【US Stocks Open】Fed Chairman Warsh: Expects Fierce Internal Divergence at the July FOMC Meeting; US Dollar and US Bond Yields Rebound; Dow Drops 166 Points, Chip Stocks Plunge (Continuously Updated)

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller delivered a speech at the European Central Bank forum, during which he said that the Federal Reserve will open a new policy path to determine better policies. He also stressed that it will not provide any forward guidance, and expects intense internal policy disagreements at the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

US June ADP employment change, nicknamed the “mini nonfarm,” increased by 98,000, below the expected 118,000; the May figure remained at 122,000.

Data from human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by US companies in June fell 53% month-over-month to 45,849 people, and fell year-over-year.

Market news said the US and Iran are holding indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, with Qatar and Pakistan acting as mediators. The two sides will not meet directly. International oil prices continued to retreat. New York crude oil fell 0.9% to $68.88 per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 0.9% to $72.28 per barrel. Gold prices continued to weaken: New York gold fell 0.9% to $4,002 per ounce, while spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,989 per ounce, falling below the $4,000 level. In total, it was down 4%.

The three major US stock indexes opened slightly lower. The Dow fell 166 points to 52,153. The S&P 500 fell 35 points to 7,463. The Nasdaq fell 176 points, or 0.7%, to 26,039.

In focus stocks, chip stocks weakened. Micron (US: MU) fell more than 7% at the open. In an interview, company CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that the current imbalance between supply and demand for chip products is not caused by only memory chip manufacturers. He believes that in recent years, some customers have aggressively driven down prices during negotiations, leading to insufficient capacity investment in the industry—so the whole industry failed to plan ahead and keep up with the demand brought by the AI industry boom.

He admitted that in 2023, some customers sharply pushed down industry prices to one-third of the previous level. The collapse in prices drove memory suppliers into a negative gross margin situation, leaving the entire industry without sufficient financial flexibility to invest in new capacity.

Intraday moves:

【18:00】 US and Iran are holding indirect technical talks; oil and gold prices slide together; Dow futures down 124 points

【17:00】 【AI+ Anthropic】 US Commerce Department removes export controls; Anthropic will restore access to models Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 starting tomorrow

【16:40】 【AAPL】 US Supreme Court agrees to hear Apple’s appeal, reviewing the “contempt of court” ruling in Epic Games’ antitrust case

【16:30】 【Trump】 Made over 9.3 billion yuan in crypto last year; personal net worth soars to 59.2 billion yuan

【16:20】 【TSLA】 Tesla tests its first Cybercab; US recommends exempting the installation of brake pedal

【16:00】 【Layoff Wave】 Microsoft reportedly plans to launch another large-scale round of layoffs, involving thousands of positions; the Xbox division becomes the hardest-hit area

See the US stock market close in real time:

AI stocks performed well. SanDisk (US: SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (US: AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (US: MRVL) rose 7.3%, TSMC (US: TSM) rose 4.9%, Nebius (US: NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (US: CRWV) rose 4.2%. However, Micron (US: MU) rose only 0.8%.

Musk’s twin stocks climbed. Tesla (US: TSLA; Tesla) rose 2.1%, SpaceX (US: SPCX) rose 4.1%, and closed at $170.86.

US bond prices fell. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.465%, as US data remained strong—especially JOLTS job openings of 7.594 million, exceeding expectations of 7.296 million. At the same time, with inflation expectations, pressure to raise interest rates increased.

The US dollar index weakened, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to 4.381%.

The Japanese yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per dollar, breaking below the low of July 2024 and hitting a new low since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will step in again to support the yen.

For the first half of the year in total, the Dow rose 8.9%, the S&P 500 rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 12.8%, continuing the upward trend for the past three consecutive years.

Bitcoin was under pressure, falling below $60,000 and temporarily quoted at $58,482, down 3% for the day. Coinbase (US: COIN) fell 3.6%, Strategy (US: MSTR) fell 6.2%, and Circle fell 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said that artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage to real commercial applications, corporate capital expenditures continue to receive support. At the same time, the market is also placing greater emphasis on distinguishing companies that will genuinely benefit from the long-term AI development trend from individual stocks that mainly rely on market sentiment.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated. For details, see: Next Page

Intraday moves:

【14:59】 Dow futures rose 15 points to 52,587; S&P 500 futures rose 6 points to 7,506; Nasdaq futures rose 71 points, or 0.2%, to 30,124.

【14:59】 Oil prices fell 1%. NYMEX crude oil fell 1.1% to $70. Brent crude oil fell 1.4% to $72.14. Gold prices held steady: New York gold rose 0.1% to $4,043; spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,028.

【14:07】 【Fed Personnel】 Overturning a precedent from 91 years ago, US Supreme Court expands the president’s power to remove senior officials; limited protection for Fed independence; Cook to remain temporarily

【12:39】 【US Stock Analysis】 Dow closes above 52,000 for the first time. Analysis: It’s not advisable to sell technology stocks at current levels to buy traditional stocks. AI-related stocks are expected to remain in demand.

【12:33】 【Oil Price Trend】 Morgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecast again, the second time in two weeks. Brent is expected at $80 in Q4.

