【US Stock Market Pre-Market】US and Iran are conducting indirect technical talks, oil and gold prices both fall, Dow drops 124 points (continuously updated)

Market sources indicate that the US and Iran are holding indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, with Qatar and Pakistan serving as mediators; the two sides will not meet directly. International oil prices continue to fall. New York crude oil is down 0.9%, trading at $68.88 per barrel. Brent crude oil is at $72.28 per barrel, down 0.9%. Gold prices remain weak: New York gold futures are down 0.9% to $4,002 per ounce, and spot gold is down 0.5% to $3,989 per ounce, falling below the $4,000 level.

Ahead of the market open, the three major US stock indices are slightly soft. Dow futures are down 124 points to 52,546; S&P futures are down 16 points to 7,532; Nasdaq futures are down 145 points, or 0.5%, to 30,378.

On Wednesday, the US will release June ADP employment change, June S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI final, and the June ISM Manufacturing Index.

On the focus stocks, chip stocks are weak ahead of the market open. Micron (MU: MU) is down more than 3% pre-market. In an interview, the company CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that it is not only storage-chip manufacturers that are causing the current imbalance between chip product supply and demand. He believes that in recent years, some customers have pushed hard to drive down prices during negotiations, resulting in insufficient industry capacity investment, meaning the whole industry has not set up in advance to keep up with the demand unleashed by the AI industry boom.

He also acknowledged that in 2023, some customers slashed industry prices to one-third of the previous level. The price crash pushed storage suppliers into a negative gross margin situation, leaving the entire industry with insufficient financial flexibility to invest in new capacity.

Intraday market update:

【18:00】 US and Iran are holding indirect technical talks; oil and gold prices plunge together; Dow falls 124 points

【17:00】 【AI+ Anthropic】 US Department of Commerce lifts export controls; Anthropic to resume access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models starting tomorrow

【16:40】 【AAPL】 US Supreme Court accepts Apple’s appeal; hears Epic Games antitrust case “contempt of court” ruling

【16:30】 【Trump】 Earned over 9.3 billion yuan from crypto last year; personal net worth surges to 59.2 billion yuan

【16:20】 【TSLA】 Tesla tests first Cybercab; US recommends exempting installation of brake pedals

【16:00】 【Layoff wave】 Microsoft reportedly to initiate another large-scale layoff involving thousands of positions; Xbox division becomes hardest hit

See also: US stock market close in real time:

AI stocks performed well. SanDisk (SNDK: SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (AMD: AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (MRVL: MRVL) rose 7.3%, TSMC (TSM: TSMC) rose 4.9%, Nebius (NBIS: NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (CRWV: CRWV) rose 4.2%; however, Micron (MU: MU) was only up 0.8%.

Musk’s twins climbed: Tesla (TSLA: Tesla) rose 2.1% and SpaceX (SPCX: SPCX) rose 4.1%, closing at $170.86.

US Treasury prices fell. The yield on US 10-year notes rose to 4.465% as US data remained strong, especially JOLTS job openings at 7.594 million, exceeding the expected 7.296 million. At the same time, with inflation expectations rising, pressure for further rate hikes increased.

The US and Iran are conversing in Doha through intermediaries. The market is watching developments. Oil prices are soft: New York crude oil is down 1% to $70.07, and Brent crude oil is down 0.3% to $72.92. Spot gold is little changed at $4,008.38.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that US Middle East envoy Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss negotiation matters, but there are currently no plans to arrange high-level talks between the US and Iran.

For the first half of the year overall, the Dow is up 8.9%, the S&P is up 9.6%, and the Nasdaq is up 12.8%, continuing the upward trend from the past three consecutive years.

Bitcoin is under pressure, losing the $60,000 level and temporarily trading at $58,482, down 3% on the day. Coinbase (COIN: COIN) is down 3.6%, Strategy (MSTR: MSTR) is down 6.2%, and Circle is down 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said that artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage to real commercial applications, corporate capital expenditure continues to receive support. At the same time, the market is placing more focus on distinguishing companies that truly benefit from the long-term AI development trend from individual stocks that are mainly driven by market sentiment.

