June nonfarm payroll data may cool off, market expects 110k new jobs, Fed policy path under scrutiny.

BlockBeats news, July 2, at 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the United States will release the June nonfarm payrolls report. The market generally expects that the number of new nonfarm payrolls in June will be 110k, lower than 172k in May; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings will increase by 0.3% month-on-month.

Focusing on the June data, the market is centering on two core issues: first, whether the job market has continued to tighten after May, and second, whether May's strong performance was disrupted by one-time factors, especially short-term labor demand from the World Cup. This will directly affect interest rate expectations. The current stabilization of the U.S. job market has reduced the need for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. Unlike last year's rate cuts, financial markets currently generally expect that the Fed may raise interest rates at some point within the year to deal with inflationary pressures. However, if employment unexpectedly weakens, this expectation could quickly reverse.

If the employment data is stronger than expected, the market may further reduce rate-cut expectations or even reprice rate hike possibilities, putting pressure on high-valuation assets such as tech stocks; if the data is significantly weaker, it may boost rate-cut expectations, but will also trigger concerns about U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings prospects.

The market is also watching the volatility of assets such as the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and the yen exchange rate.