#加密市场观察 Today's Hot Topics: Fed Dovish Expectations Poised to Heat Up, Bitcoin Likely to Bottom Out Before October, July Is the Key Turning Point Today's Hot Topics: Fed Dovish Expectations Poised to Heat Up, Bitcoin Likely to Bottom Out Before October, July Is the Key Turning Point

Bitwise Europe's Head of Research, André Dragosch, analyzed that if the semiconductor sector rebounds sharply and prompts the Fed to release dovish signals, July could become a turning point for Bitcoin's bull/bear cycle. His core view is that Bitcoin is likely to bottom out earlier than the market's general expectation of October.

Trump's hundreds of millions in crypto income exposed, greatly accelerating negotiations on ethical clauses in the Clarity Act
Trump's financial disclosure documents show his crypto-related income reached hundreds of millions of dollars, while Melania's NFT revenue also surged from $216k to $6 million. This incident has significantly sped up negotiations on the ethical clauses of the Clarity Act; bipartisan senators are calling for strict cross-party ethical reforms to prohibit the president and lawmakers from using cryptocurrency for personal gain. Trump, however, argues that his assets are managed by anonymous large institutions and he is not involved in operations.

On-chain activity weakens across the board, derivatives and DeFi shrink simultaneously, investors collectively hold coins and wait
The crypto market's trading activity has cooled significantly, with 24-hour DeFi trading volume down 15.34%, derivatives trading volume down 7.46%, and stablecoin trading volume slightly down 0.07%. Volumes in both spot and derivatives tracks have shrunk simultaneously, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the current market, with funds generally pausing trading to wait for clear market signals.

Powell-style forward guidance exits the stage; investment now relies solely on economic data to judge the pace of rate hikes
Trump-nominated Fed Chair Warsh, who took office in May, has issued a major policy signal: the Fed will shift to a completely new policy path, completely abandoning forward guidance. It will not disclose a preference for rate hikes or cuts in advance, and whether to hike rates in July will be entirely determined by economic data. He dislikes officials frequently speaking out and disrupting the market, with a communication style distinct from Powell's. Warsh previously served during the 2008 financial crisis, and going forward, investors will have to rely on various macroeconomic data to judge the Fed's interest rate direction on their own.

Europe's crypto regulation faces dual changes: MiCA takes effect with simultaneous revisions, leading to increased uncertainty in the stablecoin track
The EU's crypto regulation framework, MiCA, officially came into full effect today, with the EU simultaneously launching an overall assessment and revision of the legislation. Stablecoin regulatory rules and cross-border regulatory equivalence mechanisms have been prioritized for review, and subsequent provisions may see adjustments, directly impacting the compliance layout of global stablecoins within the EU.

Global crypto regulation evolves in sync: Taiwan fills legislative gaps, EU urgently optimizes MiCA framework
The TW region has officially passed its first dedicated crypto regulation, the "Virtual Asset Service Act," establishing a complete licensed regulatory framework to regulate exchanges, stablecoin issuance, and other activities. On the same day, the EU's MiCA crypto regulation fully took effect, with the EU simultaneously launching an assessment and revision of the legislation. Stablecoin rules and cross-border equivalence mechanisms have been prioritized for review, marking a major synchronized update in global crypto regulation.

CryptoQuant CEO makes major statement: Bitcoin still has a parabolic rally ahead, institutional large-scale allocation is key

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted an analysis stating that Bitcoin is still expected to experience a parabolic surge. Today's market capital efficiency has dropped significantly; in the early years, $2.7 billion could drive tens of thousands of percentage points in gains, while this cycle, nearly $700 billion has only driven a 689% increase. The next bull run cannot rely solely on retail ETFs; it requires deep institutional allocation and for Bitcoin to become a mainstream macro asset. Currently, the institutional transformation is still in its early stages. If Bitcoin absorbs over $1 trillion in realized market cap, a new wave of explosive growth can be expected. Gold's current market cap is about $27 trillion, which can serve as a reference.