【US Stock Market Opens】Fed Chair Walsh: Expects Fierce Internal Divisions at the July FOMC Meeting; US dollar and US bond yields rebound; Dow falls 166 points, chip stocks plunge (Continuously Updated)

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh delivered a speech at the European Central Bank forum, during which he said the Fed will open a new policy pathway to determine better policies, but emphasized that no forward guidance will be provided and expects fierce internal policy disagreements at the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The US June ADP employment report—colloquially known as the “small non-farm”—showed an increase of 98,000 jobs, below the expected 118,000, while the May figure was kept at 122,000.

Data from the human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by US companies in June fell 53% month over month to 45,849, and on a year-over-year basis

Market news indicated that the US and Iran are conducting indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, with Qatar and Pakistan acting as intermediaries, and the two sides will not meet directly. International oil prices continued to fall: NYMEX crude fell 0.9% to $68.88 per barrel; Brent crude fell 0.9% to $72.28 per barrel. Gold prices remained weak: NYMEX gold fell 0.9% to $4,002 per ounce; spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,989 per ounce, slipping below the $4,000 level to close. On a cumulative basis, it was down 4%.

The three major US stock indices opened slightly lower. The Dow fell 166 points, to 52,153; the S&P fell 35 points, to 7,463; and the Nasdaq fell 176 points or 0.7%, to 26,039.

In focus stocks, chip stocks weakened. Micron (MU) fell more than 7% at the open. In an interview, the company’s CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that the current imbalance between supply and demand for chip products is not only due to memory chip manufacturers. He believes that in recent years some customers have pushed prices down aggressively during negotiations, resulting in insufficient capacity investment for the industry—preventing the entire sector from laying out plans in advance and failing to keep up with the demand brought about by the AI industry’s explosive growth.

He acknowledged that in 2023, some customers drove industry prices down to one-third of their previous levels. The sharp collapse in prices put memory suppliers into negative gross margin, leaving the entire industry without sufficient financial flexibility to invest in new capacity.

Intraday market performance:

[18:00] US and Iran are holding indirect technical talks; oil and gold prices drop together; Dow futures down 124 points

[17:00] [AI+Anthropic] US Department of Commerce removes export controls; Anthropic will resume access to models Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 tomorrow

[16:40] [AAPL] US Supreme Court accepts Apple’s appeal; to review “contempt of court” ruling in Epic Games antitrust case

[16:30] [Trump] Made over 9.3 billion yuan in crypto last year; personal net worth soars to 59.2 billion

[16:20] [TSLA] Tesla tests the first Cybercab; US recommends exempting installation of brake pedals

[16:00] [Layoff wave] Microsoft reportedly to resume large-scale layoffs again; involves thousands of positions; Xbox division hit hardest

See how US stocks closed:

AI stocks performed strongly. SanDisk (SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose 7.3%, TSMC (TSM) rose 4.9%, Nebius (NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (CRWV) rose 4.2%. However, Micron (MU) rose only 0.8%.

Musk’s twin stocks rose: Tesla (TSLA; Tesla) rose 2.1% and SpaceX (SPCX) rose 4.1%, closing at $170.86.

US Treasury prices fell. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.465%, as US data remained strong—especially JOLTS job openings at 7.594 million, exceeding the upside forecast of 7.296 million. Meanwhile, with inflation expectations in place, pressure for rate hikes increased.

The US and Iran exchanged messages via intermediaries in Doha. The market watched for developments. Oil prices were soft: NYMEX crude fell 1% to $70.07; Brent crude fell 0.3% to $72.92. Spot gold prices were little changed at $4,008.38.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that US Middle East envoy Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with mediators and discuss negotiation matters, but there are currently no plans to schedule high-level talks between the US and Iran.

For the first half of the year in total, the Dow rose 8.9%, the S&P rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 12.8%, continuing the upward trend over the past three consecutive years.

Bitcoin came under pressure, falling below $60,000 and currently trading at $58,482, down 3% on the day. Coinbase (COIN) fell 3.6%, Strategy (MSTR) fell 6.2%, and Circle fell 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said that artificial intelligence (AI) is still the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage to practical business applications, corporate capital expenditure continues to receive support. At the same time, the market is also placing greater emphasis on distinguishing companies that genuinely benefit from the long-term AI development trend from individual stocks mainly driven by market sentiment.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are being updated continuously. For details, please see: Next page

Intraday market performance:

[14:59] Dow futures rose 15 points to 52,587; S&P futures rose 6 points to 7,506; Nasdaq futures rose 71 points or 0.2% to 30,124.

[14:59] Oil prices fell 1%. NYMEX crude fell 1.1% to $70; Brent crude fell 1.4% to $72.14. Gold prices held steady: NYMEX gold rose 0.1% to $4,043; spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,028.

[14:07] [Fed Personnel] Overturning a 1991 precedent, US Supreme Court expands the president’s power to remove senior officials; limited protection for Fed independence; Cook to remain temporarily

[12:39] [US Stock Analysis] Dow rises above 52,000 for the first time to close; analysis: it is not advisable to sell tech stocks at current levels to buy traditional stocks; AI-related shares expected to remain in demand

[12:33] [Oil Price Trends] Morgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecast again, the second time in two weeks; sees Brent crude at $80 in Q4

[11:07] [AAPL] Apple’s India plant Tata targeted by hackers; leaked iPhone 18 real photos, chip, and supplier lists to the dark web

[09:43] [JPY Trends] Yen breaks below 162; falls below 4.82 against the Hong Kong dollar; hits a new 40-year low; analysis: even if intervention occurs, it will be short-lived

[01:32] [META] WhatsApp launches username feature; 3 billion users can avoid publicly disclosing phone numbers

[00:57] [GOOGL] Google Cloud lists scientific AI models; targeting drug and chip materials R&D

[00:19] [AAPL] Apple pushes back against India’s antitrust investigation; criticizes regulatory report as too sloppy

====Below is the US stock market situation for June 29====

Monday: Nasdaq rebounds more than 2%, Dow up 306 points, yen at 40-year low; focus: will ensure Fed governor Cook does not make key decisions

With tensions in the Middle East easing, investors bought US tech stocks, boosting the US stock market on Monday. The Nasdaq rebounded more than 2%, the Dow rose as much as 435 points. The market watched for clues about the future direction of interest rates in a speech by Fed Chair Warsh at the ECB’s annual meeting this week. The yen against the US dollar hit a 40-year low.

