BTC bulls are preparing to launch a counterattack—the outcome hinges on the non-farm payrolls data!

The ADP data released yesterday showed that in June, employment only increased by 98k jobs, which is much lower than the market expectation of 118k, and the overall picture of the data was weak. Coupled with Fed Waller’s remarks, inflation pressures and market risks have eased somewhat in recent weeks, directly causing U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar to move down in sync, and BTC—having been subdued for a long time—has accordingly received a boost. So this morning, it surged straight up to around 613, which fully matched the level I had predicted earlier.

Next, the key focus is today’s non-farm data—this round of data will have a very big impact on BTC’s subsequent direction. Everyone should remember that BTC started falling from early June, which coincided with the start of the US-Canada-Mexico World Cup. The May non-farm data came in far above expectations and was strong, directly heating up market expectations for rate hikes, putting pressure on the coin price all the way through. Now that the World Cup schedule is already more than halfway through, this non-farm data will most likely see a noticeable pullback and correction. Wait to keep going long further down—first, look for a retracement.

BTC trading suggestion: short at 616-619. Defense: 800 points. Target: 604; if it breaks through, look at 595-587#沃什宣告终结前瞻指引 $BTC