【US Stock Market Opening】Fed Chairman Warsh: Expects Fierce Internal Divisions at the July FOMC Meeting; the US dollar and US Treasury yields rebound; the Dow falls 166 points, chip stocks plunge (Updating continuously)

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the European Central Bank forum, during which he mentioned that the Fed will embark on a new policy path to determine better policies, but emphasized that it will not provide any forward guidance, and expects intense internal policy discord at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The US June ADP employment report, commonly known as "small non-farm," showed an increase of 98,000 jobs, lower than the expected 118,000, while the May figure remained at 122,000.

Data from human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows that US companies announced 45,849 layoffs in June, down 53% month-over-month, year-over-year

Market sources indicate that the US and Iran are conducting indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, with Qatar and Pakistan serving as mediators, and the two sides will not meet directly. International oil prices continue to fall, with NYMEX crude oil down 0.9% to $68.88 per barrel, Brent crude oil at $72.28 per barrel, down 0.9%; gold prices remain weak, with NYMEX gold down 0.9% to $4,002 per ounce, spot gold down 0.5% to $3,989 per ounce, breaking below the $4,000 mark. The count fell 4%.

The three major US stock indexes opened lower, with the Dow down 166 points to 52,153; the S&P down 35 points to 7,463; the Nasdaq down 176 points or 0.7% to 26,039.

In terms of focus stocks, chip stocks weakened, with Micron (MU) opening down over 7%. Company CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in an interview that it is not only memory chip manufacturers causing the current supply-demand imbalance in chip products. He believes that in recent years, some customers have aggressively pressured prices during negotiations, leading to insufficient capacity investment in the industry, preventing the entire industry from laying out plans in advance and failing to keep up with the demand brought by the AI industry explosion.

He frankly stated that in 2023, some customers significantly lowered industry prices to one-third of previous levels, causing price drops that led to negative gross margins for storage suppliers, making the entire industry lack sufficient financial flexibility to invest in new capacity.

Intraday trends:

[18:00] US and Iran conducting indirect technical talks, oil and gold prices both fall, Dow futures down 124 points

[17:00] [AI+Anthropic] US Commerce Department lifts export controls, Anthropic to resume access to models Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 from tomorrow

[16:40] [AAPL] US Supreme Court accepts Apple's appeal, reviews "contempt of court" ruling in Epic Games antitrust case

[16:30] [Trump] Earned over $9.3 billion in crypto last year, personal net worth soars to $59.2 billion

[16:20] [TSLA] Tesla tests first Cybercab, US recommends exemption from brake pedal installation

[16:00] [Layoff wave] Microsoft reportedly to launch large-scale layoffs again, affecting thousands of positions, Xbox department becomes hardest hit

See US stock market closing:

AI stocks performed well, with SanDisk (SNDK) up 10.9%, AMD (AMD) up 7.7%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) up 7.3%, TSMC (TSM) up 4.9%, Nebius (NBIS) up 5.8%, CoreWeave (CRWV) up 4.2%, but Micron (MU) only up 0.8%.

Musk's twins rose, Tesla (TSLA) up 2.1%, SpaceX (SPCX) up 4.1%, closing at $170.86.

US bond prices fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.465% as US data remained strong, especially JOLTS job openings reaching 7.594 million, exceeding expectations of 7.296 million. At the same time, under inflation expectations, pressure to raise interest rates increased.

The US and Iran are talking through intermediaries in Doha, with the market watching progress. Oil prices were weak, with NYMEX crude oil down 1% to $70.07, Brent crude oil down 0.3% to $72.92. Spot gold prices changed little, at $4,008.38.

A spokesperson for the Qatari Foreign Ministry said that US Middle East envoy Witkoff and President Trump's son-in-law Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss negotiations, but there are currently no plans for high-level talks between the US and Iran.

In total for the first half of the year, the Dow rose 8.9%, the S&P rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 12.8%, extending a three-year consecutive upward trend.

Bitcoin came under pressure, falling below $60,000, currently at $58,482, down 3% on the day. Coinbase (COIN) fell 3.6%, Strategy (MSTR) fell 6.2%, Circle fell 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage to practical commercial applications, corporate capital expenditures continue to receive support. At the same time, the market is also placing more emphasis on distinguishing companies that truly benefit from the long-term AI development trend from those that rely primarily on market sentiment.

Hong Kong stock and ADR market updates, see next page for details.

Intraday trends:

[14:59] Dow futures up 15 points to 52,587, S&P futures up 6 points to 7,506, Nasdaq futures up 71 points or 0.2% to 30,124.

[14:59] Oil prices down 1%, NYMEX crude oil down 1.1% to $70, Brent crude oil down 1.4% to $72.14. Gold prices steady, NYMEX gold up 0.1% to $4,043, spot gold up 0.3% to $4,028.

[14:07] [Fed personnel] Overturning a 91-year precedent, US Supreme Court expands president's power to remove senior officials, Fed independence gets limited protection, Cook temporarily remains

[12:39] [US stock analysis] Dow closes above 52,000 for the first time, analysis: not advisable to sell tech stocks for traditional stocks at current levels, AI-related stocks still expected to be favored

[12:33] [Oil price trend] Morgan Stanley lowers oil price forecast again, second time in two weeks, sees Brent at $80 in Q4

[11:07] [AAPL] Apple's India Tata factory hacked, iPhone 18 physical photos, chips, supplier list, etc. leaked to dark web

[09:43] [JPY trend] Yen breaks 162 level, falls below 4.82 against HKD, hits new 40-year low, analysis: intervention effect short-lived

[01:32] [META] WhatsApp launches username feature, 3 billion users can avoid revealing phone numbers

[00:57] [GOOGL] Google Cloud launches scientific research AI model, targeting drug and chip material R&D

[00:19] [AAPL] Apple fights back against Indian antitrust investigation, criticizes regulatory report as too crude

====Below is the US stock market situation on June 29====

Monday: Nasdaq rallies over 2%, Dow up 306 points, Yen at 40-year low, Trump: Will ensure Fed Governor Cook does not make key decisions

The situation in the Middle East eased, and investors bought US tech stocks, boosting the US stock market on Monday. The Nasdaq rallied over 2%, the Dow rose as much as 435 points. The market is watching Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the European Central Bank annual meeting this week for clues on future interest rate direction. The yen hit a 40-year low against the dollar.

