【U.S. Stock Market Pre-market】The U.S. and Iran are conducting indirect technical talks, and both oil and gold prices slump as the Dow falls 124 points (updates ongoing)

Market sources say that the United States and Iran are holding indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar. Qatar and Pakistan are acting as mediators, and the two sides will not meet directly. International oil prices continue to fall: NYMEX crude is down 0.9% to $68.88 per barrel, and Brent crude is down 0.9% to $72.28 per barrel. Gold prices remain weak: COMEX gold is down 0.9% to $4,002 per ounce, and spot gold is down 0.5% to $3,989 per ounce, falling below $4,000.

Before the market open, the three major U.S. stock indexes are slightly weaker. Dow futures are down 124 points to 52,546; S&P futures are down 16 points to 7,532; Nasdaq futures are down 145 points, or 0.5%, to 30,378.

The United States will release on Wednesday the June ADP Employment Change, the June S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI final, and the June ISM Manufacturing Index.

In focus stocks, chip stocks are weaker ahead of the open. Micron (MU) is down more than 3% before the market open. When asked in an interview, the company’s CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that the current imbalance in supply and demand for chip products is not caused solely by memory chip manufacturers. He believes that in recent years, some customers have pushed down prices aggressively in bargaining, resulting in insufficient industry capacity investment, meaning the entire industry has not been able to plan ahead or keep up with the demand unleashed by the AI industry boom.

He also admitted that in 2023, some customers drastically lowered industry prices to as low as one-third of the previous level. The price plunge pushed memory suppliers into negative gross margin conditions, leaving the entire industry lacking sufficient financial flexibility to invest in new capacity.

On-site market move:

【18：00】The U.S. and Iran are conducting indirect technical talks; oil and gold prices slide together; Dow down 124 points

【17：00】 【AI+ Anthropic】The U.S. Commerce Department removes export controls; Anthropic will restore access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models from tomorrow

【16：40】 【AAPL】U.S. Supreme Court accepts Apple’s appeal; to review the “contempt of court” ruling in Epic Games’ antitrust case

【16：30】 【Trump】Made over 9.3 billion yuan in cryptocurrency last year; personal net worth surges to 59.2 billion yuan

【16：20】 【TSLA】Tesla tests its first Cybercab; U.S. proposes exempting the installation of brake pedal

【16：00】 【Layoff wave】Microsoft reportedly to kick off another large-scale round of layoffs, involving thousands of positions; Xbox department a hardest-hit area

See U.S. stock market close:

AI stocks performed well. SanDisk (SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose 7.3%, TSMC (TSM) rose 4.9%, Nebius (NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (CRWV) rose 4.2%. However, Micron (MU) rose only 0.8%.

Musk’s twin stocks rose: Tesla (TSLA; Tesla) up 2.1%, SpaceX (SPCX) up 4.1%, closing at $170.86.

U.S. bond prices fell. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to 4.465% as U.S. data remained strong, especially JOLTS job openings of 7.594 million, exceeding the expected 7.296 million. At the same time, with inflation expectations, pressure for rate hikes increased.

The U.S. and Iran are talking in Doha through intermediaries. The market is watching developments. Oil prices are soft: NYMEX crude is down 1% to $70.07, and Brent crude is down 0.3% to $72.92. Spot gold is little changed at $4,008.38.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the U.S. Middle East envoy Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with the mediators to discuss negotiation matters, but there are currently no plans to arrange high-level talks between the U.S. and Iran.

For the first half of the year, the Dow is up 8.9%, the S&P is up 9.6%, and the Nasdaq is up 12.8%, continuing the upward trend from the past three consecutive years.

Bitcoin is under pressure, falling below $60,000. It is temporarily at $58,482, down 3% on the day. Coinbase (COIN) is down 3.6%, Strategy (MSTR) is down 6.2%, and Circle is down 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said that artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage to practical commercial applications, corporate capital expenditure continues to receive support. At the same time, the market is placing more emphasis on distinguishing between companies that truly benefit from the long-term AI development trend and those whose stocks are mainly driven by market sentiment.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are constantly updated. For details, please see: Next page

On-site market move:

【14：59】Dow futures up 15 points to 52,587; S&P futures up 6 points to 7,506; Nasdaq futures up 71 points, or 0.2%, to 30,124.

【14：59】Oil down 1%: NYMEX crude down 1.1% to $70; Brent crude down 1.4% to $72.14. Gold steady: COMEX gold up 0.1% to $4,043; spot gold up 0.3% to $4,028.

【14：07】 【Fed personnel】Overturning the 91-year precedent, U.S. Supreme Court expands the president’s power to remove senior officials; Fed independence receives limited protection; Cook to remain temporarily

【12：39】 【U.S. stocks analysis】Dow closes above 52,000 points for the first time; analysis: do not sell tech stocks to buy traditional stocks at current levels; expects AI-related shares to remain in demand

【12：33】 【Oil price trend】Morgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecast again, second time in two weeks; sees Q4 Brent at $80

【11：07】 【AAPL】Apple’s India plant hit by hackers; iPhone 18 real-unit photos, chips, and supplier lists leaked to the dark web

【09：43】 【Japanese yen trend】Yen falls below 162, slipping past 4.82 against the Hong Kong dollar; sets a new 40-year low; analysis: even if intervention is carried out, the effect will be temporary

【01：32】 【META】WhatsApp launches username feature; 3 billion users can avoid making their phone numbers public

【00：57】 【GOOGL】Google Cloud uploads research AI models, targeting R&D for drugs and chip materials

【00：19】 【AAPL】Apple pushes back against India’s antitrust investigation, criticizing that regulatory reports are too slipshod

====The following is the June 29 U.S. stock market situation====

Monday: Nasdaq surges over 2%, Dow up 306 points, Yen at a 40-year low. Key point: will ensure Fed Governor Cook does not make critical decisions

With the Middle East situation easing, investors bought U.S. tech stocks, lifting U.S. stocks higher on Monday. The Nasdaq rebounded more than 2%, while the Dow was up as much as 435 points. The market focused on Fed Chair Warsh’s speech this week at the European Central Bank annual meeting, looking for clues on the direction of future interest rates. The yen versus the U.S. dollar hit a 40-year low.

See U.S. stock market close:

The Dow closed at 52,182 points, up 306 points; the S&P rose 1.18%; and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently lacks the power to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook (Cook), saying that monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. Trump responded on social media, saying he would take appropriate action in the Cook lawsuit to ensure she does not make crucial decisions on matters related to Fed monetary policy.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s ruling reaffirmed a long-standing principle supporting sound economic management: the Fed must make all policy decisions entirely based on evidence and independent judgment, free from political interference.

SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index next month, with the stock up 7.1%. AI software stocks showed standout performance. Alphabet was officially added to the Dow, with the stock up 4.8%. Tesla rose 8.5%.

A group of U.S. companies filed a collective antitrust class action lawsuit, accusing Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, alleging details including that over 4 years, price increases reached 700%, and that output was reduced for traditional DRAM under the name of HBM. The lawsuit was filed on June 25, last Thursday—coinciding exactly with the period when memory stocks sharply fell. Micron fell another 9.6% and then reversed to gain 1.1% at the close. SanDisk (SNDK) fell 9.4% earlier and narrowed its loss to 1.9% at the close.

The plaintiffs allege that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron used their absolute dominant position of more than 90% in the global DRAM market. They claim, ostensibly, that production capacity was shifted to higher-margin High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) in response to the AI boom, but in reality they artificially created a shortage. Using HBM as a “smokescreen,” they coordinated reductions in output of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, deliberately creating severe shortages in the retail market and driving the price of ordinary DRAM up by about 700% over the past four years. The plaintiffs’ economic argument is that in a healthy competitive market, a price surge should attract manufacturers to “expand production” to capture market share, but the three giants instead went the opposite way—“jointly contracting supply”—showing clear collusion.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court paved the way for President Trump to freely fire officials at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) of the officials at agencies that have long been independent of politics. For institutions that have been protected by politics for a long time, this is a historic dismantling. The ruling greatly expands the president’s power and influence. It overturned nearly century-old precedent set by “Humphrey’s Executor.” That precedent held that commissioners of independent agencies could not be removed without a specific cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major victory,” confirming that he has the power to replace officials: “As the sitting president who won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I feel extremely honored. It is one of the most important rulings ever made regarding presidential power.”

However, the 6-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve (the Fed), consistent with signals the Supreme Court had previously released indicating that the Supreme Court has a different view of this central bank. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has a “unique historical tradition.”

Trump stopped attacking Iran and resumed peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. NYMEX crude rose 2.2% to close at $70.75, and Brent crude rose 1.61% to close at $73.15.

Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflation is still too high, but there are signs that price pressures may ease soon. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett (Kevin Hassett) said Thursday’s employment report may show “another strong number.” He said the productivity boom brought by AI has a deflationary effect, so the rationale for supporting rate hikes is not as strong as before.

The U.S. Dollar Index eased, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.381%.

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per U.S. dollar, breaking below the low from July 2024 and hitting a new low since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will step in again to support the yen.

Hong Kong stock and ADR market conditions are constantly updated. For details, please see the next page.

On-site market move:

【21：30】Dow opens up 164 points to 52,040. Nasdaq up 1.1% to 25,578. S&P opens up 52 points to 7,406.

【19：17】Dow futures up 168 points, Nasdaq futures up 1%, S&P futures up 45 points.

【15：18】Dow futures up 95 points to 52,304; S&P futures up 37 points to 7,439; Nasdaq futures up 219 points, or 0.7%, to 29,587.

【15：18】NYMEX crude up 1% to $69.92, Brent crude up 0.5% to $72.32. NYMEX gold down 0.5% to $4,074; spot gold down 0.7% to $4,058.

【15：01】 【AI+ Computing power】Computing power can’t keep up with demand; Google reportedly “shuts off” Meta and restricts Gemini usage caps

【12：44】 【Memory】Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly plan to invest 10 trillion won to expand AI semiconductors; partner with the Korean government to release “three major projects” at 2 p.m. Monday; Morningstar breaks down hidden risks in the expansion plan

【11：40】 【Breaking with tradition】U.S. marks 250th anniversary by issuing a limited-edition “Patriot Passport”; Trump becomes the first sitting president to appear on the passport

【10：46】 【AI+Anthropic】Austria calls on the EU to recruit Anthropic to set up in Austria; hopes to break through U.S. export restrictions

【10：42】 【AAPL】Apple reportedly seeks approval to buy chips for storage from ChangXin Memory, to avoid being listed on the entity list. Ming-Chi Kuo: the truth is that a memory supply-demand gap crisis will hit in 2027. Citi: improves ChangXin Memory’s global position

【06：46】 【Iran crisis】Oil prices rise. Axios: U.S. and Iran stop attacking each other; talks on the Hormuz Strait on Tuesday

【06：00】OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, reportedly postpones its IPO to next year, putting pressure on AI hardware stocks. U.S. stocks were mixed and slightly weak last Friday. The Dow fell as much as 305 points, and the Nasdaq fell for 5 straight days. The Dow closed at 51,876, down 44 points, giving back; the S&P was down 0.05%; and the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

See U.S. stock market close:

U.S. stock market last week— for details, please see: 【U.S. stock market close】OpenAI reportedly postpones IPO to next year; Nasdaq falls another 0.2% . Kashkari expected one rate hike this year; Dow gives back 44 points