US stock market closing | Iran’s US dispute resolution understanding is violated, Dow Jones reverses after breaking through its peak, Micron plunges more than 10%, Nasdaq falls 0.7%

Iran’s negotiating delegation accuses the US of violating the understanding and commitments, saying it will set up a monitoring group to review US violations. In addition, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at a European Central Bank meeting, said the Fed will open a new policy track, but he declined to provide guidance on interest rates. Market investment sentiment remains cautious, with major volatility in US stocks: the Dow first rose 423 points and then reversed, while AI hardware stocks plunged, dragging down the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese-concept stocks, surged sharply by 2.9% against the trend.

Here’s a look at the close of the US stock market:

The Dow closed at 52,305 points, down 13 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.22%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.66%. Meta (US: META), which has been aggressively competing for chips in recent years, was reportedly selling off its remaining computing power, casting a shadow over AI hardware stock orders. Meta closed up 8.8%.

Chip stocks came under pressure, as fears grew that “mad buyers” are cutting orders. Micron (US: MU) slid by more than 10%. In an interview, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said the current imbalance between supply and demand for chip products is not caused by memory chip manufacturers alone. He believes that in recent years some customers have pushed hard to cut prices during negotiations, resulting in the industry’s capacity investment being insufficient—meaning the industry was unable to plan ahead and keep up with the demand surge unleashed by the AI industry boom.

The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX, a space exploration technology company, has developed a prototype AI device similar to a mobile phone. SpaceX’s share price still fell 7.8% in line with the broader market.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran and head of the Iranian technical negotiating delegation, said that at the trilateral meeting among Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan held in Doha on Wednesday, the Iranian delegation proposed and reviewed the US’s violations of the commitments in the US-Iran memorandum of understanding regarding ending the war in Lebanon.

He also clarified that the Iranian and US delegations did not hold a meeting in Doha. Earlier market reports indicated that the US and Iran were conducting indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, with Qatar and Pakistan serving as mediators, and that the two sides would not meet directly.

International oil prices continued to fall. New York crude oil futures declined 1.32%, closing at 68.58 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures dropped 1.89%, closing at 71.57. Gold prices wavered but held steady.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh gave a speech at a European Central Bank forum, during which he mentioned that the Fed will open a brand-new policy route to determine better policy. However, he stressed that it will not provide any forward-looking guidance, and he expects intense internal policy disagreements at the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He reiterated its determination to bring inflation back to the 2% target, emphasizing that the central bank’s long-standing independence will not change.

The US June ADP employment figures—often dubbed the “mini non-farm”—showed an increase of 98,000 jobs, lower than the expected 118,000. The May figure was maintained at 122,000.

Data from human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by US companies in June fell 53% month-over-month to 45,849 people, and fell 4% year-over-year.

Intraday market:

【23:00】Meta surges 10%, shifting into the cloud computing market and selling off excess computing power. Chip stocks plunge. Dow rises 85 points.

【21:30】Fed Chair Warsh: Expects intense internal disagreement at the July rate-setting meeting. US dollar and US Treasury yields rebound. Dow falls 166 points, chip stocks plunge.

【18:00】The US and Iran are conducting indirect technical talks, with oil and gold prices falling at the same time. Dow futures down 124 points.

【17:00】 【AI+ Anthropic】The US Department of Commerce lifts export controls. Anthropic will resume access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models starting tomorrow.

【16:40】 【AAPL】The US Supreme Court accepts Apple’s appeal. It will review the “contempt of court” ruling in Epic Games’s antitrust case.

【16:30】 【Trump】Last year, he made more than 9.3 billion yuan from crypto; his personal net worth surged to 59.2 billion.

【16:20】 【TSLA】Tesla tests its first Cybercab. The US suggests exempting brake pedal installation.

【16:00】 【Layoff wave】Microsoft reportedly plans to restart large-scale layoffs, affecting thousands of roles. The Xbox division is among the hardest hit areas.

Here’s a look at the close of the US stock market:

With strong performance from AI stocks, SanDisk (US: SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (US: AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (US: MRVL) rose 7.3%, Taiwan Semiconductor (US: TSM) rose 4.9%, Nebius (US: NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (US: CRWV) rose 4.2%. However, Micron (US: MU) rose only 0.8%.

Musk’s “twin” companies were up: Tesla (US: TSLA; Tesla) rose 2.1%, SpaceX (US: SPCX) rose 4.1%, and closed at 170.86.

