#Circle股价重挫17% I. Event Overview: $3.6 Billion Evaporated in a Single Day

On Tuesday, June 30 (Eastern Time), stablecoin issuer Circle's stock price plummeted 17.55%, closing at $62.63, with a single-day market cap loss of approximately $3.6 billion. The stock has fallen 40.34% over the past month, dropping about 35% from its IPO first-day high of $96.

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II. Double Headwinds: Index Rebalancing + Competitive Threat

1. Removal from Five Russell Indices – Direct Driver of Passive Selling

On June 26, during FTSE Russell's annual index rebalancing, Circle was removed from five growth indices, including the Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 3000 Growth, and Russell Mid-Cap Growth. This triggered mandatory selling by passive funds and ETFs tracking these indices. The negative news caused an initial 16.55% drop on June 27, but selling pressure continued into this week.

2. Open USD Alliance – Directly Targeting Circle's Profit Lifeline

A greater threat comes from the new stablecoin Open USD (OUSD) launched by the Open Standard Alliance. Participants include over 140 companies such as Visa, Stripe, BlackRock, BNY Mellon, Coinbase, and Alphabet.

The core of OUSD's fatal threat to Circle lies in its earnings distribution model:

· Approximately 99% of Circle's business model revenue relies on interest generated from USDC reserve assets (approximately $74 billion in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds)
· Circle currently retains 40% of reserve earnings, distributing only 60% to partners
· OUSD pledges to share 100% of reserve earnings with ecosystem partners

More concerning for the market is that Coinbase — USDC's founding partner, which earns approximately $908 million annually in distribution revenue from it — has joined the OUSD alliance. Circle's agreement with Coinbase is set to be renegotiated in August, putting Circle in a highly disadvantageous bargaining position.

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III. Market Reactions and Divergence

Circle CEO's Response: Jeremy Allaire responded on X, stating that USDC processed nearly $30 trillion in on-chain transactions in Q1 2026, accounting for 80% of all dollar stablecoin on-chain transaction volume. He emphasized that USDC's cumulative network effects, liquidity, and regulatory status over the past decade form a "triple moat."

Institutional Divergence is Clear:

· ARK Invest continued to increase its holdings during the sell-off, with Cathie Wood betting that USDC's market dominance will hold.
· Jefferies warned investors against buying the dip, arguing that the 17% decline reflects a repricing of Circle's cash flows.

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Circle's sharp decline this time is the result of a combination of structural factors (passive selling triggered by index rebalancing) and fundamental threats (direct competition targeting its core business model). The emergence of the OUSD alliance essentially represents an industry challenge to Circle's business model of "stablecoin issuers keeping all reserve earnings." When your distribution partners, asset custodians, and even reserve fund managers switch to a competitor that distributes all earnings, the market's panic is justified.

As market observers have noted: "When your original distribution channel turns to support a token that distributes earnings back to them, the entire model gets repriced."