**#黄金早报 #| July 2** 🪨

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**Core Data**

| Metric | Price | Change |
|------|------|--------|
| XAU/USD | **$4,044** | +0.97% (Rebounded after dropping below $4K yesterday) |
| AU9999 | **¥886.5/gram** | +1.76% (7/1 close: 868.8) |
| Branded Jewelry | **¥1,202-1,213/gram** | Chow Tai Fook ¥1,208 / Chow Sang Sang ¥1,213 |
| Shui Bei wholesale | **¥1,047-1,057/gram** | — |
| Bank gold bars | **¥886-900/gram** | BOC ¥886 / ICBC ¥893 / SPDB ¥900 |
| Recycling | **¥855-881/gram** | — |

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**Major Events Last Night**

1. **After the gold price broke below $4,000, a technical rebound kicked in** — On 7/1, the intraday low hit $3,940, then rebounded to $4,044 (the intraday high-low range exceeded $150), with fierce competition between bulls and bears
2. **Margin increase** — The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that after the close on 7/2, gold futures margin will be raised to 16% (leverage reduced from 10x to 6x), directly suppressing speculative momentum
3. **World Gold Council mid-year report** — In H2, gold will maintain broad range volatility, with a reasonable range of **$4,100 ±5%**
4. **Central banks added holdings for 19 consecutive months** — Long-term bottom support remains in place
5. **⚠️ Tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls data** — The week’s most important catalyst; whether the data is strong or weak will directly determine the validity of the $3,940 support

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**Key Levels**

- **Resistance**: $4,100 (volatility center) → $4,150-4,200
- **Support**: $4,000 (psychological level; already broken) → **$3,940** (today’s intraday low; lifeline) → $3,880-3,900 → $3,850

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**Strategy**

Qualitative assessment: **Technical rebound, not a reversal.** Yesterday’s rebound momentum was driven by overseas interest-rate positives + a repair of oversold sentiment.

- Rebound targets: $4,050-4,100; strong overhead pressure at $4,150
- Tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls is the turning point: weak data → rebound to $4,050-4,100; strong data → after $3,940 breaks, look at $3,850-3,900
- Allocation perspective: central banks are buying, and the long-term logic has not been broken. Building positions in batches is better than chasing rallies or selling in a panic

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**Institutional Target Prices (Updated)**

- Goldman Sachs: year-end **$4,900** (↓$500)
- Deutsche Bank: Q3 **$4,300** (↓22%); warns that 3-4 potential rate hikes could push prices down to $3,800
- Citigroup: March **$4,000**; extreme risk **$3,500**
- Morgan Stanley: **$5,200** (↓$500)

Current $4,044 is already 17% below Goldman’s target price. The market is torn between “the bull market is over” and “a technical correction.”

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**Key Time Points**

- 📌 **Today**: the margin increase takes effect after the close on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)
- 📌 **Tonight 20:30**: U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls data release (core catalyst)
- 📌 **Mid-July**: WGC releases preliminary June ETF outflow data
- 📌 **7/29**: Federal Reserve policy meeting