Bitunix Analyst: Market awaits nonfarm verification, Fed maintains data-dependent policy stance

BlockBeats News, July 2 - Global markets remain in a wait-and-see mood, with capital focus concentrated on the upcoming U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report. The market generally expects new job additions to slow compared to the previous month, but whether the labor market remains resilient and whether there are new changes in wages and the unemployment rate will directly affect the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path. Before the data release, ADP private payrolls came in below market expectations, but the number of corporate layoffs remains low, indicating that the U.S. job market has not yet shown a clear sign of weakening. The market still needs to wait for the nonfarm data for further confirmation.

Fed Chair Powell stated at the Global Central Banking Forum that recent inflation expectations and inflation risks have declined, but reiterated that no forward policy guidance will be provided and that the reduction of the balance sheet will continue. At the same time, the dot plot will remain a policy communication tool in the short term. Overall, the Fed has not released a clear signal of policy shift, but continues to emphasize adjusting policy based on economic data, bringing the market's focus back to employment, inflation, and subsequent economic data itself, rather than trading on policy outcomes in advance.

In terms of global liquidity, Japan's monetary policy remains an important variable that the market continues to focus on. Recent improvements in business sentiment and inflation expectations have led the market to still expect the possibility of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year. However, the yen remains near historically low levels, indicating that global capital flows are still primarily influenced by U.S. dollar interest rates and the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential. If Japan's policy normalization proceeds further in the future, it could still impact global carry trades and cross-market capital flows, becoming an important factor affecting global liquidity.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin remains range-bound, and market risk appetite has not shown significant improvement. Against the backdrop of the Fed continuing to take a data-driven approach, uncertainties in Japan's monetary policy, and global capital waiting for verification of key economic data, short-term market sentiment will still be dominated by macro events. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report and Fed officials' remarks will remain important focal points affecting global risk assets and crypto market volatility.