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1. Market Review
This week, gold prices overall exhibited a wide-range oscillation pattern, showing a roller-coaster washout trend: prices fell to 3940 at the beginning of the week before rebounding. On Wednesday, influenced by Fed's Waller's speech (hinting at cooling inflation and cooling expectations of rate hikes), gold surged to around 4115, but failed to maintain the uptrend in the early hours and fell again, showing clear signs of repeated long-short tug-of-war.
2. Key Event Focus
- The June non-farm payroll data will be released early on July 2 at 8:30 PM, with a previous value of 172K and market expectations of 110K. The expected difference is large, which is theoretically bullish for gold, but it must be emphasized that actual data should be the guide, and guessing ahead is not recommended.
- Previously, ADP employment data had already released a bullish signal, combined with Waller's dovish speech, the short-term fundamentals are leaning bullish, but one should be wary of reverse volatility if data falls short of expectations.
3. Technical Analysis
- Resistance: 4115 is yesterday's rebound high. If effectively broken, the next target is the 4150-4200 area, which is the previous key resistance zone.
- Support: 3960-3940 is the recent low support. If broken, the downside space will open to the 3900-3850 area, with extreme cases possibly testing around 3880.
- Trend Judgment: The market remains in an oscillating state, with neither upward nor downward momentum having continuity. In operation, strict position management is required, avoiding frequent trading.
4. Operation Suggestions
- In an oscillating market, prioritize the high-sell-low-buy strategy, with light positions for trial entries, and stop-losses set outside key resistance/support levels.
- If 4115 is broken, follow up with long positions, targeting 4150-4200; if 3960 is broken, follow up with short positions, targeting 3900-3850.
- Before the release of the non-farm data, it is recommended to reduce positions or stay on the sidelines, and only trade according to actual results after the data is released.
Risk Disclaimer: The above analysis is solely personal opinion and does not constitute any trading advice. The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious.
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