See US stock market closing:

The Dow closed at 52,182, up 306 points, the S&P rose 1.18%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The US Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently does not have the power to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, stating that monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. Trump responded on social media that he would take corresponding actions on Cook's lawsuit to ensure she does not make crucial decisions on Fed monetary policy issues.

Cook said in a statement that the court's ruling reaffirms a principle that has long supported sound economic management, namely that the Fed must make all policy decisions based solely on evidence and independent judgment, free from political interference.

SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index next month, with its stock rising 7.1%. AI software stocks performed strongly, with Alphabet officially added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, rising 4.8%. Tesla rose 8.5%.

A group of US companies filed an antitrust class action lawsuit against Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, alleging details including a 700% price increase over four years, using HBM as a pretext to cut production of traditional DRAM. The lawsuit was filed on June 25, last Thursday, coinciding with the sharp drop in memory stocks. Micron fell another 9.6% but closed up 1.1%, SanDisk (SNDK) fell 9.4% but narrowed losses to 1.9%.

The plaintiffs accuse Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron of using their absolute dominant position in the global DRAM market, holding over 90% market share, to artificially create shortages. They claim that while publicly stating they are shifting production capacity to higher-margin high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in response to the AI boom, they are actually coordinating to reduce output of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, using HBM as a "smokescreen" to deliberately create severe shortages in the retail market, causing common DRAM prices to soar about 700% over the past four years. The plaintiffs' economic rationale indicates that in a healthy competitive market, price spikes should attract manufacturers to expand production to gain market share, but the three giants have instead "jointly contracted supply," showing clear collusive monopolistic behavior.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court paved the way for President Trump to freely remove officials from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) other agencies long considered independent from politics. This is a historic dismantling for institutions that have long enjoyed political protection. The ruling overturns the nearly century-old precedent of "Humphrey's Executor," which stipulated that commissioners of independent agencies could not be removed without cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a "big victory" confirming his power to remove officials: "I feel incredibly honored to be the current president who has won this historic and unprecedented ruling, one of the most important rulings regarding presidential power."

However, the 6-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve, consistent with earlier signals from the Supreme Court that it views the central bank differently. Chief Justice John Roberts stated that the central bank has a "unique historical tradition."

Trump stopped attacking Iran and resumed peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. NYMEX crude oil rose 2.2% to close at $70.75, Brent crude oil up 1.61% to close at $73.15.

Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflation is currently too high, but there are signs that price pressures may ease soon. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Thursday's employment report may show "another strong number"; he stated that the productivity boom brought by AI has a deflationary effect, so the current case for rate hikes is not that strong.

The US dollar index softened, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.381%.

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per dollar, breaking below the July 2024 low, hitting a new low since 1986; investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will intervene again to support the yen.

Hong Kong stock and ADR market updates, see next page for details.

Intraday trends:

[21:30] Dow opens up 164 points at 52,040. Nasdaq up 1.1% at 25,578. S&P opens up 52 points at 7,406.

[19:17] Dow futures up 168 points, Nasdaq futures up 1%, S&P futures up 45 points.

[15:18] Dow futures up 95 points at 52,304, S&P futures up 37 points at 7,439, Nasdaq futures up 219 points or 0.7% at 29,587.

[15:18] NYMEX crude oil up 1% to $69.92, Brent crude oil up 0.5% to $72.32. NYMEX gold down 0.5% to $4,074, spot gold down 0.7% to $4,058.

[15:01] [AI+Computing power] Computing power cannot keep up with demand, Google reportedly restricts Meta, limits Gemini usage cap

[12:44] [Memory] Samsung, SK Hynix reportedly planning to invest 10 trillion to expand AI semiconductors, partnering with South Korean government to release "three major projects" at 2 pm Monday, Morningstar analyzes expansion concerns

[11:40] [Breaking tradition] US launches limited "Patriot Passport" for 250th anniversary, Trump becomes first sitting president on passport

[10:46] [AI+Anthropic] Austria suggests EU recruit Anthropic to settle, seeking to bypass US export restrictions

[10:42] [AAPL] Apple reportedly seeks approval to purchase chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies, avoid entity list; Guo Mingqi: truth is memory supply-demand gap crisis in 2027; Citigroup: enhances ChangXin's global status

[06:46] [Iran crisis] Oil prices rise; Axios: US and Iran stop mutual attacks, negotiate over Strait of Hormuz Tuesday

[06:00] ChatGPT developer OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to next year, putting pressure on AI hardware stocks. US stocks were mixed on Friday, with the Dow falling as much as 305 points, and the Nasdaq falling for five consecutive days. The Dow closed at 51,876, down 44 points, the S&P fell 0.05%; the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

See US stock market closing:

For details on US stock movements last week, see: [US Stock Closing] OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to next year, Nasdaq falls another 0.2%, Kashkari expects one rate hike this year, Dow falls 44 points