Three Lions vs African Dark Horse, a Reunion After 52 Years

Tomorrow at midnight (local time), Atlanta, England vs DR Congo. This is not just a Round of 16 match, but a reunion spanning 52 years.

DR Congo last appeared in the World Cup in 1974—then known as Zaire, they lost all three matches, scoring 0 goals and conceding 14, including a 0-9 thrashing by Yugoslavia. Fifty-two years later, they have changed their name from Zaire to DR Congo and advanced to the knockout stage for the first time in their history as the third-placed team in their group. Their first-ever World Cup knockout match is against title contenders England.

England finished top of their group with 7 points from two wins and one draw. Harry Kane scored 3 goals in the group stage, becoming England's all-time top scorer in World Cup history. But there are concerns for the team: their attack was repeatedly thwarted against Ghana, resulting in a 0-0 draw. Facing another African team in DR Congo, England must avoid repeating that mistake.

According to Polymarket data, England has about a 78% win probability, DR Congo's upset chance is about 10%, and a draw is around 12%. The market overwhelmingly favors England. However, DR Congo held Portugal to a 1-1 draw in the group stage, proving they can compete with strong teams. Tomorrow at midnight, Atlanta, see you there.

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