Glassnode: BTC long-term holders turn to net accumulation, retail moves first, whales still haven't acted.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $60k mark on July 1, currently trading at $60,163, rebounding for three consecutive days and shaking off the 21-month low of $57,950 seen earlier this week. Glassnode on-chain data simultaneously shows that long-term holders (holding coins for more than 155 days) have shifted from net distribution to net accumulation, with a scale of approximately 50k to 100k BTC, but still far from the peak of 400k BTC during the 2024 bull market highs.
(Previous Background: BTC Plunges Below $60k "Approaching Two-Week Low," 24-Hour Liquidations Reach $249 Million)
(Background Supplement: Glassnode: Bitcoin is Further Entering a Capitulation Phase, Long-Term Demand Has Not Yet Emerged)

Table of Contents

Toggle

• Accumulation Scale of 50k to 100k Coins, Still Four to Eight Times Less Than Bull Market Peak
• Retail and Mid-Sized Holders Score 0.9, Whales Only About 0.4 Still in Neutral Zone
• Holding $60k is a Necessary Condition for a Rebound

Key Summary

• Glassnode: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Shift from Net Distribution to Net Accumulation, Scale of About 50,000 to 100k Coins, First Directional Change After Months of Decline
• Retail and Mid-Sized Holders (100 to 1000 Coins) Accumulation Score Reaches 0.8 to 0.9, Most Active Buyers Among All Size Groups
• Largest Whale Group (Holding Over 10,000 Coins) Score Only About 0.4, Still Close to Neutral, Glassnode Warns Full Accumulation Has Not Yet Arrived

On-chain data speaks volumes. Bitcoin reclaimed $60,000 on July 1, currently trading at $60,163 as of press time, rebounding for the third consecutive day, leaving behind the 21-month low of $57,950 seen earlier this week.

Triggering this breather was the new Federal Reserve Chair's slightly dovish stance on inflation, which the market interpreted as easing pressure on rate hikes and a rebound in risk appetite. But what deserves a closer look is the structural signal emerging simultaneously on-chain: Long-term holders (addresses holding coins for more than 155 days) have switched from "net distribution" to "net accumulation," marking the first directional shift after months of decline.

Accumulation Scale of 50k to 100k Coins, Still Four to Eight Times Less Than Bull Market Peak

According to Glassnode data, the current net accumulation scale of long-term holders is approximately 50,000 to 100k BTC. Placing this number in historical context, during the two bull market peaks in November 2024 and May 2025, accumulation volumes approached 400k BTC, which is 4 to 8 times the current level.

"Historically, a sustained shift from net distribution to net accumulation often occurs during market downturns, with long-term investors gradually increasing their positions while short-term participants reduce risk exposure."

What Glassnode describes here is a recurring structure: the bottom-forming process is often the same period when long-term investors quietly enter the market while short-term traders and retail investors retreat. In terms of volume, the 50,000 to 100k range is still far from the 400k BTC peak; but the direction itself is a signal.

June was Bitcoin's worst-performing month this year, with a monthly decline of over 20%, and Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their largest net outflow since inception. Against this backdrop, long-term holders turning to net buying means that at least some people chose to go contrarian when fear was at its peak.

Retail and Mid-Sized Holders Score 0.9, Whales Only About 0.4 Still in Neutral Zone

Glassnode's "Accumulation Trend Score" provides a more granular breakdown by group. This metric measures the relative behavior of entities of various sizes over the past 15 days, combining balance changes and purchase volumes. The closer the value is to 1, the more active the accumulation; the closer to 0, the more distribution or reduction.

The current distribution shows clear size divergence: retail investors (holding less than 1 BTC) and mid-sized holders (100 to 1,000 coins) have the highest scores, both in the 0.8 to 0.9 range, making them the most active buyers among all size groups; the group holding 1 to 100 coins scores around 0.6 to 0.7, leaning positive but with less intensity; large wallets (1,000 to 10,000 coins) have turned to net buying, with scores around 0.5 to 0.6, indicating willingness but still moderate strength.

What makes this picture less convincing is the whale group at the top. Giant addresses holding over 10,000 BTC currently score only around 0.4 to 0.5, still in the neutral zone. In other words, the most active entrants now are retail investors with a score of 0.9, while whales, holding a significant portion of the market's supply, are sitting on the sidelines. Small capital testing at low levels does not equate to a consensus forming in the market.

Glassnode: "It is still too early to conclude that we have entered a full-scale accumulation phase. The participation of the largest holders is needed for the trend to truly self-reinforce."

Holding $60,000 is a Necessary Condition for a Rebound

Placing the on-chain signals back into the macro context, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their largest net outflow since inception in June, with institutional capital still ebbing; Fed policy expectations have seen a modest shift, with the new Chair's stance leading the market to believe that rate hike pressure has eased slightly. However, this is at best a sentiment breather, not a certainty of capital returning.

$60,000 currently plays the dual role of a psychological level and short-term support. If it breaks below this level again, the next key support is $57,950, the 21-month low touched this week. From a technical perspective, holding $60,000 is a necessary condition for the rebound to continue, but not sufficient. The whale group's score hovering near 0.4 means that the most market-influential addresses are still waiting for some signal that has not yet appeared before deciding to significantly increase their positions.

The above is not investment advice. Please exercise caution in cryptocurrency investments.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does long-term holders turning to accumulation mean Bitcoin's bottom is confirmed?

Long-term holders turning to net accumulation is a positive signal, but it does not equate to a bottom confirmation. Glassnode points out that the participation of the largest holders (whales holding over 10,000 coins) is needed for the trend to self-reinforce. Currently, the whale score is only about 0.4, still close to neutral, and $57,950 below $60,000 is a key support level to watch.

How to interpret Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score?

This metric measures the relative accumulation or distribution behavior of entities of various sizes over the past 15 days, with a value from 0 to 1. The closer to 1, the more active the accumulation. Currently, retail and mid-sized holders score 0.8 to 0.9, but the whale group holding over 10,000 coins scores only about 0.4, still in the neutral zone, making it the most critical structural divergence point in the current market.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please evaluate risks carefully before investing.