US stocks close | Iran says the US breached the memorandum of understanding and commitment; after the Dow breaks above its peak, it turns lower—Micron plunges more than 10%, and the Nasdaq falls 0.7%

The Iranian negotiating delegation accused the US of breaching the commitments under the understanding and said it will set up a monitoring group to review US violations. It also follows remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh (Kevin Warsh), who said in a speech at a European Central Bank meeting that the Fed will open up a new policy direction, but refused to provide guidance on interest rates. Market investment sentiment stayed cautious, with US stocks experiencing sharp volatility: after the Dow briefly rose 423 points, it reversed and fell, while AI hardware shares plunged, dragging down the Nasdaq. Reflecting the performance of Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rebounded sharply against the trend, up 2.9%.

The Dow closed at 52,305 points, down 13 points; the S&P 500 fell back 0.22%; and the Nasdaq slid 0.66%. Meta (US: META), which has been aggressively competing for chips in recent years, was reportedly selling its remaining computing power, casting a shadow over AI hardware stock orders. Meta rose 8.8%.

With chip stocks under pressure amid fears of order cuts by “frenzied buyers,” Micron (US: MU) plunged by more than 10%. In an interview, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that the current imbalance in supply and demand for chip products is not caused by only memory chip manufacturers. He believed that in recent years some customers have aggressively driven down prices during negotiations, resulting in insufficient industry capacity investment—meaning the industry did not plan ahead and could not keep up with demand unleashed by the AI industry’s explosion.

The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX, a space exploration technology company, has developed a smartphone-like artificial intelligence (AI) prototype. SpaceX shares continued to fall along with the broader market, down 7.8%.

Kazem Gharibabadi (Kazem Gharibabadi), Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran and head of the Iranian technical negotiation delegation, said that on Wednesday during the Iran–Qatar–Pakistan trilateral talks held in Doha, the Iranian delegation proposed and reviewed the US’s commitments under the US–Iran memorandum of understanding regarding ending the war in Lebanon, which the US violated.

He also clarified that the Iranian and US delegations did not meet in Doha. Market sources had earlier said the US and Iran are conducting indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, with Qatar and Pakistan serving as mediators, and that the two sides will not meet directly.

International oil prices continued to retreat: New York crude oil futures fell 1.32% to close at $68.58 a barrel; Brent crude oil futures dropped 1.89% to close at $71.57. Gold prices repeatedly steadied.

At a speech at the European Central Bank forum, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh mentioned that the Fed will open an entirely new policy route to decide on better policies, but emphasized it will not provide any forward-looking guidance and expects that the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will see intense internal policy disagreements. He reiterated the determination to return inflation to the 2% target and stressed that the central bank’s long-standing independence will not change.

US June ADP employment, nicknamed the “mini non-farm payrolls,” increased by 98,000, below expectations of 118,000, while the May figure was kept at 122,000.

Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by US companies in June fell 53% month-over-month to 45,849, and fell 4% year-over-year.

Intraday performance:

【23:00】Meta surged 10%, transitioning to enter the cloud computing market and selling excess computing power; chip stocks plunged; the Dow rose 85 points

【21:30】Fed Chairman Warsh: Expects intense internal disagreements at the July policy meeting; the US dollar and US Treasury yields rebounded; the Dow fell 166 points and chip stocks plunged

【18:00】US and Iran are conducting indirect technical talks; oil and gold prices both fell; Dow futures fell 124 points

【17:00】 【AI+ Anthropic】The US Commerce Department removes export controls; Anthropic will resume access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models starting tomorrow

【16:40】 【AAPL】The US Supreme Court accepts Apple’s appeal; it will review the “contempt of court” ruling in the Epic Games antitrust case

【16:30】 【Trump】Last year he made more than 9.3 billion yuan from cryptocurrencies; his personal net worth jumped to 59.2 billion

【16:20】 【TSLA】Tesla tests its first Cybercab; the US suggests removing the requirement to install brake pedals

【16:00】 【Layoff wave】Microsoft reportedly plans to resume large-scale layoffs affecting thousands of positions; the Xbox division is the hardest hit

See US stock market close in real time:

AI stocks performed well. SanDisk (US: SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (US: AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (US: MRVL) rose 7.3%, Taiwan Semiconductor (US: TSM) rose 4.9%, Nebius (US: NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (US: CRWV) rose 4.2%. However, Micron (US: MU) rose only 0.8%.

