Elon Musk shares a group photo of the Optimus mass production team, admits that early production is "extremely slow": This is not like building a car.

While showcasing Tesla’s humanoid robot production progress, Musk also slammed on the brakes on optimistic expectations from the outside.

On Wednesday, Musk, on the social platform X, responded clearly to a user’s speculation about Optimus V3 being produced ahead of schedule, stating: “Optimus production in its initial phase will be extremely slow, because everything is new. It’s not like making cars.”

The day before, he had just posted a group photo with the Optimus mass-production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory. In the photo, Musk stood with his arms crossed alongside workers wearing safety helmets and reflective vests, sparking widespread market speculation about the pace of mass production.

Musk’s remarks directly crushed expectations of “premature mass production,” but once again confirmed substantial progress at the Fremont factory. For Tesla investors, the production rhythm of Optimus—together with the second-quarter vehicle delivery data to be released on Thursday—will serve as key variables shaping the stock’s near-term price action.

Refuting the “premature mass production” theory, the S-curve ramp-up is about to begin

Musk’s response targeted a set of inferences proposed by X user Doctor Jack: Tesla delayed the public demonstration of Optimus V3 because engineers realized that the production progress had exceeded expectations and did not want competitors to copy the design. Jack further predicted that Tesla would showcase a large number of functional robots at a certain major product release event, while also announcing that meaningful mass production had already started.

Musk’s response partially negated this “premature” claim. He has previously said multiple times that Optimus mass production would follow the classic S-curve trajectory—initial output would be extremely low, followed by gradual acceleration as production ramps up. He emphasized that in the early stage, the focus is on getting the assembly process right, not on pursuing production scale.

The complexity of Optimus mass production has structural roots: the robot contains around 10,000 independent components that must operate in coordination. Any single link can become a production bottleneck, which is fundamentally different from the mature systems of automotive manufacturing.

Fremont transformation; Texas mega-factory under construction

Despite the slower pace, Tesla’s capacity layout is advancing in a tangible way. Tesla has converted part of the Fremont factory’s production lines for the initial assembly of the third-generation Optimus robot, including lines that were previously used to produce Model S and Model X. Trial production is expected to begin in Fremont this summer.

Meanwhile, a larger second Optimus-dedicated factory is being built at Giga Texas. Large-scale mass production is not expected to be achieved until around the summer of 2027. Tesla’s long-term goal is annual production capacity of 10 million units.

Tesla and Musk have positioned Optimus as the company’s “most important product ever,” believing that its long-term value may ultimately surpass the electric vehicle business itself.

Outside of Optimus progress, Tesla’s near-term auto business performance will be revealed on Thursday alongside the second-quarter delivery report. According to Benzinga, investor Gary Black of The Future Fund predicts deliveries of about 410,000 vehicles, higher than the market’s general expectations; Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki said Tesla’s performance this quarter is “solid,” and expects the rise in oil prices related to the Iran war to drive more consumers toward electric vehicles.

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