I. Current Market Overview

As of the early morning of July 2, 2026, the ETH perpetual contract price is trading in the range of 1610-1625 USD. After dipping to a low of 1550 USD along with the broader market yesterday, it stabilized and rebounded, rising to around 1635 USD in the early hours before facing resistance and pulling back. The overall rebound strength is weaker than that of BTC, indicating a technical recovery phase within a descending channel. Spot Ethereum ETF funds have seen net outflows for seven consecutive weeks, with a lack of incremental market capital. The U.S. June non-farm payroll data at 8:30 PM tonight will be the core catalyst for a short-term breakout. The market expects 113k new jobs, and the data result will directly affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, leading to a significant increase in volatility.

II. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Level

The medium-term bearish pattern has not reversed. The price is trading below all medium and long-term moving averages such as MA20 and MA50, maintaining a standard bearish alignment. The MACD indicator is below the zero axis, with the green bars narrowing but no clear golden cross reversal signal. The RSI has recovered to around 34, still in the weak zone. Rebound highs continue to decline, and the descending channel structure remains intact. The 1500 USD level is the core daily psychological and on-chain holding support level; a break below would fully open the downside.

4-Hour Level

The price has started an oversold rebound from the low of 1550 USD, currently testing resistance near the middle Bollinger Band at 1630 USD. Short-term EMA5 and EMA10 have turned upward, providing short-term support, but EMA30 and EMA60 are still diverging downward, indicating the rebound is merely a recovery within the descending channel. The Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, volatility is compressing, and the window for a reversal coincides with the non-farm payroll data release. The MACD has initially formed a golden cross at a low level, with the red bars increasing slightly, suggesting some short-term bullish momentum recovery, but lacking volume support, the risk of a retracement after a spike is high.

Hourly Level

The short-term is maintaining a narrow range consolidation between 1590 and 1635 USD. The 1580-1590 USD zone is the previous breakout retest level and also coincides with the hourly 60-period moving average, making it the key intraday bull-bear demarcation line. If this zone holds after being tested, the short-term rebound still has upward momentum. If it is broken effectively, the rebound structure will end, and the market will revert to a weak downward trend, retesting the previous low support.

III. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Type Price Range (USD) Description
Strong Resistance 1650-1670 20-day moving average + previous platform high; a break with volume is needed to reverse the short-term weakness
Short-term Resistance 1625-1635 Early morning rebound high + 4-hour Bollinger Band middle line
Short-term Support 1580-1590 Hourly 60-period moving average + short-term breakout retest level
Strong Support 1545-1555 Yesterday's low + recent dense trading support zone
Core Support Around 1500 Daily psychological level + dense on-chain holding area; the mid-term bull-bear lifeline

IV. Contract Trading Strategy

Before the non-farm payroll data, take a light position range-bound approach, strictly set stop-losses, and avoid the risk of significant price spikes from data events:

1. If the price stabilizes after retracing to the 1580-1595 USD zone, you can open a light long position with targets at 1625 and 1645 USD, and a stop-loss set below 1570 USD.

2. If the price faces resistance after rebounding to the 1630-1645 USD zone, you can open a light short position with targets at 1600 and 1585 USD, and a stop-loss set above 1655 USD.

3. Non-farm payroll data scenario response

◦ Data exceeds expectations (new jobs >150k): Rate hike expectations rise. If the price effectively breaks below 1545 USD, follow with short positions, targeting the 1500 and 1450 USD zones.

◦ Data falls short of expectations (new jobs <80k): Rate cut expectations rise. If the price breaks above 1670 USD with volume, follow with long positions, targeting around 1720 USD.

◦ Data meets expectations (100k-130k): Maintain a range-bound approach, focusing on buying low and selling high, avoiding chasing gains or selling into declines.

The above is purely technical analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Contract trading carries high leverage risk, so please manage your positions carefully.
#沃什宣告终结前瞻指引