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Commerzbank: The risk landscape has changed, bets on RBA rate hikes are outdated.

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Coin World News, Commerzbank strategist Volkmar Baur believes that the market is pricing in only a 50% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates again this year, and he disagrees. He points out that the energy-related upside risks are fading, while the downside risks from falling property prices are emerging. He believes that inflation would need to rise significantly to prompt the RBA to tighten policy again, and he does not expect this to happen. On the risk front, discussions have mainly focused on the ongoing conflict in Iran and the associated high prices of fossil fuels. But since the last meeting, oil prices have continued to decline, so this risk is temporarily off the table. On the other hand, the downside risk mentioned refers to a potential significant decline in property prices, which echoes our second point. Such a decline could negatively impact consumer spending, thereby dragging on the economy. And the latest data suggests that this trend may be forming. The risk landscape appears to be shifting. We believe that only a substantial rise in inflation would prompt the RBA to raise rates again this year. And as mentioned, we do not expect this to happen.
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GateUser-470bc925
· 3h ago
A 50% probability is still called a prediction? I'm directly betting on no rate hike; inflation isn't rising, so the central bank has no motivation to act.
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SandwichMev
· 3h ago
Baur's judgment this time is quite solid; energy risks are receding and housing prices are dragging down consumption. The logic for raising interest rates really doesn't hold water.
View OriginalReply0

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