but whether the labor market remains resilient and any changes in wages and unemployment rates will directly impact market judgments on the Fed's subsequent policy path. Prior to the data release, ADP job additions fell short of market expectations, yet corporate layoffs remained low, indicating that the U.S. job market has not shown clear signs of weakening, and the market still needs to wait for further confirmation from non-farm data. Fed Chair Waller stated at the Global Central Bank Forum that recent inflation expectations and risks have decreased, but reiterated that no forward guidance on policy will be provided, and that the reduction of the balance sheet will continue, while the dot plot will remain as a policy communication tool in the short term. Overall, the Fed has not signaled a clear policy shift but continues to emphasize adjustments based on economic data, shifting the market focus back to employment, inflation, and subsequent economic data itself, rather than preemptively trading policy outcomes. Regarding global liquidity, Japan's monetary policy remains a significant variable of ongoing market attention. Recent improvements in corporate sentiment and inflation expectations have led the market to anticipate further interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan within the year; however, the yen remains near historically low levels, indicating that global capital is still primarily influenced by U.S. interest rates and the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential. If Japan's policy normalization progresses further, it may still affect global arbitrage trading and cross-market capital flows, becoming an important factor influencing global liquidity. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a range, with market risk appetite not showing significant improvement. With the Fed continuing to adopt data-driven decision-making, uncertainties in Japan's monetary policy, and global capital awaiting key economic data for validation, short-term market sentiment will remain dominated by macro events. The upcoming non-farm payroll report and comments from Fed officials will continue to be key observation points affecting the volatility of global risk assets and the cryptocurrency market.

BTC5.25%

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Bitunix Analyst: Market Awaits Non-Farm Confirmation, Fed Maintains Data-Driven Policy Stance

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