I. Current Market Overview

As of the early morning of July 2, 2026, BTC perpetual contract prices are trading in the range of $59,800-$60,400. Yesterday, the market hit a low of $57,758 and then staged a V-shaped rebound, peaking around $61,300 in the early hours before retreating under pressure. Overall, it is in a technical repair phase within a descending channel. Market sentiment is cautious, with continued capital outflows from spot ETFs, and the US dollar and Treasury yields remaining high, suppressing risk assets. The US June non-farm payroll data to be released at 8:30 PM Eastern Time will be the core catalyst for a short-term breakout, and market volatility is expected to increase significantly.

II. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Level

The medium-term bearish pattern has not reversed. Prices are trading below multiple EMA lines, with the moving average system maintaining a bearish arrangement; the MACD indicator is below the zero line, with green bars shrinking but no clear golden cross reversal signal; the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a shrinking volatility range and an approaching turning point; the $57,700 level corresponds to the miner cost line and a dense buying support zone, serving as a daily-level strong support.

4-Hour Level

Prices rebounded from the low of $57,758, have already moved above the lower Bollinger Band, and are currently heading toward the middle Bollinger Band at $60,700; short-term EMA5 and EMA10 have turned upward, forming short-term support, but EMA30 and EMA60 remain downward pressure, making the rebound essentially a repair rally within the descending channel; the MACD green bars are continuously shortening, with the DIF turning upward and approaching the DEA, indicating a slight recovery in bullish momentum, but the rebound lacks volume support, posing a high risk of a pullback after the rally.

Hourly Level

The short-term has completed a "drop-break-retest" rebound structure, with $59,400 being the previous breakout level and also overlapping with the hourly 60-period moving average, making it a key intraday bullish-bearish dividing line; if this level holds after testing, the short-term rebound structure can continue; if it breaks down effectively, the rebound will end, and prices will return to weak downside, retesting the previous low support.

III. Key Support and Resistance Levels

| Type | Price Range (USD) | Description |
|------|-------------------|-------------|
| Strong Resistance | 61,300-61,800 | Early morning high + structural resistance level, need to break with volume to open upside space |
| Short-term Resistance | 60,600-60,700 | 4-hour Bollinger Band middle + short-term moving average resistance |
| Short-term Support | 59,000-59,400 | Hourly 60-period MA + previous breakout retest level |
| Strong Support | 57,700-58,200 | Yesterday's low + miner cost line, dense buying support zone |

IV. Contract Trading Strategy

Before the non-farm data release, adopt a light position range-trading approach, strictly set stop-losses, and avoid the risk of large spikes during the data event:

1. If the price retraces and stabilizes in the range of $58,500-$59,200, you can lightly go long, targeting $59,900 and $60,700, with a stop-loss below $58,000.

2. If the price rebounds and faces resistance in the range of $60,600-$61,000, you can lightly short, targeting $59,400 and $58,800, with a stop-loss above $61,500.

3. Non-farm Data Scenario Response

◦ Data exceeds expectations (new jobs >150k): Rate hike expectations increase; if the price effectively breaks below $57,700, follow with short positions, targeting the $56,000-$56,700 range.

◦ Data misses expectations (new jobs <80k): Rate cut expectations increase; if the price breaks above $61,800 with volume, follow with long positions, targeting around $63,000.

◦ Data meets expectations (100k-130k): Maintain range-bound thinking, mainly buy low and sell high, avoid chasing rallies or selling off.

The above is only technical analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Contract trading carries high leverage risk; please manage your positions carefully.
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