The credibility of US employment data is questioned; the non-farm "life-or-death line": if new additions are below 150k, the Fed almost certainly will not raise interest rates.

BlockBeats News, July 2 — With the June nonfarm payrolls report set to be released (moved earlier to Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday), the market is showing significant divergence over the authenticity of current U.S. employment data.

From March to May this year, the U.S. averaged 188k new jobs per month, marking the strongest hiring cycle in three years. However, industry insiders worry that the data may contain "water": seasonal factors such as favorable spring weather for outdoor employment and temporary hiring for the World Cup have boosted the figures, and past spring-summer employment trends have often seen a "surge followed by a decline."

Analysts point out that June's job additions need to meet or exceed the Wall Street consensus of 110k to confirm the sustainability of the employment recovery. If the number significantly exceeds expectations—reaching 150k or more—the Federal Reserve may seriously consider raising interest rates at this month's policy meeting; if it falls below this threshold, the Fed will almost certainly keep rates unchanged. Other key observations include:

· The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, still at a historical low;

· The hiring industry is gradually diversifying, breaking away from the previous situation where the healthcare sector dominated;

· Year-over-year wage growth is expected to remain around 3.5%, showing no clear inflationary pressure.

Analysts believe that although the labor market is currently recovering, the reliability and sustainability of the data still need to be further validated by the June nonfarm payrolls report.