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Nomura: It's Premature to Conclude Chip Stocks Have Peaked, AI Server Demand and Supply Chain Bottlenecks Persist

AirdropBlackHole
On July 2, Nomura stated in a recent in-depth semiconductor report that cloud providers will still find it difficult to halt expansion by 2027. The iteration of AI models, growing inference demand, expanded data center construction plans, and tight supply of storage and advanced packaging will compel cloud providers to continue securing resources for chips, packaging, substrates, storage, and servers. Nomura's reasoning is that AI capital expenditure is not a short-term choice for a single company, but rather a competitive pressure among large cloud platforms. As long as companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are competing for AI models, enterprise customers, and inference traffic, they will find it hard to slow down infrastructure development voluntarily. Even with rising costs, stopping could mean losing competitive positioning on the platform. The report specifically mentions that while TSMC is expanding its CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, smaller substrate suppliers may become new bottlenecks. In other words, bottlenecks exist not only in GPUs but also in advanced packaging, ABF/substrates, HBM, server assembly, and power infrastructure. Consequently, Nomura is optimistic about supply chain companies such as TSMC, ASE, Aspeed, MediaTek, GlobalWafers, KYEC, Elite Material, and Zhen Ding. This assessment contrasts with concerns over 'AI overheating': the real issue is not the disappearance of demand, but rather that the supply chain is still insufficient; as long as bottlenecks exist, cloud providers will continue to pay for scarce capacity.
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