Applying the logic of crypto trading to the U.S. stock market 🇺🇸

You'll lose everything down to the last feather!

The crash of $CRCL is because its profit model has been replaced. Over 140 industry giants have jointly launched a new stablecoin, OpenUSD (OUSD).

Participants include Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, Coinbase, Stripe, and Google. After the announcement, Circle Internet Group's stock price once plunged 15% during trading.

What the market truly fears is not the security of USDC, but its distribution advantage.

In the past, Circle earned massive interest income from U.S. Treasury bonds by issuing USDC, then used a portion of the profits to incentivize partners for promotion. But OUSD has adopted a completely different approach: after deducting a small management fee, it returns the vast majority of the revenue to the channel partners.

For platforms like Visa, Stripe, and Coinbase that control payment gateways and user traffic, whoever distributes the stablecoin earns more—naturally giving them greater incentive to promote OUSD.

However, this does not mean USDC will be replaced.
USDC still has a robust compliance framework, native liquidity across more than 20 blockchains, institutional-grade custody capabilities, and a payment network built over years. These moats are difficult to replicate in the short term.

My assessment is:

In the near term, OUSD will struggle to shake USDC's core position in DeFi, but it will capture emerging markets such as corporate payments and merchant settlements. What truly changes is the industry’s profit model—the era of stablecoin issuers earning passive interest may be coming to an end.

Going forward, keep an eye on two key dates:
1. End of August: Circle’s revenue-sharing renewal negotiations with Coinbase.
2. Finalization of rules regarding profit distribution in the U.S. stablecoin regulatory bill.

A new round of competition in the stablecoin industry has just begun.