US bond prices fell. The yield on the US 10-year note rose to 4.465% as US data remained strong, especially with JOLTS job openings reaching 7.594 million, exceeding the expected 7.296 million. At the same time, with inflation expectations, pressure to raise interest rates increased.

As the US and Iran talk through intermediaries in Doha, the market waits to see developments. Oil prices were soft: New York crude oil fell 1% to 70.07; Brent crude oil fell 0.3% to 72.92. Spot gold prices moved little, at 4,008.38.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the US Middle East envoy Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with the mediators to discuss negotiations, but there are currently no plans to arrange high-level talks between the US and Iran.

In total for the first half of the year, the Dow rose 8.9%, the S&P 500 rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 12.8%, continuing the uptrend for the past three consecutive years.

Bitcoin was under pressure, falling below 60,000 and temporarily trading at 58,482, down 3% on the day. Coinbase (US: COIN) fell 3.6%, Strategy (US: MSTR) fell 6.2%, and Circle fell 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage to practical commercial applications, corporate capital expenditures will continue to receive support. At the same time, the market is also placing greater emphasis on distinguishing companies that truly benefit from the long-term AI development trend from those mainly driven by market sentiment.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continuously provided—see: Next page

Intraday market:

【14:59】Dow futures up 15 points to 52,587. S&P 500 futures up 6 points to 7,506. Nasdaq futures up 71 points, or 0.2%, to 30,124.

【14:59】Oil prices fell 1%: New York crude oil fell 1.1% to 70; Brent crude oil fell 1.4% to 72.14. Gold prices were steady. New York gold futures rose 0.1% to 4,043; spot gold rose 0.3% to 4,028.

【14:07】 【Fed personnel】The US Supreme Court overruled a 91-year precedent and expanded the president’s power to remove senior officials from independent agencies. The Fed’s independence receives limited protection; Cook will remain in office temporarily.

【12:39】 【US stock analysis】The Dow closes above 52,000 points for the first time. Analysis: It is not advisable to sell tech stocks at the current level and buy traditional stocks. AI-related shares are still expected to be pursued.

【12:33】 【Oil price trend】Morgan Stanley again cuts its oil price forecast, the second time in two weeks. Brent crude is expected to be 80 in Q4.

【11:07】 【AAPL】Apple’s India plant in Tata was hacked. iPhone 18 prototype photos, chips, supplier lists, and other data leaked to the dark web.

【09:43】 【Japanese yen trend】The yen breaks below 162, falling against the Hong Kong dollar below 4.82. A new 40-year low. Analysis: Even if intervention happens, the effect will be temporary.

【01:32】 【META】WhatsApp launches a username feature, allowing 3 billion users to hide phone numbers from public view.

【00:57】 【GOOGL】Google Cloud uploads scientific research AI models, targeting R&D for drugs and chip materials.

【00:19】 【AAPL】Apple pushes back against India’s antitrust investigation, criticizing the regulatory report as overly careless.

====Below are US stock market conditions for June 29====

Monday: Nasdaq rises more than 2%, Dow up 306 points. Yen hits a 40-year low. Special note: Will ensure that Fed governor Cook does not make key decisions

As tensions in the Middle East eased, investors bought US tech stocks, boosting US stocks on Monday. The Nasdaq rose more than 2%, and the Dow once surged 435 points. The market focused on clues from Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s speech at the European Central Bank annual conference this week, looking for hints about the future direction of interest rates. The yen-to-dollar exchange rate hit a 40-year low.

Here’s a look at the close of the US stock market:

The Dow closed at 52,182 points, up 306 points. The S&P 500 rose 1.18%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The US Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently lacks the power to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, stating that monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. Trump responded on social media, saying he will take corresponding actions in Cook’s lawsuit to ensure she will not make crucial decisions on matters related to Fed monetary policy.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s ruling reaffirms a long-standing principle supporting sound economic management: the Fed must make all policy decisions entirely based on evidence and independent judgment, free from political interference.

SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index as a constituent stock next month; its stock rose 7.1%. AI software stocks performed strongly: Alphabet was officially added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents, with its stock up 4.8%. Tesla (Tesla) rose 8.5%.

A group of US companies filed a class action lawsuit against Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron in an antitrust case. The allegations include that prices increased by up to 700% over 4 years, and production cuts of traditional DRAM under the name of HBM. The lawsuit was filed on June 25, last Thursday—perfectly aligned with the time when memory stocks sharply fell. Micron fell again by 9.6% and then turned to close up 1.1%; SanDisk (US: SNDK) had fallen 9.4% but narrowed its losses to close down 1.9%.

