Pre-market Thoughts 0702


Still think the trigger for the storage decline in recent days is Apple's price increase last week, although it's not enough to prove that supply and demand have actually changed, it will affect expectations.
Past: AI demand always rises, storage is always in short supply, performance will continue to drive stock prices up.
Now: Rising demand is constrained by downstream capacity.
Consensus begins to turn into divergence here. Even though everyone knows that the fundamentals of demand have not actually changed, they need to worry about changes in others' expectations. So at high levels, they need to front-run and hedge.
Meta's news is weaker in factual nature than Apple's, but it has a greater impact on the market because the chain of suspicion in divergence has already formed, and the news adds the final spark.
Conversely, since the fundamentals have not actually reversed, deep corrections will only provide stronger safety margins. What divergence first ditches are those "fake value assets" that rose with the trend.
If it can drop a bit more at today's open, I'm ready to add positions. Maybe the correction isn't enough yet, but I can't wait. Get locked in first, then figure it out later.
$MU $SNDK $AMD $INTC $EWY
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