I. Current Market Overview

As of the morning of July 2, 2026, BTC futures prices are oscillating within the 59800-60400 USD range. Yesterday, prices first dipped to a low of 57758 USD and then staged a V-shaped recovery, rallying to around 61300 USD in the early morning before facing resistance and pulling back. Overall, it presents a pattern of low-level consolidation and repair, with cautious market sentiment. The US non-farm payroll data tonight will be an important catalyst for short-term price action.

II. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Level

The medium-term bearish pattern has not reversed, with prices trading below multiple EMA lines, showing a bearish alignment. The MACD indicator is below the zero line; while the green bars have contracted, there is no clear golden cross reversal signal. The Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, indicating increased volatility and an approaching turning point, with bulls and bears entering a critical phase.

4-Hour Level

Prices have started a technical rebound from the low of 57758 USD, already standing above the lower Bollinger Band and challenging the middle band at 60675 USD. Short-term EMA lines remain bearish, with prices suppressed by multiple MAs such as EMA30 and EMA60, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rebound. The MACD green bars are continuously shortening, with DIF turning up and approaching DEA, indicating some recovery in bullish momentum. However, the rebound lacks volume support, making it prone to pullback after an upswing. Overall, it remains in a repair phase within the descending channel.

Hourly Level

Yesterday completed a short-term bullish structure of 'dip - retest - breakout', with 59400 USD being the prior breakout point and also the 60-period moving average on the hourly chart, making it a key intraday bull-bear watershed. If this level holds and triggers a rebound, the short-term bullish structure can continue. If it is effectively broken, the market will weaken early and retest the previous low support.

III. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Type Price Range (USD) Description
Key Resistance 61300-61800 Overnight high + structural resistance level; must hold on volume to open rebound space
Short-term Resistance 60600-60700 Bollinger middle band + short-term MA suppression level
Short-term Support 59000-59400 Hourly 60-period MA + prior breakout level
Key Support 57700-58200 Yesterday's low + miner cost line, dense buying area

IV. Contract Trading Reference

The short-term approach is mainly range-bound trading. Avoid heavy positions before the NFP data, and strictly set stop losses:

1. If prices stabilize upon retracing to the 58500-59200 range, you can lightly take long positions, targeting 59900 and 60700 USD, with a stop loss set below 58000 USD.

2. If prices face resistance upon rebounding to the 60600-61000 range, you can lightly take short positions, targeting 59400 and 58800 USD, with a stop loss set above 61500 USD.

3. If prices break above 61800 USD with volume tonight, you can follow the trend with long positions, targeting around 63000 USD. If prices effectively break below 57700 USD, bearish space opens, with the next target at the 56000-56700 USD range.
Risk Warning: The US non-farm payroll data tonight will affect the crypto market, so be cautious of significant wick movements. Futures trading inherently carries high leverage. The above is only technical analysis and does not constitute any investment advice.
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