The plaintiffs accuse Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron of exploiting their absolute dominant position of more than 90% in the global DRAM market. They allegedly claim that production capacity is being shifted to higher-profit high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in response to the AI boom, but in reality, they are artificially creating shortages. They use HBM as a “smokescreen” and cooperate to reduce output of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, intentionally creating severe shortages in the retail market. As a result, the price of ordinary DRAM has surged by about 700% over the past four years. The plaintiffs’ economic reasoning is that in a healthy competitive market, a dramatic price surge should attract manufacturers to “expand production” to capture market share; however, the three giants instead chose the opposite—“jointly contracting supply,” showing clear signs of collusive monopoly.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court has paved the way for President Trump to freely remove officials from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) other long-term independent, politically insulated agencies. For agencies that have long been protected by politics, this is a historic dismantling. The ruling greatly expands the president’s power and influence. The ruling overturns the nearly 100-year-old precedent of “Humphrey’s Executor.” That precedent held that commissioners of independent agencies could not be removed without cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major win,” confirming his power to replace officials: “As the sitting President who won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I feel incredibly honored—it is one of the most important rulings made regarding Presidential power.”

However, the 6-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve, consistent with signals previously released by the Supreme Court—namely that the court views this central bank differently. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has a “unique historical tradition.”

Trump agreed to stop attacking Iran and resumed talks in Doha on Tuesday. New York crude oil rose 2.2% to close at 70.75; Brent crude oil rose 1.61% to close at 73.15.

Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, warned that inflation is still too high, but there are signs that price pressures may ease soon. Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, said that Thursday’s jobs report could show “another strong number.” He said the productivity boom brought by AI has a deflationary effect, so the case for supporting rate hikes is not that strong.

The US dollar index eased, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.381%.

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per dollar, breaking below the low of July 2024 and hitting a new low since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will step in again to support the yen.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continuously provided—see: Next page

Intraday market:

【21:30】The Dow opened up 164 points at 52,040. The Nasdaq rose 1.1% to 25,578. The S&P 500 opened up 52 points at 7,406.

【19:17】Dow futures rose 168 points, Nasdaq futures rose 1%, and S&P 500 futures rose 45 points.

【15:18】Dow futures rose 95 points to 52,304. S&P 500 futures rose 37 points to 7,439. Nasdaq futures rose 219 points, or 0.7%, to 29,587.

【15:18】New York crude oil rose 1% to 69.92; Brent crude oil rose 0.5% to 72.32. New York gold futures fell 0.5% to 4,074; spot gold fell 0.7% to 4,058.

【15:01】 【AI+ Compute】Compute cannot keep up with demand. Google reportedly “shuts the tap” on Meta’s Gemini usage, limiting Gemini usage caps.

【12:44】 【Memory】Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly plan to invest 100 trillion won to expand AI semiconductors. Partnering with the Korean government, they will announce “three major projects” at 2 PM Monday. Morningstar breaks down concerns about expansion.

【11:40】 【Breaking Tradition】To mark the US’s 250th anniversary, the US launches a limited edition “Patriot Passport.” Trump becomes the first sitting president to appear on a passport.

【10:46】 【AI+Anthropic】Austria urges the EU to attract Anthropic to set up there, aiming to break through US export restrictions.

【10:42】 【AAPL】Apple reportedly seeks approval to purchase chips from ChangXin Memory to avoid being added to the entity list. Guo Mingyi: The truth is the 2027 memory supply-demand gap crisis. Citi: Enhances ChangXin Memory’s global position.

【06:46】 【Iran Crisis】Oil prices rise. Axios: The US and Iran stop attacking each other, negotiating in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.

【06:00】ChatGPT developer OpenAI reportedly delays its IPO to next year, pressuring AI hardware stocks. US stocks were volatile and weak last Friday: the Dow fell as much as 305 points, while the Nasdaq fell for 5 straight days. The Dow closed at 51,876 points, down 44 points. The S&P 500 dipped 0.05%; the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

Here’s a look at the close of the US stock market:

For the week’s US stock market developments, details: 【US stock market close】OpenAI IPO reportedly delayed to next year; Nasdaq drops another 0.2%. Kashkari expects one rate hike this year. Dow gives back 44 points.