# Evening Nonfarm Payroll Market Preview

July 2 #非农数据倒计时
⏰ Key Time (Beijing Time)
20:30 U.S. June Nonfarm Payroll Data
21:30 Fed Official Warsh Public Speech, Secondary Market Volatility

Core Data Benchmark

New Jobs: Expected 113K | Prior 172K
Unemployment Rate: Expected 4.3% | Prior 4.3%
YoY Wage Growth: Expected 3.5% | Prior 3.4%
Key Point: Wage growth weight is higher than job numbers, directly affecting the pace of Fed rate cuts

Three-Color Market Boundary

🔴 [Bearish Market] New Jobs > 150K, Hourly Wage > 3.6%
Economic heat remains high, rate cut expectations delayed, USD strengthens, mainstream crypto under pressure, altcoin losses amplified, do not blindly buy the dip.

🟢 [Bullish Market] New Jobs < 80K, Unemployment Rate Rises
Labor market weakens, easing expectations heat up, risk assets collectively rebound, avoid chasing highs, just buy on pullbacks in batches.

🟡 [Range-Bound] 100K ~ 130K
Data meets market expectations, no unilateral driving force, market whipsaws back and forth, try to avoid opening new contract positions.

Speech Overlay Prediction

Warsh previously held a hawkish stance, leaning towards controlling inflation:

1. Data bullish but speech hawkish, market prone to spike then retreat

2. Data bearish combined with hawkish remarks, downtrend will persist

3. Neutral data combined with hawkish rhetoric, overall market weak

Short-Term Trading Tips

1. The 15 minutes before data release have the most violent fluctuations, hold off on new orders, observe the digestion trend

2. Reduce contract leverage in advance, clear small altcoin positions, low liquidity makes it easy to get trapped

3. Strictly set stop-loss, do not hold positions, do not add positions to average down losses, reserve principal for later moves

Personal views are for reference and discussion only, do not constitute any investment or trading advice. Virtual assets are highly volatile, please manage your position risk accordingly.
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