Musk’s “twin” stocks rose. Tesla (US: TSLA; Tesla) rose 2.1%, SpaceX (US: SPCX) rose 4.1%, closing at $170.86.

US Treasury prices fell, with the US 10-year yield rising to 4.465%. This was because US data remained strong, especially JOLTS job openings reaching 7.594 million—above the expected 7.296 million. Meanwhile, with inflation expectations, pressure for rate hikes increased.

The US and Iran are talking through intermediaries in Doha. Markets are watching for progress, and oil prices remained soft. New York crude oil futures fell 1% to $70.07, and Brent crude oil futures fell 0.3% to $72.92. Spot gold prices barely moved, at $4,008.38.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that US Middle East envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, will arrive in Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss negotiation matters, but there are currently no plans to arrange high-level talks between the US and Iran.

For the first half of the year, the Dow rose 8.9%, the S&P 500 rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 12.8%, extending the past three years of consecutive gains.

Bitcoin was under pressure, falling below $60,000 and temporarily quoted at $58,482, down 3% on the day. Coinbase (US: COIN) fell 3.6%, Strategy (US: MSTR) fell 6.2%, and Circle fell 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said that artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage to real commercial applications, corporate capital spending continues to receive support. At the same time, the market is also placing more emphasis on distinguishing companies that genuinely benefit from the long-term AI development trend from individual stocks that are mainly driven by market sentiment.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated. For details, please see: Next page

Intraday performance:

【14:59】Dow futures rose 15 points to 52,587; S&P 500 futures rose 6 points to 7,506; Nasdaq futures rose 71 points or 0.2% to 30,124.

【14:59】Oil prices fell 1%. New York crude oil futures fell 1.1% to $70; Brent crude oil futures fell 1.4% to $72.14. Gold prices were steady: New York gold futures rose 0.1% to $4,043; spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,028.

【14:07】 【Fed personnel】Overturning the 91-year precedent, the US Supreme Court expands the president’s power to fire senior officials of independent agencies; limited protection for Fed independence; Cook to remain in office temporarily

【12:39】 【US stock analysis】The Dow closes above 52,000 points for the first time. Analysis: It is not advisable to sell tech stocks at the current level to buy traditional stocks. AI-related stocks are expected to remain in demand.

【12:33】 【Oil price trend】Morgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecast again, the second time in two weeks; Brent for Q4 is seen at $80

【11:07】 【AAPL】Apple’s Indian plant Tata was hit by a hacker attack; leaked iPhone 18 real photos, chip information, and supplier lists to the dark web

【09:43】 【Japanese yen trend】The yen breaks below the 162 level, falling past 4.82 against the Hong Kong dollar, and hits a new 40-year low. Analysis: Even if intervention happens, the effect will be short-lived.

【01:32】 【META】WhatsApp launches a username feature; 3 billion users can avoid showing their public phone numbers

【00:57】 【GOOGL】Google Cloud lists research AI models, targeting drug and chip material R&D

【00:19】 【AAPL】Apple counters India’s anti-monopoly investigation, criticizing regulators’ report as too sloppy

====Below are US stock market conditions from June 29====

Monday: Nasdaq jumps more than 2%, Dow rises 306 points, yen at 40-year low. Focus: ensure Fed governor Cook will not make key decisions

With tensions in the Middle East easing, investors bought US tech stocks, lifting US stocks on Monday. The Nasdaq jumped more than 2%, and the Dow at one point rose 435 points. Markets focused on remarks by Fed Chairman Warsh at this week’s European Central Bank annual meeting, searching for clues on where interest rates may go next. The yen weakened against the dollar to a 40-year low.

See US stock market close:

The Dow closed at 52,182 points, up 306 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.18%; and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The US Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently has no power to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, stating that monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. Trump responded on social media, saying he will take appropriate action regarding the Cook lawsuit to ensure she will not make crucial decisions on Fed monetary policy issues.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s decision reaffirms a long-standing principle that supports sound economic management: the Fed must make all policy decisions based entirely on evidence and independent judgment without political interference.

SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index component next month; its share price rose 7.1%. AI software stocks performed strongly: Alphabet was officially added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average components, rising 4.8%. Tesla rose 8.5%.

