TL;DR
· Goldman Sachs, citing TrendForce, expects conventional DRAM average prices to rise another 13%-18% QoQ in 3Q26.
· PC and server DRAM remain supported by low inventory, tight supply expectations, and DDR5 premium.
· NAND is expected to rise 10%-15% in Q3, lower than Goldman Sachs' price assumption of 21% for Samsung.

A Korean tech storage tracking report released by Goldman Sachs on June 30, citing TrendForce, predicts that conventional DRAM average prices will rise 13%-18% QoQ in Q3 2026, while NAND average prices will rise 10%-15%, lower than Goldman Sachs' model assumption of a 21% QoQ increase for Samsung Electronics' NAND prices.

For investors, the key is not that "storage prices are rising again," but which type of storage can continue to drive profit expectations for manufacturers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. DRAM prices are still keeping up with Goldman Sachs' assumptions for Samsung, while NAND is also rising, but the increase is already less than the more optimistic earnings model.

This tracking report sends a direct signal: DRAM price increases in Q3 still have support, especially on the PC and server side; NAND is beginning to diverge internally, with enterprise SSDs still strong and consumer mobile NAND more moderate. Samsung still benefits from the storage uptrend, but the earnings elasticity of the NAND segment may be discounted.

DRAM surged in Q2 and is still rising in Q3

DRAM is the strongest theme in this report.

Goldman Sachs, citing TrendForce, expects conventional DRAM average prices to rise 13%-18% QoQ in Q3 2026, closely matching Goldman Sachs' forecast of a 16% QoQ increase for Samsung's conventional DRAM prices. After significant price hikes earlier, DRAM has not immediately cooled down.

PC DRAM price increases are the most intuitive. In Q2, PC DRAM prices rose 45%-50% QoQ, and are expected to continue rising 15%-20% in Q3. The report explains that PC OEM inventories are low; even though memory and other component prices have already risen, manufacturers are still willing to maintain their procurement pace and continue to seek more supply from vendors.

The underlying concern is that overall DRAM supply could tighten in 2027. For downstream manufacturers, buying less now could mean facing higher prices or more difficulty securing supply later. The price increase itself has not immediately suppressed procurement; instead, it has reinforced some demand for locking in supply early.

June prices also reflect this change. Goldman Sachs' report chart shows that DDR4 8GB prices were roughly flat month-over-month at $119, while DDR5 8GB prices rose from $112 to $115, up 3% month-over-month. The discount of DDR5 relative to DDR4 narrowed by 3 percentage points to 3%, as the new-generation product price catches up to the old specification.

DDR5 8GB PC module discount relative to DDR4 narrowed 3 percentage points to 3% in June.

Server DRAM is stronger, with DDR5 premium rising to 22%

Server DRAM price signals are stronger.

In Q2, server DRAM prices rose 53%-58% QoQ, and are expected to rise another 13%-18% in Q3, broadly consistent with Goldman Sachs' forecast of a 14% QoQ increase for Samsung's server DRAM prices.

Goldman Sachs' report chart shows that DDR4 64GB server module prices remained at $1,127 in June, while DDR5 64GB server module prices rose 9% month-over-month to $1,380. More critically, the premium of DDR5 relative to DDR4 rose from 12% in May to 22%.

This indicates that server-side price increases are not just legacy products following the trend; higher-spec products like DDR5 are commanding higher premiums. The demand for high-capacity, high-bandwidth memory from AI servers, general server upgrades, and data center procurement continues to support prices.

For storage manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix, sustained server DRAM price increases are more important than price rebounds in the consumer electronics segment. Server products have higher prices and more concentrated demand, making them more sensitive to margin improvements. As long as server-side procurement does not slow significantly, the upward momentum in DRAM prices still has room to flow through to profits.

The relationship between spot and contract prices also provides support. Goldman Sachs' report chart shows that DDR5 16Gb spot prices have a 17% premium over the latest contract price, while DDR4 8Gb spot prices have a 38% premium over the latest contract price. Spot prices above contract typically indicate that short-term supply remains tight, or that buyers are willing to pay higher prices for immediate delivery.

DDR5 16Gb spot price premium over latest contract price is 17%, indicating continued support for short-term prices.

NAND is still rising, but cannot catch up with Goldman Sachs' Samsung assumptions

NAND's story is less smooth.

Goldman Sachs, citing TrendForce, expects NAND average prices to rise 10%-15% QoQ in Q3 2026, lower than Goldman Sachs' estimate of a 21% QoQ increase for Samsung's NAND prices. Combined with TrendForce's previous public statements about strong NAND price increases in Q1 and Q2, price hikes are continuing in Q3, but the intensity has weakened compared to earlier periods.

This does not mean NAND prices are turning down; rather, the increase is below the more optimistic earnings assumptions. For Samsung, if DRAM meets expectations and NAND falls short, the overall storage business is still trending upward, but the room for upward profit revision will be partly held back by NAND.

There is also divergence within NAND. Enterprise SSDs remain strong, with eSSD prices expected to rise 18%-23% QoQ in Q3. This demand is supported by data centers and enterprise storage, giving it better price resilience.

The consumer side is more moderate. eMMC/UFS prices are expected to rise only 5%-10%. These products are more oriented toward smartphones, consumer electronics, and embedded devices. Suppliers are adopting more restrained pricing strategies for consumer-side customers to avoid disrupting the end market and supply chain stability.

This is also the main reason NAND falls short of Goldman Sachs' assumptions: enterprise products can increase, but the consumer-side price increases are not high enough, dragging down the overall NAND average price elasticity.

Samsung is still favored, but the positives are not as complete as the DRAM numbers

Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Samsung Electronics with a 12-month target price of 480,000 KRW for common shares. The basis for this judgment remains the upward trend in storage prices, especially that DRAM prices are largely consistent with Goldman Sachs' forecasts for Samsung.

But this price tracking also reminds the market that profit transmission differs across storage categories. DRAM is closer to the "continued price increase" theme, while NAND is "still rising but below the most optimistic expectations."

This will affect investors' view of the pace of Samsung's earnings recovery. If actual Q3 prices are closer to TrendForce's range, the DRAM business may continue to deliver strong profit elasticity; but if NAND stays within a 10%-15% increase, the market will be more cautious about upward revisions to Samsung's storage business.

The risk boundaries are also clear. If storage supply and demand deteriorate significantly, the price increase logic will be weakened; if smartphone margins contract sharply, the room for consumer-side storage price increases will be limited; if mobile OLED market share is lost, Samsung's non-storage business could also drag down overall valuation.

The most important conclusion of this report is not that "storage is broadly strengthening," but rather more nuanced divergence: DRAM price increases continue into Q3, especially strong on the server side; NAND is also rising, but the rate of increase has cooled. For Samsung, this is still a positive, but the positive is not as complete as the DRAM price numbers suggest.

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