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Morgan Stanley bullish on GOOGL and META, with real valuation undervalued by over 30%.
Shenchao TechFlow message: On July 2, according to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley released an internet index tracking report, noting that Google and Meta’s nominal EV/EBITDA look inexpensive (GOOGL 16.1x, META 8.9x), but after adjusting for stock-based compensation accounting treatment, the real multiple rises from 16.3x to 31.1x (+91%), still below the five-year average of 31.6x. This implies that the market underestimates the real valuation of internet giants by more than 30%.
In the short term, AI funding is on standby, and the expected 2026 EPS growth rate for digital advertising companies is negative. Looking longer term, once the ROI of AI advertising products is clearly validated, the valuation center will be reshaped quickly.
The internet index has recently fallen due to a technical adjustment, and it is still up 14.2% year-to-date (YTD). Catalysts include AI advertising ROI validation, changes in interest rate expectations, and a repricing of the valuation center.