Big-time nonfarm data lands officially tonight. The core storyline for tonight’s market is very clear: the focus is not on the number of jobs, but on wage inflation data.

Market expectations are that the U.S. average hourly earnings year-over-year will rise back to 3.5%, slightly higher than the prior value. Wage resilience is on the high side, meaning inflation on the consumer side is hard to fall, directly suppressing expectations for Fed rate cuts. The window for easing narrows again, and the medium- to long-term downward pressure on risk assets is clearly established.

For this nonfarm report, employment is expected to be 110,000, significantly lower than the previous value of 172,000. The market has already priced in the positive impact of weaker employment in advance. However, a single piece of employment weakness is not enough to change the macro tone. As long as wage data remains elevated, all rebounds are short-term corrections. The strong dollar structure remains unchanged.

Initial jobless claims tick up slightly, but the offsetting force is limited, and it cannot reverse the hawkish fundamentals.

Overall, there are only two certain paths for the market:
1) Jobs + wages both strong — price action will turn sharply lower in depth;
2) Jobs weaken, but wages stay firm — after a brief surge, the market faces pressure to retreat, and rebounds are an opportunity to short.

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