Hong Kong stock and ADR market conditions are being updated continuously. For details, please see: Next page

Intraday market update:

【14:59】 Dow futures rise 15 points to 52,587; S&P futures rise 6 points to 7,506; Nasdaq futures rise 71 points, or 0.2%, to 30,124.

【14:59】 Oil prices fall 1%. New York crude oil falls 1.1% to $70; Brent crude oil falls 1.4% to $72.14. Gold prices are steady. New York gold futures rise 0.1% to $4,043; spot gold rises 0.3% to $4,028.

【14:07】 【Fed personnel】 Overturning a 91-year precedent, the US Supreme Court expands the president’s power to remove senior officials; the Fed’s independence receives limited protection; Cook to remain temporarily

【12:39】 【US stock analysis】 Dow rises above 52,000 points for the first time at close. Analysis: it is not advisable to sell technology stocks for traditional stocks at current levels; AI-related shares are expected to remain in demand

【12:33】 【Oil price trend】 Morgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecast again, the second time in two weeks; fourth-quarter Brent crude oil seen at $80

【11:07】 【AAPL】 Apple’s India plant Tata is hit by a cyberattack; leaked data including iPhone 18 real photos, chips, and supplier lists to the dark web

【09:43】 【Japanese yen trend】 The yen breaks through the 162 level, falls below 4.82 against the Hong Kong dollar, sets a new 40-year low; analysis: even if intervention occurs, the effect would be short-lived

【01:32】 【META】 WhatsApp launches username feature; 3 billion users can avoid making phone numbers public

【00:57】 【GOOGL】 Google Cloud uploads research and development AI models, targeting drug and chip materials R&D

【00:19】 【AAPL】 Apple counters India antitrust investigation, criticizing regulatory reports as too sloppy

==== Below are the US stock market conditions for June 29 ====

Monday: Nasdaq rebounds more than 2%, Dow up 306 points, yen at a 40-year low. Key point: will ensure Fed Governor Cook does not make key decisions

With tensions in the Middle East easing, investors snapped up US tech stocks, lifting US stocks on Monday. The Nasdaq rebounded more than 2%, and the Dow rose as much as 435 points. The market focused on a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh at the European Central Bank annual meeting this week, looking for clues about the future direction of interest rates. The yen against the dollar reached a 40-year low.

See also: US stock market close in real time:

The Dow closed at 52,182, up 306 points; the S&P rose 1.18%; and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The US Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently has no authority to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, saying monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. Trump responded on social media that he would take corresponding actions in relation to the Cook lawsuit to ensure she will not make crucial decisions on matters of Fed monetary policy.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s ruling reaffirmed a long-standing principle supporting sound economic management—namely that the Fed must make all policy decisions solely based on evidence and independent judgment, without political interference.

SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index next month. Its share price rose 7.1%. AI software stocks performed strongly: Alphabet was officially added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with its share price up 4.8%. Tesla rose 8.5%.

A group of US companies filed a collective antitrust class action lawsuit, accusing Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The allegations include that over 4 years, prices increased by 700%, and that production cuts to traditional DRAM were carried out “under the banner of HBM.” The filing date was June 25, last Thursday, which coincided exactly with the period when memory stocks plunged sharply. Micron fell another 9.6%, then turned to end up 1.1% at the close. SanDisk (SNDK: SNDK) was down 9.4% earlier, with its losses narrowing to 1.9% at the close.

