Strange! $BTC broke below 60k, with panic selling across the entire network, but this set of on-chain data reveals the true intention of the major players!

$BTC has fallen below the $60k mark, with institutional capital continuing to flow out, and defensive positions in the options market stifling sentiment. But beneath the surface, long-term holders and patient buyers are gradually absorbing the selling—the bottom-building process may have quietly begun.

Key points: Long-term holders return to accumulation mode, with experienced investors scooping up coins again during the correction. Widespread accumulation is occurring across multiple wallet cohorts, as investors gradually build confidence amid price weakness. The amount of $BTC currently in a loss position has exceeded that in profit—approximately 10.83 million coins are underwater, while only 9.22 million are profitable. This marks one of the worst deteriorations in profitability since the start of this bull cycle. Coins are migrating to more resolute holders.

U.S. spot $BTC ETFs continue to see net outflows, with the 7-day moving average of net outflows deepening into negative territory. The institutional de-risking trend persists, with redemptions orderly but ongoing. Coinbase's order book is noticeably skewed towards bids, as institutions patiently provide liquidity, rebuilding support below the market.

Leveraged traders are significantly increasing long exposure—positions on Hyperliquid are almost entirely tilted towards longs, with net long exposure steadily increasing as prices decline. This creates an asymmetric structure: if buyers regain control, the large long positions could fuel a sharp rebound; but as long as the downtrend remains unbroken, overextended longs are also susceptible to forced liquidations, amplifying volatility.

Options market makers dominate with gamma positioning—the Deribit GEX heatmap shows significant positive gamma concentration around the $60k low. Market makers hedge by buying into weakness and selling into strength, naturally dampening volatility and encouraging price stability near high open interest strike prices. The options market is no longer positioning for accelerated downside; hedging flows are becoming a source of liquidity.

Option traders are actively buying downside protection—the 14-day put/call volume ratio has surged above 1.0, reaching its highest level in the past year. This indicates that traders are prioritizing hedging risk over chasing upside. Following extensive defensive positioning, the market's vulnerability to incremental selling pressure has decreased. However, risk management remains the top priority.

Implied volatility has recovered from historical lows—the DVOL index has started to climb, but remains far from panic extremes. This looks more like the early stages of bottoming rather than the end. Historical lows are often followed by a final volatility spike (forced selling, liquidations, or macro shocks). If this spike occurs, it is likely accompanied by indiscriminate selling. Until then, rising volatility is merely traders preparing for larger moves.

On the macro front: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive time at its June meeting. New Chair Kevin Warsh takes a notably hawkish stance, and the market has largely abandoned expectations of rate cuts this year, with the earliest possible easing not until 2027. Treasury yields have rebounded to 2026 highs, and the dollar is strengthening. Financial conditions are not loose, and there is no near-term catalyst for improvement. $BTC is the primary bearer of this repricing.

Overall, $BTC remains in a clear correction phase, but some structural shifts are occurring. Long-term holders are accumulating again, buying activity is expanding across multiple wallet cohorts, and the spot order book is increasingly skewed towards bids—these are typically associated with patient capital stepping in as weak hands exit. However, with persistent institutional outflows and elevated leveraged longs, the market may still need one final washout to establish a bottom. The data suggests the market is transitioning from a distribution phase to an accumulation phase, but confirmation is still pending.

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