TL;DR
· 10x Research says Bitcoin is moving along its A-B-C path from the $82K rebound high toward a $50K cycle low.
· This path corresponds to a $63K A-wave low, an $82K B-wave rebound, and the currently unfolding C-wave decline.
· Spot prices remain near $60K, with $55K and $50K not yet reached; specific catalysts and buy signals remain undisclosed.

In its latest article on July 1, 10x Research stated that Bitcoin is advancing along its Elliott Wave path toward a $50K cycle low, while the spot price has already returned to around $60K. For traders, this is not a "bottom confirmed" signal but a more realistic question: if the earlier rebound from $63K to $82K was just a bear-market relay rally, will $55K become the real stress test, potentially pushing prices further toward $50K?

The crypto research firm has previously used cyclical and technical analysis to identify Bitcoin turning points multiple times. The core of the latest article is not complicated: it believes the bear-market path since last year is unfolding in an A-B-C corrective structure, with A-wave falling to about $63K, B-wave rebounding to about $82K, and now entering C-wave decline, with the ultimate target still pointing to a cycle low around $50K.

As of July 2, Bitcoin spot prices are still fluctuating around $60K, having briefly dipped above $58K during the day. This means the "approaching $55K" described by 10x Research has not fully occurred yet, and $50K is even less of a realized outcome. What the market is truly trading now is whether this path will continue to play out or stabilize again near $60K.

$63K, $82K, $50K — 10x breaks the bear market into three stages

The path reiterated by 10x Research this time comes from several of its previous reports.

In October 2025, the firm began signaling that Bitcoin might enter a bear market phase; on December 19 of the same year, in a report titled "Trading the Reset: Bitcoin's Path Through the Cycle Low," it predicted Bitcoin could fall toward around $65,888 and anchored the potential low point timing to the 2026 World Cup period; by February 5, 2026, the target was further revised down to about $50K, with a clearer Elliott Wave count provided.

The so-called Elliott Wave is a technical analysis framework that believes prices cycle between impulse waves and corrective waves. Applied to this judgment, 10x Research interprets Bitcoin's decline from its high as a three-segment A-B-C correction: first falling to around $63K, then rebounding to $82K, and then entering the next decline.

This path attracts attention because the first two segments have largely already occurred. Bitcoin did indeed form a阶段性 low near $63K, then rebounded to around $82K, before retreating again to the current $60K range. Therefore, 10x Research believes the market is entering the verification phase of the "final steps" of the bear market.

But the key boundary here is also clear: wave counting is not a deterministic model. Different analysts can assign different wave labels to the same price action. So-called "path fulfillment" is more of an interpretation from a technical analysis perspective, not a guarantee that prices will necessarily fall to a certain point.

$55K becomes the next stress test

The most immediate price level right now is $55K.

If Bitcoin continues to decline from around $60K, $55K will become the first threshold for the market to judge whether the C-wave is truly unfolding. Breaking below this level would bring 10x Research's $50K target closer; if prices repeatedly stabilize above $55K, then this path may need recalibration.

This is also the trading implication of this article. For holders, the question is not whether to believe a certain technical theory, but whether the current pullback remains part of the bear market's tail end. For funds waiting to enter, the question is whether around $50K will present a buying window for the next structural uptrend.

In its public content, 10x Research mentioned that the remaining focus includes: what the catalyst for confirming the low will be, whether the final low needs fine-tuning, and when to start buying for the next rally. However, these answers lie behind a paywall, and the public portion does not provide clear trigger conditions.

Therefore, all that can be confirmed currently is that the firm has reaffirmed a path: from $63K to $82K, and then toward $50K. One should not conclude from this that "the bottom is about to appear" or that "a buy signal has been given."

Different from 2022, the market weakened earlier this time

10x Research also compared the current market to the 2022 bear market.

In the first half of 2022, Bitcoin was still fluctuating at relatively high levels, and the crypto industry sentiment did not cool quickly. The article noted that after the FTX-related conference, the market remained optimistic, with related events attracting many participants; then Bitcoin experienced a deeper decline, eventually forming a low around November of that year.

The difference this time is that market fatigue has appeared earlier. Bitcoin has already significantly retreated from its previous highs, the rebound failed to reopen upside space, and prices have returned to around $60K. For 10x Research, this behavior resembles exhaustion in the later stage of a bear market, rather than a restart of a new uptrend.

However, the 2022 analogy can only serve as sentiment and cycle background, not be directly applied. That bear market overlapped with multiple shocks such as Fed rate hikes, liquidity contraction, and FTX collapse; the current market faces different macro interest rates, regulatory environments, ETF flows, and institutional participation.

In other words, 2022 can illustrate that "high-level optimism may mask downside risks," but it cannot directly deduce that "this time will necessarily replicate the same decline."

World Cup time window aligns, but bottom still needs price confirmation

10x Research previously identified the 2026 World Cup period as a potential low-point time window. The 2026 World Cup runs from June 11 to July 19, and we are currently within this timeframe, which brings its earlier time anchor back into focus.

But a time window is not price confirmation. Even if Bitcoin continues to decline during the World Cup, it still needs to see whether the market shows signs of a volume-stabilized stop, leverage washout, macro catalyst changes, or other signals that could support a low. Conversely, if prices do not break below key areas, relying solely on a time window cannot prove that the bottom has already appeared.

This is also the biggest limitation of the public information: the article only shows that 10x Research is discussing low catalysts, final low fine-tuning, and next buying timing, but does not disclose the complete answers. Investors can see the roadmap but not the specific execution conditions.

Therefore, this judgment is better suited as a risk reminder rather than a trading instruction. If Bitcoin falls toward $55K, the market will more seriously test the $50K target; if prices stabilize above $60K and regain upward momentum, the explanatory power of the A-B-C path will be challenged.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a tug-of-war around $60K. 10x Research focuses on the final stage of the bear market, but what will truly determine whether this path holds is the price reaction near $55K in the coming days and whether a catalyst sufficient to confirm the cycle low emerges.

Click to learn about the positions BlockBeats is recruiting for

Welcome to join the BlockBeats official community:

Telegram subscription group: https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram discussion group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter official account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia