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Bernstein is bullish on six leading semiconductor equipment companies in China and the US, all of which received outperform ratings.
In terms of coverage ratings, U.S. stocks Applied Materials ($525), Lam Research ($340), KLA ($197.5), and Chinese stocks NAURA (¥680), AMEC (¥500), Piotech (¥580), all six leading companies received an outperform rating.
Japan's SEAJ equipment shipments in May were 420 billion yen, up 11% year-on-year, with a three-month moving average up 18%, showing a clear trend.
Among them, test equipment surged 41%, driven by HBM and AI chip testing intensity; front-end equipment increased 5%, and packaging equipment increased 12%.
At the individual stock level, Advantest, leveraging its exclusive supplier position for HBM testing, has a June quarter revenue forecast of +10%, higher than the market expectation of +3%; Tokyo Electron has a forecast of -15%, lower than the market expectation of +7%, mainly due to shipment timing rather than demand issues.
Japanese companies Disco, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Kokusai, and Lasertec all received outperform ratings simultaneously.
Bernstein has rarely given a unanimous bullish judgment on the China-U.S. WFE track, with U.S. stocks winning on technology barriers and benefiting from storage capex, and Chinese stocks winning on the certainty of domestic substitution.