I. Current Market Overview

As of the morning of July 2, 2026, the ETH contract price is oscillating in the 1610-1625 USD range, generally following BTC's low-level recovery trajectory but with significantly weaker rebound strength than BTC. Yesterday, it bottomed out near 1550 USD alongside the broader market and stabilized, then surged to around 1630 USD in the early hours before retreating under pressure. It is currently in a technical recovery phase within a descending channel. Tonight's US non-farm payrolls data will act as a catalyst for short-term breakout, and volatility is likely to increase.

II. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Level

The medium-term bearish structure has not reversed. The price is trading below all medium- and long-term moving averages such as MA20 and MA50, with the moving average system displaying a standard bearish arrangement. The MACD indicator is below the zero line, and while the green bars have narrowed, a clear golden cross has not formed. Downward momentum has slowed, but reversal signals are absent. The RSI has rebounded to around 35, still in the weak zone. The rebound highs continue to decline, and the descending channel structure is intact. The 1500 USD level serves as the daily-level core psychological and technical support.

4-Hour Level

The price has initiated an oversold bounce from the 1550 USD low and is currently testing resistance near the middle Bollinger Band at around 1630 USD. Short-term EMA5 and EMA10 have turned upward, providing immediate support, but EMA30 and EMA60 remain diverging downward. The rebound is essentially a recovery within the descending channel. The Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, volatility is compressing, and a turning point is approaching. Before the data release tonight, the market is likely to maintain range-bound oscillation.

Hourly Level

In the short term, the price is oscillating in a narrow range of 1590-1630 USD. The 1580-1590 USD zone is the previous breakout retracement level and also coincides with the hourly 60-period moving average, making it the key intraday support/resistance pivot. If this zone holds, the short-term rebound still has upward momentum. If it is broken effectively, the rebound structure will end, and the market will return to weak downward movement, retesting the previous low.

III. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Type Price Range (USD) Description
Strong Resistance 1650-1670 20-period MA + previous platform high; only a volume-backed breakout can reverse short-term weakness
Short-term Resistance 1625-1635 Early morning rebound high + 4-hour middle Bollinger Band
Short-term Support 1580-1590 Hourly 60-period MA + short-term breakout retracement level
Strong Support 1545-1555 Yesterday's low + recent dense trading support zone
Core Support Around 1500 Daily-level psychological level + on-chain dense position zone; medium-term bullish/bearish lifeline

IV. Contract Trading Reference

ETH has strong correlation with BTC but weaker rebound strength. Before the non-farm payrolls data, adopt a light position range-bound approach with strict stop-loss settings:

1. If the price stabilizes after a pullback to the 1580-1595 USD range, consider a light long position with targets at 1625 and 1645 USD, and a stop-loss below 1570 USD.

2. If the price faces resistance after a rebound to the 1630-1645 USD range, consider a light short position with targets at 1600 and 1585 USD, and a stop-loss above 1655 USD.

3. If the price effectively breaks below 1545 USD with volume tonight, follow with a short position targeting around 1500 USD; if it breaks above 1670 USD with volume, the short-term weakness will be reversed, and follow with a long position targeting around 1720 USD.

Risk Warning: Tonight's US non-farm payrolls data will impact the crypto market. ETH's volatility is usually greater than BTC's, so be wary of significant wicking risk. Contract trading carries inherent high leverage. The above is purely technical analysis and does not constitute any investment advice.

#沃什宣告终结前瞻指引 $ETH