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Nonfarm payrolls are arriving early tonight! $BTC just caught a breath.
At 8:30 PM tonight, the June nonfarm payrolls report will be released early — Bitcoin has barely bounced back from 57K to 60K. Whether this recovery can hold depends entirely on this data set.
Market expectations: 155k new jobs added, unemployment rate 4.2%. If the data beats expectations, rate hike expectations will resurface, and Bitcoin won't hold 60K; if it misses, rate cut expectations will heat up, and Bitcoin could use the opportunity to push 62K or even higher. The U.S. stock market is closed on Friday, so tonight is the last liquidity window of the week — volatility won't be small.
My view:
Warsh just softened his stance, saying "inflation risks are declining," but the nonfarm payrolls are the real litmus test. If the data is good, he may retract yesterday's dovish signals; if it's bad, 60k is the short-term bottom. Don't bet on direction — wait for the data to land before making a move.