US Stock Market Close | Iran Accuses US of Violating Commitments, Dow Tops Then Slides, Micron Plunges by Over 10%, Nasdaq Down 0.7%

The Iranian negotiation delegation said that the US has breached the commitments in the understanding, and will set up a supervisory team to review the US’s violations. In addition, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said in remarks at the European Central Bank meeting that the Fed will open up a new path, but he refused to provide guidance on interest rates. Market investment sentiment is cautious, with major volatility in US stocks; after the Dow gained 423 points, it turned down, and AI hardware stocks slumped sharply, dragging down the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese concept stocks, jumped 2.9% against the trend.

The Dow closed at 52,305 points, down 13 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.22%; and the Nasdaq dropped 0.66%. Meta (US: META), which has been aggressively snapping up chips in recent years, reportedly sold off its remaining computing capacity, casting a shadow over AI hardware stock orders, but Meta still closed up 8.8%.

With chip stocks under pressure, fears grew that “frenzied buyers” may cut orders. Micron (US: MU) plunged by more than 10%. In an interview, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that the current imbalance between supply and demand for chip products is not caused by storage-chip manufacturers alone. He believes that in recent years some customers have pushed hard to bargain down prices, leading to insufficient industry capacity investment, which means the sector has not been able to plan ahead or keep up with the demand unleashed by the AI industry’s surge.

The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX, the space exploration technology company, has developed a smartphone-like artificial intelligence (AI) prototype. SpaceX’s share price continued to fall with the broader market, dropping 7.8%.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran and head of Iran’s technical negotiation delegation, said that in the trilateral talks between Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan held in Doha on Wednesday, the Iranian delegation raised and reviewed the commitments in the US-Iran memorandum of understanding regarding ending the war in Lebanon that the US has violated.

He also clarified that the Iranian and US delegations did not meet in Doha. Earlier market reports said the US and Iran were conducting indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, with Qatar and Pakistan acting as mediators, and the two sides would not meet face to face.

International oil prices continued to fall. New York crude oil dropped 1.32%, closing at $68.58 per barrel; Brent crude fell 1.89%, closing at $71.57 per barrel. Gold prices repeatedly steadied.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at the European Central Bank forum, where he said the Fed will open a new policy route to determine better policy, but he emphasized that it would not provide any forward-looking guidance. He also expected that there would be intense internal policy disagreements at the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He reiterated the determination to bring inflation back to the 2% target, emphasizing that the central bank’s long-standing independence would not change.

The US June ADP employment report, commonly known as “mini nonfarm,” showed an increase of 98,000 jobs, below expectations of 118,000, while May’s figure was maintained at 122,000.

Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by US companies in June fell 53% month over month to 45,849, and fell 4% year over year.

In-trading trends:

【23:00】Meta surges 10%, moving into the cloud computing market and selling off excess computing power; chip stocks plunge; the Dow rises 85 points

【21:30】Fed Chair Warsh: expects intense internal divisions at the July policy meeting; US dollar and US bond yields rebound; Dow falls 166 points, chip stocks plunge

【18:00】US and Iran are conducting indirect technical talks; oil and gold both drop sharply; Dow futures fall 124 points

【17:00】 【AI+ Anthropic】The US Commerce Department lifts export controls; starting tomorrow, Anthropic will restore access for Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

【16:40】 【AAPL】The US Supreme Court accepts Apple’s appeal; reviews the “contempt of court” ruling in the Epic Games antitrust case

【16:30】 【Trump】Last year he made more than 9.3 billion yuan from crypto; his personal total net worth jumps to 59.2 billion

【16:20】 【TSLA】Tesla tests its first Cybercab; the US suggests exemption from installing brake pedals

【16:00】 【Layoff wave】Microsoft reportedly to kick off another large-scale round of layoffs, involving thousands of positions; the Xbox division becomes the hardest hit area

See US stock close:

AI stocks performed well. SanDisk (US: SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (US: AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (US: MRVL) rose 7.3%, TSMC (US: TSM) rose 4.9%, Nebius (US: NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (US: CRWV) rose 4.2%. However, Micron (US: MU) rose only 0.8%.

Musk’s “twin” companies climbed. Tesla (US: TSLA; Tesla) rose 2.1%, SpaceX (US: SPCX) rose 4.1%, closing at $170.86.

