#非农数据倒计时 The US June nonfarm payroll data will be released tonight (July 2) at 20:30. As the last employment report before the Fed's July meeting, the results may directly affect rate hike expectations and global market trends.

📊 Key Data at a Glance

· Market consensus expectations: 110k to 115k new jobs, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%, average hourly earnings up 0.3% month-on-month.
· Institutional views: Goldman Sachs predicts 140k (boosted by temporary World Cup jobs), possibly even higher; TD Securities predicts only 80k, believing employment may have clearly slowed down.

🎯 Core Highlights and Impact

· "Inflated" vs. "Adjusted": Goldman Sachs notes that the World Cup is expected to temporarily contribute about 40k jobs. Excluding this factor, underlying employment growth may have slipped to around 90k.
· Pointing to a rate hike or waiting: Currently, the market expects about a 30% probability of a Fed rate hike in July. If the data is unexpectedly strong (e.g., >175k), the probability of a rate hike will increase significantly, potentially boosting the US dollar and putting pressure on US stocks and precious metals; if the data is weak (<110k), rate hike expectations will fade, which is short-term positive for risk assets.

Combined with the Portugal vs. Croatia match, tonight is truly a double feast of "football + economics."