A group of US companies filed a collective antitrust lawsuit, accusing Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The allegations include a 700% increase in prices over 4 years and production cuts to traditional DRAM under the name of HBM. The lawsuit was filed on June 25, last Thursday—perfectly matching the timing of the sharp selloff in memory stocks. Micron fell another 9.6%, then reversed to rise 1.1% at the close; SanDisk (US: SNDK) had fallen 9.4% and narrowed its decline to 1.9% at the close.

The plaintiffs allege that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron used their over 90% absolute dominance in the global DRAM market. While they claim—on the surface—that they are shifting production capacity to higher-profit high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in response to the AI boom, in practice they allegedly artificially manufactured a shortage, using HBM as a “smokescreen.” By coordinating to cut production of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, they deliberately created a severe shortage in the retail market, causing ordinary DRAM prices to surge by about 700% over the past four years. The plaintiffs’ economic rationale says that in a healthy competitive market, a spike in prices should encourage manufacturers to “expand production” to gain market share—but the three giants did the opposite by “jointly reducing supply,” showing an obvious collusive monopoly understanding.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court cleared the way for President Trump to freely fire officials from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) institutions that have long been independent from politics. For institutions long protected by politics, this is a historic dismantling. The ruling will greatly expand the president’s power and influence. It overturned “Humphrey’s Executor,” a precedent with nearly a century of history. That precedent held that commissioners of independent agencies may not be fired without specific cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major victory,” confirming his power to remove officials: “As the sitting president who won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I feel extremely honored. This is one of the most important rulings regarding presidential power.”

However, the 6-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve, consistent with signals the Supreme Court had previously released—suggesting the Supreme Court views this central bank differently. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has a “unique historical tradition.”

Trump agreed to stop attacking Iran and resumed negotiations in Doha on Tuesday. New York crude oil futures rose 2.2% to close at $70.75, and Brent crude oil futures rose 1.61% to close at $73.15.

Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflation is still too high, but there are signs that price pressures may ease soon. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Thursday’s employment report may show “another strong number.” He said the productivity boom brought by AI has a deflationary effect, so the current case for raising rates is not that strong.

The US dollar index softened, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.381%.

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per dollar, breaking the July 2024 low and hitting a new low since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will step in again to support the yen.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated. For details, please see: Next page

Intraday performance:

【21:30】Dow opened up 164 points to 52,040. Nasdaq rose 1.1% to 25,578. S&P opened up 52 points to 7,406.

【19:17】Dow futures rose 168 points, Nasdaq futures rose 1%, and S&P futures rose 45 points.

【15:18】Dow futures rose 95 points to 52,304; S&P futures rose 37 points to 7,439; Nasdaq futures rose 219 points or 0.7% to 29,587.

【15:18】New York crude oil futures rose 1% to $69.92; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.5% to $72.32. New York gold futures fell 0.5% to $4,074; spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,058.

【15:01】 【AI+Computing Power】Computing power cannot keep up with demand; Google reportedly “cuts off” Meta by limiting Gemini usage limits

【12:44】 【Memory】Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly plan to invest 10 trillion won to expand AI semiconductors; along with the Korean government at 2 PM Monday they will announce “Three Major Projects”; Morningstar breaks down hidden risks in expansion plans

【11:40】 【Breaking tradition】US marks its 250th anniversary by issuing a limited “Patriot Passport”; Trump becomes the first sitting US president to appear on a passport

【10:46】 【AI+Anthropic】Austria urges the EU to recruit Anthropic to relocate, hoping to break through US export restrictions

【10:42】 【AAPL】Apple is reportedly seeking approval to buy chips from CXMT from Changxin Memory, to avoid being added to the entity list. Kuo Ming-Chi: The truth is the 2027 memory supply-and-demand gap crisis. Citi: Boosts CXMT’s global standing

【06:46】 【Iran crisis】Oil prices rise. Axios: US and Iran stop attacking each other; negotiations for Tuesday on the Strait of Hormuz

【06:00】OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, reportedly delays its IPO to next year, pressuring AI hardware stocks. US stocks were mixed and slightly soft last Friday, with the Dow dropping as much as 305 points and the Nasdaq falling for 5 straight days. The Dow closed at 51,876 points, down 44 points; the S&P 500 edged down 0.05%; and the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

See US stock market close:

For last week’s US stock market developments, please see: [US stock close] OpenAI IPO delayed to next year; Nasdaq falls another 0.2%. Kashkari expects one rate hike this year; the Dow gives back 44 points.