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1️⃣ Yesterday, low-position sectors in A-shares collectively rebounded, with comprehensive finance, agriculture/forestry/fishing, non-bank finance, and pharmaceuticals leading the gains, while tech sectors broadly retreated, intensifying the rotation between high and low positions. This phenomenon is not limited to A-shares; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index diverged from the Nasdaq and S&P 500, with rotation signals also appearing overseas.
2️⃣ The market generally doubts the sustainability of this rotation: on one hand, tech has not shown topping signals; on the other hand, low-position sectors lack bottom formations and fundamental changes, with low valuation being their only relative advantage at present.
3️⃣ For sectors rebounding from the bottom, they need to be treated differently based on trend status. Sectors still in a downtrend (e.g., food & beverage, consumer, pharmaceuticals), without fundamental changes, have an extremely low probability of a V-shaped reversal. The confirmatory strength of the first rebound wave is insufficient, and a pullback observation is usually required.
4️⃣ Overseas tech sectors have entered a trading range, or a consolidation zone. The probability of a direct breakdown is low, but the duration of this consolidation is unpredictable. A breakout to the upside often requires new fundamental catalysts. For tech sectors, the frequency of fundamental catalysts is relatively high.