【US Stock Pre-market】 The US and Iran are holding indirect technical talks; oil and gold prices both fall, and the Dow drops 124 points (updates continuously)

Market sources say that the United States and Iran are holding indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar. Qatar and Pakistan are serving as intermediaries, and the two sides will not meet directly. International oil prices continue to decline. New York crude oil futures fell 0.9% to $68.88 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell 0.9% to $72.28 per barrel. Gold prices remain weak. New York gold futures fell 0.9% to $4,002 per ounce, and spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,989 per ounce, falling below $4,000.

In pre-market trading, the three major U.S. stock indexes were slightly soft. Dow futures fell 124 points to 52,546; S&P 500 futures fell 16 points to 7,532; Nasdaq futures fell 145 points, or 0.5%, to 30,378.

On Wednesday, the United States will release June ADP employment change, the final reading of June S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, and the June ISM Manufacturing Index.

For focus stocks, chip-related stocks were weak in pre-market trading. Micron (MU) was down more than 3% in pre-market trading. In an interview, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that the current imbalance between supply and demand for chip products is not caused only by memory-chip manufacturers. He believes that in recent years, some customers have aggressively pushed down prices during negotiations, resulting in insufficient industry capacity investment—meaning the industry has not planned ahead and has been unable to keep up with the demand unleashed by the AI industry boom.

He also acknowledged that in 2023, certain customers cut industry prices to as low as one-third of the previous level. The price collapse pushed storage suppliers into a negative gross margin situation, leaving the entire industry with insufficient financial flexibility to invest in new capacity.

Intraday market snapshot:

【18:00】U.S. and Iran are holding indirect technical talks; oil and gold prices both plunge; Dow down 124 points

【17:00】 【AI+ Anthropic】U.S. Department of Commerce removes export controls; Anthropic will restore access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models starting tomorrow

【16:40】 【AAPL】U.S. Supreme Court accepts Apple’s appeal; hearing Epic Games antitrust case “contempt of court” ruling

【16:30】 【Trump】Last year’s crypto profits exceeded 9.3 billion yuan; personal net worth soars to 59.2 billion yuan

【16:20】 【TSLA】Tesla tests its first Cybercab; Tesla advises the U.S. to exempt the installation of brake pedal

【16:00】 【Layoff wave】Microsoft reportedly to restart large-scale layoffs involving thousands of positions; Xbox division is the hardest-hit area

See the U.S. stock market close here:

AI stocks performed well. SanDisk (SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose 7.3%, TSMC (TSM) rose 4.9%, Nebius (NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (CRWV) rose 4.2%. However, Micron (MU) rose only 0.8%.

The Musk siblings climbed. Tesla (TSLA; Tesla) rose 2.1%, and SpaceX (SPCX) rose 4.1%, closing at $170.86.

U.S. bond prices fell. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.465 basis points/“厘” (as quoted), as U.S. data remained strong—especially JOLTS job openings, which reached 7.594 million, exceeding the expected 7.296 million. At the same time, with inflation expectations, pressure to raise interest rates increased.

The United States and Iran are talking in Doha through intermediaries. The market is watching for progress. Oil prices were soft: New York crude oil futures fell 1% to $70.07, and Brent crude oil futures fell 0.3% to $72.92. Spot gold moved little, at $4,008.38.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that U.S. Middle East envoy Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with the mediators to discuss negotiation matters, but there are currently no plans to arrange a high-level meeting between the United States and Iran.

For the first half of the year, the Dow rose 8.9%, the S&P rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 12.8%, continuing the upward trend seen over the past three consecutive years.

Bitcoin was under pressure, falling below $60,000, and was temporarily at $58,482, down 3% on the day. Coinbase (COIN) fell 3.6%, Strategy (MSTR) fell 6.2%, and Circle fell 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said that artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage into real commercial applications, corporate capital expenditures continue to receive support. At the same time, the market is also placing greater emphasis on distinguishing companies that truly benefit from the long-term AI development trend from individual stocks mainly driven by market sentiment.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are constantly being updated. For details, see: Next page

Intraday market snapshot:

【14:59】Dow futures rose 15 points to 52,587; S&P futures rose 6 points to 7,506; Nasdaq futures rose 71 points, or 0.2%, to 30,124.

【14:59】Oil prices fell 1%. New York crude oil futures fell 1.1% to $70; Brent crude oil futures fell 1.4% to $72.14. Gold prices steadied: New York gold futures rose 0.1% to $4,043, and spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,028.

【14:07】 【Fed personnel】Overturning a 91-year precedent, U.S. Supreme Court expands the president’s power to dismiss senior officials; limited protection for Fed independence; Cook to remain in place for now

【12:39】 【U.S. stock analysis】Dow closes above 52,000 points for the first time; analyst: Not advisable to sell tech stocks at current levels to buy traditional stocks; AI-related shares still expected to be in demand

【12:33】 【Oil price outlook】Morgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecast again for the second time in two weeks; Brent in Q4 seen at $80

【11:07】 【AAPL】Apple’s India plant suffered a hacker attack; iPhone 18 real photos, chip information, and supplier lists leaked to the dark web

【09:43】 【Japanese yen outlook】The yen breaks below the 162 level; it falls below 4.82 against the Hong Kong dollar; new 40-year low. Analysis: Even if intervention is carried out, the effects may be temporary

【01:32】 【META】WhatsApp launches username feature; 3 billion users can avoid making phone numbers public

【00:57】 【GOOGL】Google Cloud uploads research AI models; targeting drug and chip materials R&D

【00:19】 【AAPL】Apple pushes back against India’s antitrust investigation; criticizes regulatory reports as too sloppy

====Below are June 29 U.S. stock market conditions====

Monday: Nasdaq jumps more than 2%; Dow up 306 points; yen at a 40-year low; Key point: Ensuring Fed Governor Cook will not make critical decisions

As the situation in the Middle East eased, investors snapped up U.S. technology stocks, lifting U.S. stocks higher on Monday. The Nasdaq bounced up more than 2%, and the Dow rose as much as 435 points. The market focused on remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh at this week’s European Central Bank annual conference, looking for clues about the direction of future interest rates. The yen versus the U.S. dollar hit a 40-year low.

