【Pre-market U.S. Stocks】U.S. and Iran are holding indirect technical talks, oil and gold prices fall together, Dow drops 124 points (ongoing updates)

Market sources indicate that the U.S. and Iran are holding indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, with Qatar and Pakistan acting as mediators; neither side will meet directly. International oil prices continue to fall. NYMEX crude is down 0.9% to $68.88 per barrel, while Brent crude is at $72.28 per barrel, down 0.9%. Gold prices remain weak: NYMEX gold is down 0.9% to $4,002 per ounce, and spot gold is down 0.5% to $3,989 per ounce, falling below $4,000.

The three major U.S. stock indexes are slightly soft in pre-market trading. Dow Jones futures are down 124 points, to 52,546; S&P 500 futures are down 16 points, to 7,532; Nasdaq futures are down 145 points, or 0.5%, to 30,378.

On Wednesday, the U.S. will release June ADP employment changes, the final June S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, and the June ISM Manufacturing Index.

In terms of focus stocks, chip stocks are weaker in pre-market trading. Micron (MU) is down more than 3% before the open. In an interview, the company’s CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that the current supply-demand imbalance in chip products is not caused by only memory-chip manufacturers. He believes that in recent years, some customers, when negotiating, have aggressively pushed for lower prices, resulting in insufficient industry capacity investment—so the entire industry has failed to position itself in advance and keep up with the demand unleashed by the AI industry boom.

He admitted that in 2023, some customers drastically cut industry prices to one-third of the previous level. The collapse in prices pushed memory suppliers into negative gross margins, leaving the whole industry lacking sufficient financial flexibility to invest in new capacity.

Intraday market snapshots:

【18:00】U.S.-Iran conduct indirect technical talks; oil and gold prices drop together; Dow down 124 points

【17:00】 【AI+ Anthropic】U.S. Commerce Department removes export controls; Anthropic to restore access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models starting tomorrow

【16:40】 【AAPL】U.S. Supreme Court accepts Apple’s appeal; reviews the “contempt of court” ruling in Epic Games’ antitrust case

【16:30】 【Trump】Trump made over 93 billion in crypto last year; personal net worth surges to 59.2 billion

【16:20】 【TSLA】Tesla tests its first Cybercab; U.S. recommends exempting the requirement to install brake pedal

【16:00】 【Layoff wave】Microsoft reportedly to resume large-scale layoffs again, involving thousands of positions; Xbox division hardest hit

See the latest on U.S. stock market close:

AI stocks performed strongly. SanDisk (SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose 7.3%, TSMC (TSM) rose 4.9%, Nebius (NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (CRWV) rose 4.2%. However, Micron (MU) rose only 0.8%.

Musk’s “twin” companies rose. Tesla (TSLA; Tesla) rose 2.1%, while SpaceX (SPCX) rose 4.1%, closing at $170.86.

U.S. Treasury prices fell. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.465% as U.S. data remained strong—especially JOLTS job openings of 7.594 million, exceeding the expected 7.296 million. At the same time, with inflation expectations, pressure for rate hikes increased.

The U.S. and Iran are talking in Doha through intermediaries. The market is watching for progress; oil prices are soft. NYMEX crude is down 1% to $70.07, and Brent crude is down 0.3% to $72.92. Spot gold prices changed little, at $4,008.38.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that U.S. Middle East envoy Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with the mediators to discuss negotiation matters, but there are currently no plans to arrange a high-level meeting between the U.S. and Iran.

On a cumulative basis for the first half of the year, the Dow is up 8.9%, the S&P up 9.6%, and the Nasdaq up 12.8%, continuing the upward trend of the past three consecutive years.

Bitcoin is under pressure, losing the $60,000 level and temporarily trading at $58,482, down 3% on the day. Coinbase (COIN) is down 3.6%, Strategy (MSTR) is down 6.2%, and Circle is down 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said that artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage to real commercial applications, support for corporate capital expenditure continues. At the same time, the market is paying more attention to distinguishing companies that truly benefit from the long-term AI development trend from individual stocks mainly driven by market sentiment.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continuously being updated; see the next page for details.

Intraday market snapshots:

【14:59】Dow futures up 15 points to 52,587; S&P futures up 6 points to 7,506; Nasdaq futures up 71 points, or 0.2%, to 30,124.

【14:59】Oil down 1%. NYMEX crude down 1.1% to $70; Brent crude down 1.4% to $72.14. Gold steadies: NYMEX gold up 0.1% to $4,043; spot gold up 0.3% to $4,028.

【14:07】 【Fed personnel】Overturning a 91-year precedent, the U.S. Supreme Court expands presidential power to remove senior officials; the Fed’s independence receives limited protection; Cook to remain for now

【12:39】 【U.S. stock analysis】Dow closes above 52,000 points for the first time. Analysis: Not advisable to sell tech stocks at current levels to buy traditional stocks; AI-related shares still expected to be in demand

【12:33】 【Oil price trend】Morgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecast again—the second time in two weeks—seeing Brent at $80 in Q4

【11:07】 【AAPL】Apple’s India plant Tata hit by hackers; iPhone 18 real-machine photos, chip, and supplier list data leaked to the dark web

【09:43】 【Japanese yen trend】Yen breaks below 162; falls below 4.82 per Hong Kong dollar; hits a new 40-year low. Analysis: Even if intervention occurs, the effect would be short-lived

【01:32】 【META】WhatsApp launches username feature; 3 billion users can avoid publicly disclosing phone numbers

【00:57】 【GOOGL】Google Cloud launches research AI models, targeting R&D in drugs and chip materials

【00:19】 【AAPL】Apple pushes back against India’s antitrust investigation, criticizing the regulator’s report as overly sloppy

====Below is the U.S. stock market situation on June 29====

Monday: Nasdaq jumps more than 2%; Dow up 306 points; yen at a 40-year low. Focus: Will ensure Fed Governor Cook does not make key decisions

With tensions in the Middle East easing, investors bought U.S. technology stocks, lifting U.S. stocks on Monday. The Nasdaq jumped more than 2%, and the Dow was up by as much as 435 points. The market focused on Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the European Central Bank annual conference this week, looking for clues on the direction of future interest rates. The yen traded at a 40-year low against the dollar.