US bond prices fell. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.465%, as US data remained strong, especially with JOLTS job openings at 7.594 million, exceeding the expected 7.296 million. At the same time, with inflation expectations, pressure to raise interest rates increased.

The US and Iran are talking in Doha via intermediaries. The market is watching developments; oil prices were soft. New York crude oil fell 1% to $70.07; Brent crude fell 0.3% to $72.92. Spot gold prices moved little, at $4,008.38.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that US envoy for the Middle East Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss the negotiations, but there are currently no plans to arrange a high-level meeting between the US and Iran.

Overall, for the first half of the year, the Dow rose 8.9%, the S&P 500 rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 12.8%, continuing the previous streak of three consecutive years of gains.

Bitcoin was under pressure, losing the $60,000 level, temporarily trading at $58,482, down 3% on the day. Coinbase (US: COIN) fell 3.6%, Strategy (US: MSTR) fell 6.2%, and Circle fell 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said that artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage to real commercial applications, corporate capital spending continues to receive support. At the same time, the market is also placing greater emphasis on distinguishing companies that genuinely benefit from the long-term AI development trend, from individual stocks that mainly rely on market sentiment to drive performance.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are updated continuously—see: Next page

In-trading trends:

【14:59】Dow futures rose 15 points to 52,587; S&P 500 futures rose 6 points to 7,506; Nasdaq futures rose 71 points or 0.2% to 30,124.

【14:59】Oil fell 1%. New York crude oil fell 1.1% to $70; Brent crude fell 1.4% to $72.14. Gold steadied: New York gold futures rose 0.1% to $4,043, and spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,028.

【14:07】 【Fed personnel】Overturning a 91-year precedent, the US Supreme Court expanded the president’s power to remove senior officials; limited protection for Fed independence; Cook to remain temporarily in office

【12:39】 【US stock analysis】Dow crosses 52,000 points for the first time to close; analysis: not suitable to sell tech stocks at current levels to buy traditional stocks; expects AI-related stocks to remain in demand

【12:33】 【Oil price trends】Morgan Stanley cuts oil price forecast again, the second time in two weeks; sees Brent crude at $80 in Q4

【11:07】 【AAPL】Apple’s India plant Tata hit by a hacker attack; leaked to the dark web, including alleged iPhone 18 live photos, chip, and supplier lists

【09:43】 【Japanese yen trends】The yen breaks below 162; falls below 4.82 against the Hong Kong dollar; hits a new 40-year low. Analysis: even if intervention is carried out, the effect is likely to be temporary

【01:32】 【META】WhatsApp rolls out username feature; 3 billion users can avoid publicly displaying phone numbers

【00:57】 【GOOGL】Google Cloud uploads research AI models, targeting R&D for drugs and chip materials

【00:19】 【AAPL】Apple counterattacks India antitrust investigation, criticizing regulator reports as too sloppy

====Below is the June 29 US stock market situation====

Monday: Nasdaq jumps more than 2%, Dow up 306 points; yen at a 40-year low. Focus: ensuring Fed Governor Cook will not make key decisions

With Middle East tensions easing, investors snapped up US technology stocks, helping US stocks perform well on Monday. The Nasdaq rose more than 2%, the Dow at one point rose 435 points. The market is watching Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the European Central Bank annual meeting this week, looking for clues about the future direction of interest rates. The yen against the dollar hit a 40-year low.

See US stock close:

The Dow closed at 52,182 points, up 306 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.18%; and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The US Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently lacks the power to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, stating that monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. Trump responded on social media, saying he will take corresponding action in the Cook lawsuit to ensure she does not make crucial decisions regarding Fed monetary policy.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s ruling reaffirms a principle that has long supported sound economic management: the Fed must make all policy decisions entirely based on evidence and independent judgment without political interference.

SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index next month, with the stock up 7.1%; AI software stocks performed strongly. Alphabet was officially added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with the stock up 4.8%. Tesla rose 8.5%.

A group of US companies filed a collective antitrust class action lawsuit, accusing Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The alleged details include: price increases of 700% over 4 years, and production cuts to traditional DRAM under the name of HBM. The lawsuit was filed on June 25, last Thursday, which coincided with the sharp selloff in memory stocks. Micron fell another 9.6% again before turning around to close up 1.1%. SanDisk (US: SNDK) had fallen 9.4% and closed with its decline narrowed to 1.9%.

