Brother Xing Talks Crypto | July 2, 2026 (Thursday) $ETH Precise Strategy

Today, we still focus on “kong” — rebound to trade “kong”

Entry position: 1620 - 1630
Stop loss: 1650
Target: 1580 - 1500

After ETH spiked to 1645.86, longs lost steam and price fell back. The prior swing high has already formed a strong resistance zone. The current rebound has stalled near the moving average, showing a serious lack of bullish momentum in the short term. On top of that, macro tightening remains a bearish headwind. In terms of execution, priority is to short the rebound into the high area.

Macro tightening plus regulatory pressure → Risk assets under valuation pressure
According to the latest report from Jinshi Data, Fed Chair Walsh said that “inflation expectations and risks have eased in recent weeks,” but did not provide any forward guidance on pausing rate hikes. He also clearly stated that “wanting to shrink the balance sheet is not a secret.” At the same time, U.S. June ADP employment only rose by 98,000, below the expected 118,000. The macro data shows a stagflation pattern of “economic cooling but high interest rates maintained,” which keeps risk-asset valuations under sustained pressure and makes it hard for ETH to break away from the broader environment and run an independent bullish trend.

ETF outflows and liquidity tightening → The altcoin “suction” effect weakens
Spot ETFs have seen net outflows for 7 consecutive days, totaling -$870 million. With macro uncertainty, institutions have proactively reduced risk exposure. When Bitcoin is locked in a contest of liquidity-driven bull traps and sell-offs around the 60,000 level, ETH—often the flagship of altcoins—typically faces even more severe liquidity siphoning. In the absence of incremental capital inflows, the overhead from trapped longs above ETH is heavy. A rebound into the 1630-1645 range is extremely likely to trigger long stop-losses and prompt short-side retaliation. Going short into the high following the rebound is currently the best choice for the risk-reward ratio #Circle股价重挫17%