See how US stocks closed:

The Dow closed at 52,182, up 306 points. The S&P rose 1.18%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The US Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently does not have the power to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, stating that monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. Trump responded on social media that he would take corresponding actions in the Cook lawsuit, ensuring she does not make crucial decisions on Fed monetary policy issues.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s ruling reaffirmed a long-standing principle supporting sound economic management: the Fed must make all policy decisions solely based on evidence and independent judgment, free from political interference.

SpaceX is set to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index next month, with the stock price up 7.1%. AI software stocks performed strongly, with Alphabet officially added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, rising 4.8%. Tesla rose 8.5%.

A group of US companies filed a collective antitrust class action lawsuit against Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, alleging details including a 700% increase over 4 years and reducing production of traditional DRAM under the name of HBM. The lawsuit was filed on June 25, i.e., last Thursday, which coincided with the rapid drop in memory stocks. Micron fell another 9.6%, then turned to a gain of 1.1% at the close. SanDisk (SNDK) previously fell 9.4%, narrowing its loss to 1.9% at the close.

The plaintiffs accuse Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron of using their absolute dominant position of more than 90% in the global DRAM market. While they claim they are shifting production capacity to higher-margin high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in response to the AI boom, they are actually artificially creating a shortage. Using HBM as a “smokescreen,” they jointly reduce output of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, deliberately creating a severe shortage in the retail market, causing the price of ordinary DRAM to surge by about 700% over the past four years. The plaintiffs’ economic rationale argues that in a healthy competitive market, a spike in prices should attract manufacturers to “expand production” to gain market share, but the three giants did the opposite by “jointly reducing supply,” showing clear collusion in monopolistic practices.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court paved the way for President Trump to freely fire officials from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) agencies that have long remained independent from politics. For institutions that have long enjoyed political protection, this is a historic dismantling. The ruling will greatly expand the president’s power and influence, overturning the nearly century-old precedent of “Humphrey’s Executor,” which held that commissioners of independent agencies could not be removed without specific cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major victory,” confirming that he has the power to replace officials: “As the sitting president who has won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I feel extremely honored—this is one of the most important rulings concerning presidential power.”

However, the 6-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve (the Fed), consistent with earlier signals from the Supreme Court that its view of the central bank is different. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has a “unique historical tradition.”

Trump agreed to stop attacking Iran and resumed peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. NYMEX crude rose 2.2% to $70.75, and Brent crude rose 1.61% to $73.15.

Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflation is currently too high, but there are signs that price pressure may ease quickly. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the employment report on Thursday may show “another strong number”; he said the productivity boom brought by AI has a deflationary effect, so the current case for rate hikes is not as strong.

The US dollar index eased, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.381%.

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per dollar, breaking below the July 2024 low and hitting a new low since 1986; investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will step in again to support the yen.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are being updated continuously. For details, please see: Next page

Intraday market performance:

[21:30] The Dow opened 164 points higher at 52,040. The Nasdaq rose 1.1% to 25,578. The S&P opened 52 points higher at 7,406.

[19:17] Dow futures rose 168 points; Nasdaq futures rose 1%; S&P futures rose 45 points.

[15:18] Dow futures rose 95 points to 52,304; S&P futures rose 37 points to 7,439; Nasdaq futures rose 219 points or 0.7% to 29,587.

[15:18] NYMEX crude rose 1% to $69.92, and Brent crude rose 0.5% to $72.32. NYMEX gold fell 0.5% to $4,074, and spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,058.

[15:01] [AI+Computing Power] Computing power cannot keep up with demand; Google reportedly blocks Meta’s “water supply,” limiting Gemini usage caps

[12:44] [Memory] Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly plan to invest 10 trillion to expand AI semiconductors; partner with the South Korean government to release the “Three Major Projects” at 2 PM Monday; Morningstar breaks down hidden risks in expansion

[11:40] [Breaking Tradition] US marks 250th anniversary by issuing a limited “Patriot Passport”; Trump becomes the first sitting president to appear on the passport

[10:46] [AI+Anthropic] Austria urges the EU to attract Anthropic to settle there, hoping to break through US export restrictions

[10:42] [AAPL] Apple reportedly seeks approval to purchase chips from Changxin Memory to avoid being placed on the entity list; Kuo: the truth is a memory supply-demand gap crisis in 2027; Citi: boosts Changxin Memory’s global standing

[06:46] [Iran Crisis] Oil prices rise; Axios: US and Iran stop attacking each other; talks on the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday

[06:00] ChatGPT developer OpenAI reportedly delays its IPO to next year, weighing on AI hardware stocks; US stocks were choppy and weaker last Friday, with the Dow down as much as 305 points and the Nasdaq dropping for 5 straight days. The Dow closed at 51,876, down 44 points. The S&P was slightly down 0.05%; the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

See how US stocks closed:

For US stock market developments last week, please see: [US Stock Market Closing] OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to next year; Nasdaq falls another 0.2%; Kashkari expects one rate hike this year; Dow gives back 44 points