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Guotai Junan Futures: European lines under short-term pressure, 08 may first overshoot then recover.

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Short-term pressure remains, and the 08 contract may first overshoot before recovering. Yesterday, European route futures weakened sharply, with the main 2608 contract increasing positions and moving downward, closing down 11%. From a fundamental perspective, the supply-demand balance in early July showed marginal loosening, with loading among shipping companies polarizing. The inflection point of the freight rate center has basically emerged, and the momentum for further significant upside has disappeared. However, supported by long-term contract cargo in July, freight rates are unlikely to experience a catastrophic decline. From the trading logic on the board, the 2607 contract is reducing positions as it heads into delivery, fluctuating in the 3600–3700 point range in the short term, with subsequent volatility depending on quotes in late July. The 2608 and further-dated contracts have weak momentum, following the price decline narrative after the inflection point. The 08 contract exhibits a characteristic of "short-term focus on momentum, light on valuation," with intensified capital speculation. According to historical statistical patterns, the discount of 08 to 07 typically ranges between 8% and 15%, with extreme cases (e.g., 2016) reaching a discount of 25%. Considering that the delivery date for the 2608 contract is later this year, providing an extra week of price decline window compared to previous years, valuation can be appropriately conservative. However, even by this measure, the current board's 08 contract has already reached a relatively extreme discount level, suggesting a potential opportunity for oversold recovery. (Guotai Junan Futures)
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