The plaintiffs allege that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron used their absolute dominant position of more than 90% in the global DRAM market. While they claim, on the surface, that this is to shift capacity to higher-profit high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in response to the AI boom, in reality they are artificially creating a shortage. Using HBM as a “smokescreen,” they coordinated to cut production of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, deliberately causing a severe shortage in the retail market. This led to an approximately 700% surge in the price of ordinary DRAM over the past four years. The plaintiffs’ economic arguments state that in a healthy competitive market, a sharp increase in prices should attract manufacturers to “expand production” to gain market share, but the three giants did the opposite by “jointly shrinking supply,” demonstrating a clear tacit agreement on monopolization.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court paved the way for President Trump to freely fire officials at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) other agencies that have long remained independent from politics. For institutions that have long enjoyed political protection, this is a historic dismantling. The ruling will greatly expand presidential power and influence. The ruling overturned the nearly 100-year-old precedent of “Humphrey’s Executor,” which held that commissioners of independent agencies may not be dismissed without a specific cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major victory,” confirming his power to remove officials: “As the sitting president who won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I feel extremely honored. This is one of the most important rulings regarding presidential power.”

However, the 6-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve, consistent with signals previously released by the Supreme Court indicating that the Supreme Court views the central bank differently. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has “unique historical traditions.”

Trump agreed to stop attacks on Iran and resumed peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. New York crude oil rose 2.2% to close at $70.75, and Brent crude oil rose 1.61% to close at $73.15.

Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflation is still too high, but there are signs that price pressure may ease soon. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett (Kevin Hassett) said that Thursday’s employment report may show “another strong number.” He added that the productivity boom brought by AI has a disinflationary effect, so the case for supporting rate hikes is not as strong at present.

The US dollar index weakened, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to 4.381%.

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per US dollar, breaking below the July 2024 low and hitting a new low since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will step in again to support the yen.

Hong Kong stock and ADR market conditions are being updated continuously. For details, please see: Next page

Intraday market update:

【21:30】 Dow opens up 164 points at 52,040. Nasdaq up 1.1% at 25,578. S&P opens up 52 points at 7,406.

【19:17】 Dow futures up 168 points; Nasdaq futures up 1%; S&P futures up 45 points.

【15:18】 Dow futures up 95 points to 52,304; S&P futures up 37 points to 7,439; Nasdaq futures up 219 points, or 0.7%, to 29,587.

【15:18】 New York crude oil rises 1% to $69.92; Brent crude oil rises 0.5% to $72.32. New York gold falls 0.5% to $4,074; spot gold falls 0.7% to $4,058.

【15:01】 【AI+ computing power】 Computing power can’t keep up with demand. Google reportedly “turns off the tap” for Meta, limiting Gemini usage caps

【12:44】 【Memory】 Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly plan to invest 10 trillion won to expand AI semiconductors. With the Korean government partnering, they will release the “three major projects” at 2 PM Monday; Morningstar breaks down the hidden risks of scaling up

【11:40】 【Breaking tradition】 The US issues limited-edition “Patriot Passport” for the 250th anniversary of the nation’s founding; Trump becomes the first sitting president to appear on the passport

【10:46】 【AI+Anthropic】 Austria urges the EU to recruit Anthropic; hopes to break through US export restrictions

【10:42】 【AAPL】 Apple reportedly seeks approval to buy chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies to avoid being placed on an entity list. Kuo: the truth is the 2027 memory supply-and-demand gap crisis. Citi: boosts ChangXin’s global position

【06:46】 【Iran crisis】 Oil rises. Axios: the US and Iran stop attacking each other; negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday

【06:00】 OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, is reportedly delaying its IPO until next year. This weighs on AI hardware stocks. US stocks were choppy and generally weaker last Friday: the Dow fell as much as 305 points and the Nasdaq slid for 5 straight days. The Dow closed at 51,876, down 44 points; the S&P was barely down 0.05%; and the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

See also: US stock market close in real time:

For US stock market dynamics last week, please see: 【US stock market close】 OpenAI reportedly delays IPO until next year; Nasdaq falls another 0.2%; Kashkari expects one rate hike this year; Dow gives back 44 points