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Perpetual contract inventor Arthur Hayes: AI bubble most likely to burst in 2028

MarsBitNews
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Abstract generation in progress
On June 26, Arthur Hayes stated during an appearance on the "Bonnie Blockchain" podcast that if he had to guess when the AI bubble would burst, he believes the most likely time would be 2028. His reasoning is a simple calculation: most of this round of AI debt was incurred between 2024 and 2026, while the actual useful life of GPUs is only two years, yet Wall Street depreciates them over six years. Two and a half years later, will the H100 and Blackwell chips purchased at high prices still generate enough revenue? If, by then, Chinese models perform just as well, running on Huawei chips at only one-tenth the price, the entire economic logic of Western data centers would evaporate on the spot.
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