The plaintiffs allege that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron used their absolute dominant position of more than 90% in the global DRAM market. Ostensibly, they claim they are transferring capacity to higher-margin high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to respond to the AI boom, but in reality they are artificially manufacturing shortages. Using HBM as a “smokescreen,” they coordinated to reduce output of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, deliberately creating severe shortages in the retail market, causing ordinary DRAM prices to surge by about 700% over the past four years. The plaintiffs’ economic rationale states that in a healthy competitive market, skyrocketing prices should encourage manufacturers to “increase production” to capture market share, but the three giants instead went the opposite way—“jointly shrinking supply”—which shows clear collusion.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court paved the way for President Trump by enabling him to freely fire officials from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) officials from agencies that have long been independent from politics. For institutions that have long been shielded by politics, this is a historic dismantling. The ruling will greatly expand the president’s power and influence. The ruling overturned “Humphrey’s Executor,” a precedent that has nearly a century of history. Under that precedent, commissioners of independent agencies could not be fired without a specific cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major victory,” confirming his power to remove officials: “As the incumbent president who won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I feel immensely honored. This is one of the most important rulings made regarding presidential power.”

However, the 6-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve (the Fed), consistent with the signals previously released by the Supreme Court that it views the central bank differently. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has a “unique historical tradition.”

Trump agreed to stop attacking Iran and resumed peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. New York crude oil rose 2.2%, closing at $70.75; Brent crude rose 1.61%, closing at $73.15.

Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflation is still too high, but there are signs that price pressures may ease soon. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said that Thursday’s jobs report may show “yet another strong number.” He said the productivity boom brought by AI has a deflationary effect, so the reasons supporting rate hikes are not as strong.

The US dollar index eased, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 4.381%.

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per US dollar, breaking below the July 2024 low and hitting a new low since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will step in again to support the yen.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are updated continuously—see: Next page

In-trading trends:

【21:30】The Dow opened up 164 points at 52,040. The Nasdaq rose 1.1% to 25,578. The S&P 500 opened up 52 points at 7,406.

【19:17】Dow futures rose 168 points, Nasdaq futures rose 1%, and S&P 500 futures rose 45 points.

【15:18】Dow futures rose 95 points to 52,304; S&P 500 futures rose 37 points to 7,439; Nasdaq futures rose 219 points or 0.7% to 29,587.

【15:18】New York crude oil rose 1% to $69.92; Brent crude rose 0.5% to $72.32. New York gold futures fell 0.5% to $4,074; spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,058.

【15:01】 【AI+ computing power】Computing power cannot keep up with demand. Google reportedly “turns off the water valve” on Meta, limiting Gemini usage caps

【12:44】 【Memory】Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly plan to invest 100 trillion won to expand AI semiconductors; to partner with the Korean government, they will announce the “three major projects” at 2 PM Monday; Morningstar breaks down concerns about expansion

【11:40】 【Breaking with tradition】US marks its 250th anniversary by issuing limited “Patriot Passport”; Trump becomes the first sitting president to appear on a passport

【10:46】 【AI+Anthropic】Austria urges the EU to attract Anthropic to settle there, hoping to break through US export restrictions

【10:42】 【AAPL】Apple reportedly seeks approval to purchase chips from ChangXin Memory to avoid being listed on an entity list; Kuo: the truth is the 2027 memory supply-and-demand gap crisis; Citi: boosts ChangXin Memory’s global standing

【06:46】 【Iran crisis】Oil prices rise. Axios: US and Iran stop attacking each other; negotiations for the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday

【06:00】ChatGPT developer OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to next year, pressuring AI hardware stocks. US stocks were mixed and weak last Friday. The Dow fell as much as 305 points; the Nasdaq fell for 5 straight days. The Dow closed at 51,876 points, down 44 points; the S&P 500 was barely down 0.05%; the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

See US stock close:

For US stock market developments last week, see: 【US stock close】 OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to next year; Nasdaq falls another 0.2%; Kashkari expects one rate hike this year; Dow falls 44 points.