See the U.S. stock market close here:

The Dow closed at 52,182 points, up 306 points; the S&P rose 1.18%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently has no power to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, saying monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. In response on social media, Trump said he will take appropriate actions regarding the Cook lawsuit to ensure she does not make crucial decisions on Fed monetary policy matters.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s ruling reaffirms a long-standing principle supporting sound economic management—namely that the Fed must make all policy decisions entirely based on evidence and independent judgment, without political interference.

SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index next month; the stock price rose 7.1%. AI software stocks performed strongly as well. Alphabet was officially added to the Dow; the stock rose 4.8%. Tesla (Tesla) rose 8.5%.

A group of U.S. companies filed a collective antitrust class-action lawsuit, accusing Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The alleged details include that over 4 years, price increases reached 700%, and that production was reduced for traditional DRAM under the name of HBM. The case was filed on June 25, which was last Thursday, coinciding with the period when memory stocks sharply plunged. Micron fell another 9.6%, then turned around and closed up 1.1%. SanDisk (SNDK) had fallen 9.4% but narrowed its decline to 1.9% at the close.

The plaintiffs accused Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron of leveraging their absolute dominance of more than 90% in the global DRAM market. While they claim this is to shift capacity to higher-profit high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in response to the AI boom, the plaintiffs argue that it is actually an artificial creation of shortages. They used HBM as a “smokescreen” to coordinate reductions in output of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, deliberately creating severe shortages in the retail market. As a result, the price of ordinary DRAM surged by about 700% over the past four years. The plaintiffs’ economic reasoning was that in a healthy competitive market, a price spike should incentivize manufacturers to “increase production” to win market share. However, the three giants instead chose to “jointly reduce supply,” indicating an obvious collusive monopoly.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court ruling paved the way for President Trump to freely dismiss officials at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) other agencies that have long operated independently of politics. For institutions that have long enjoyed political protection, this represents a historic dismantling. The ruling will greatly expand the president’s power and influence. It overturned the nearly 100-year-old precedent known as “Humphrey’s Executor,” which held that commissioners of independent agencies could not be removed without a specific cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major victory,” confirming that he has the power to replace officials: “As the sitting president who has won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I feel extremely honored—this is one of the most important rulings ever concerning presidential power.”

However, this 6-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve, consistent with the signals the Supreme Court had previously released—that the Supreme Court has a different view of this central bank. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has a “unique historical tradition.”

Trump also agreed to stop attacking Iran, and on Tuesday resumed peace talks in Doha. New York crude oil futures rose 2.2% and closed at $70.75, while Brent crude oil futures rose 1.61% and closed at $73.15.

Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflation is still too high, but there are signs that pricing pressures may ease soon. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said that Thursday’s jobs report may show “another strong number.” He added that the productivity boom brought by AI has a deflationary effect, so the current reasons for supporting interest rate hikes are not as strong.

The U.S. Dollar Index eased, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.381 basis points/“厘” (as quoted).

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per U.S. dollar, breaking below the low from July 2024 and hitting a new low since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will move to support the yen again.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are constantly being updated. For details, see: Next page

Intraday market snapshot:

【21:30】Dow opens up 164 points to 52,040. Nasdaq up 1.1% to 25,578. S&P opens up 52 points to 7,406.

【19:17】Dow futures up 168 points; Nasdaq futures up 1%; S&P futures up 45 points.

【15:18】Dow futures up 95 points to 52,304; S&P futures up 37 points to 7,439; Nasdaq futures up 219 points, or 0.7%, to 29,587.

【15:18】New York crude oil futures rose 1% to $69.92; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.5% to $72.32. New York gold futures fell 0.5% to $4,074; spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,058.

【15:01】 【AI+ Computing】Computing power can’t keep up with demand. Google reportedly “limits the faucet” for Meta, restricting Gemini usage caps.

【12:44】 【Memory】Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly plan to invest 10 trillion won to expand AI semiconductors. They will partner with the South Korean government on Monday at 2 p.m. to release the “three major projects.” Morningstar breaks down potential concerns about expansion plans.

【11:40】 【Breaking tradition】To mark the U.S. 250th anniversary, the U.S. plans a limited run of “Patriot Passports.” Trump becomes the first sitting president to appear on a passport.

【10:46】 【AI+Anthropic】Austria urges the EU to recruit Anthropic to settle in Austria, hoping to break through U.S. export restrictions.

【10:42】 【AAPL】Apple reportedly seeks approval to buy chips from CXMT via procurement from Changxin Storage to avoid being added to the entity list. Guo Mingchi: The truth is that in 2027 there will be a memory supply-and-demand gap crisis. Citi: Enhances CXMT’s global standing.

【06:46】 【Iran crisis】Oil prices rise. Axios: The U.S. and Iran stop attacking each other; talks on the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.

【06:00】OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, reportedly delays its IPO to next year, putting pressure on AI hardware stocks. U.S. stocks were weak last Friday with fluctuations. The Dow fell as much as 305 points, and the Nasdaq has been down for 5 straight days. The Dow closed at 51,876 points, down 44 points; the S&P fell 0.05%; the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

See the U.S. stock market close here:

For the latest U.S. stock developments last week, see: 【U.S. stock close】OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to next year; Nasdaq down another 0.2%; Kashkari expects one rate hike this year; Dow gives back 44 points