See the latest on U.S. stock market close:

The Dow closed at 52,182, up 306 points; the S&P rose 1.18%; and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently has no power to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, stating that monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. In a response on social media, Trump said he would take appropriate action in the Cook lawsuit to ensure she does not make crucial decisions on Fed monetary policy.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s ruling reaffirms a principle that has long supported sound economic management: the Fed must make all policy decisions solely based on evidence and independent judgment, free from political interference.

SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index next month, with shares up 7.1%. AI software stocks were eye-catching. Alphabet was officially added to the Dow component stocks, with shares up 4.8%. Tesla rose 8.5%.

A group of U.S. companies filed a collective antitrust class-action lawsuit, accusing Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The allegations include details such as a 700% increase in prices over 4 years and reducing production of traditional DRAM under the name of HBM. The lawsuit was filed on June 25, last Thursday, which coincided exactly with the period when memory stocks plunged sharply. Micron fell another 9.6% at one point, then turned and closed up 1.1%. SanDisk (SNDK) had previously fallen 9.4%, with its loss narrowing to 1.9% at close.

The plaintiffs allege that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron used their absolute dominant position of more than 90% in the global DRAM market. Ostensibly claiming they shifted capacity to higher-margin high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to ride the AI boom, they instead artificially created a shortage—using HBM as a “smokescreen”—and worked together to cut production of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, deliberately creating a severe shortage in the retail market. This caused ordinary DRAM prices to surge by about 700% over the past four years. The plaintiffs’ economic rationale argues that in a healthy competitive market, a price surge should attract manufacturers to “expand production” to gain market share. But the three giants did the opposite—“jointly contracting supply”—showing an obvious collusive monopoly.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court cleared the way for President Trump to freely fire officials at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) long-term independent-of-politics agencies. For institutions long protected by politics, this is a historic dismantling. The ruling will greatly expand the president’s power and influence. The ruling overturned the nearly century-old precedent of “Humphrey’s Executor,” which stated that commissioners of independent agencies could not be removed without a specific cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major victory,” confirming that he has the power to replace officials: “As the incumbent president who won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I feel extremely honored. This is one of the most important rulings ever regarding presidential power.”

However, this 6-to-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve, consistent with signals previously released by the Supreme Court that it has a different view of the central bank. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has “a unique historical tradition.”

Trump stopped attacking Iran and resumed peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. NYMEX crude rose 2.2% to close at $70.75, and Brent crude rose 1.61% to close at $73.15.

Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflation is still too high, but there are signs that price pressures may ease soon. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said Thursday’s jobs report may show “another strong number.” He said the productivity boom brought by AI has a deflationary effect, so the case for supporting rate hikes is not as strong as before.

The U.S. dollar index softened, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.381%.

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per dollar, breaking below the July 2024 low and hitting the lowest level since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will step in again to support the yen.

Hong Kong stock and ADR market updates are continuously being updated; see the next page for details.

Intraday market snapshots:

【21:30】Dow opened up 164 points at 52,040. Nasdaq up 1.1% at 25,578. S&P opened up 52 points at 7,406.

【19:17】Dow futures up 168 points, Nasdaq futures up 1%, S&P futures up 45 points.

【15:18】Dow futures up 95 points to 52,304; S&P futures up 37 points to 7,439; Nasdaq futures up 219 points, or 0.7%, to 29,587.

【15:18】NYMEX crude up 1% to $69.92; Brent crude up 0.5% to $72.32. NYMEX gold down 0.5% to $4,074; spot gold down 0.7% to $4,058.

【15:01】 【AI+Computing Power】Computing power can’t keep up with demand. Google reportedly “cuts water” to Meta, restricting Gemini usage limits.

【12:44】 【Memory】Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly plan to invest 10 trillion won to expand AI semiconductors. With the Korean government, they will release “three major projects” at 2 PM Monday afternoon. Morningstar breaks down hidden risks of capacity expansion.

【11:40】 【Breaking tradition】U.S. marks the 250th anniversary by launching limited “Patriot Passport” ; Trump becomes the first sitting president to appear on a passport.

【10:46】 【AI+Anthropic】Austria urges the EU to recruit Anthropic to relocate there, aiming to break through U.S. export restrictions

【10:42】 【AAPL】Apple reportedly seeks approval to buy chips from ChangXin Memory to avoid being added to the Entity List. Guo Mingchi: the real issue is the 2027 memory supply-demand gap crisis. Citi: boosts ChangXin Memory’s global status

【06:46】 【Iran crisis】Oil prices rise. Axios: U.S. and Iran stop attacking each other; negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz to be held on Tuesday

【06:00】ChatGPT developer OpenAI reportedly delays its IPO to next year, pressuring AI hardware stocks. U.S. stocks were mixed and generally weak last Friday. The Dow fell by up to 305 points, and the Nasdaq suffered a 5-day decline. The Dow closed at 51,876, down 44 points; the S&P slipped 0.05%: the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

See the latest on U.S. stock market close:

For last week’s developments in U.S. stocks, see: [U.S. Stock Close] OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to next year; Nasdaq falls another 0.2%; Kashkari expects one rate hike this year; Dow gives back 44 points