【11:07】 【AAPL】 Apple’s India plant Tata was hit by hackers; iPhone 18 real photos, chip information, and supplier lists leaked to the dark web

【09:43】 【Japanese Yen Trend】 The yen breaks below the 162 level, slipping below 4.82 against the Hong Kong dollar; hits another 40-year low. Analysis: Even with intervention, the effect would be short-lived.

【01:32】 【META】 WhatsApp launches the username feature; 3 billion users can avoid making phone numbers public

【00:57】 【GOOGL】 Google Cloud uploads research AI models, targeting research and development of drugs and chip materials

【00:19】 【AAPL】 Apple pushes back against India’s antitrust investigation, criticizing regulators’ report as too rough

====The following are US stock market conditions for June 29====

Monday: Nasdaq jumps more than 2%; Dow up 306 points; yen at 40-year low. Key: Will ensure Fed Governor Cook does not make key decisions

With easing tensions in the Middle East, investors bought US technology stocks, lifting US equities on Monday. The Nasdaq jumped more than 2%, and the Dow rose as much as 435 points. The market focused on clues from Federal Reserve Chairman Waller’s speech at the European Central Bank’s annual meeting this week, as investors looked for directions on the future path of interest rates. The yen weakened to a 40-year low against the dollar.

See the US stock market close:

The Dow closed at 52,182, up 306 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.18%; and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The US Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently does not have the power to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, stating that monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. Trump responded on social media that he will take appropriate action in the lawsuit involving Cook to ensure she does not make crucial decisions on issues related to the Fed’s monetary policy.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s ruling reaffirms a long-standing principle supporting sound economic management: the Fed must make all policy decisions solely based on evidence and independent judgment, without political interference.

SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index next month; its stock price rose 7.1%. AI software stocks performed strongly. Alphabet was formally added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with its stock rising 4.8%. Tesla rose 8.5%.

A group of US companies brought a collective antitrust lawsuit, accusing Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The alleged details include that in the past 4 years, prices rose by 700%, and that production of traditional DRAM was reduced “under the name” of HBM. The lawsuit was filed on June 25, i.e., last Thursday, which coincided with the timing when memory stocks sharply fell. Micron fell again by 9.6% and then turned around to end up 1.1% at the close. SanDisk (US: SNDK) previously fell 9.4% and narrowed its losses to close down 1.9%.

The plaintiffs alleged that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron used their absolute dominant position in the global DRAM market—over 90%—ostensibly claiming it was to shift capacity to higher-profit high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in response to the AI boom. In reality, they allegedly artificially created a shortage by using HBM as a “smokescreen,” coordinating to cut production of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, deliberately creating a severe shortage in the retail market. This led to ordinary DRAM prices soaring by roughly 700% over the past four years. The plaintiffs’ economic reasoning states that in a healthy competitive market, a surge in prices should prompt manufacturers to “expand production” to capture market share, but the three giants instead “jointly contracted supply,” demonstrating clear collusion.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court cleared the way for President Trump to freely dismiss officials at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) officials at agencies that have long stayed independent of politics. For institutions that have long enjoyed political protection, this is a historic dismantling. The ruling will greatly expand the president’s power and influence. The ruling overturned the nearly century-old precedent of “Humphrey’s Executor,” which provided that commissioners of independent agencies may not be removed in the absence of specific cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major victory,” confirming his power to replace officials: “As the sitting president who won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I feel extremely honored. This is one of the most important rulings ever made on presidential power.”

However, the 6-to-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve, consistent with signals previously sent by the Supreme Court indicating that it views this central bank differently. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has a “unique historical tradition.”

Trump agreed to stop striking Iran and resumed peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. New York crude oil rose 2.2%, closing at $70.75; Brent crude rose 1.61%, closing at $73.15.

Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflation is currently too high, but there are signs that price pressures may soon ease. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said that Thursday’s jobs report could show “another strong number.” He said that the productivity boom brought by AI has deflationary effects, so the current rationale for supporting rate hikes is not that strong.

The US dollar index eased, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 4.381%.

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per dollar, breaking below the low from July 2024 and hitting a new low since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will step back into the market again to support the yen.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated. For details, see: Next Page

Intraday moves:

【21:30】 The Dow opened up 164 points to 52,040. The Nasdaq rose 1.1% to 25,578. The S&P 500 opened up 52 points to 7,406.

【19:17】 Dow futures rose 168 points; Nasdaq futures rose 1%; S&P 500 futures rose 45 points.

【15:18】 Dow futures rose 95 points to 52,304; S&P 500 futures rose 37 points to 7,439; Nasdaq futures rose 219 points, or 0.7%, to 29,587.

【15:18】 NYMEX crude rose 1% to $69.92; Brent crude rose 0.5% to $72.32. NYMEX gold fell 0.5% to $4,074; spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,058.

【15:01】 【AI+ Computing Power】 Computing power can’t keep up with demand. Google reportedly “cuts off” Meta, limiting the Gemini usage cap.

【12:44】 【Memory】 Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly plan to invest 10 trillion won to expand AI semiconductors. They will partner with the Korean government to announce “three major projects” at 2 PM Monday. Morningstar breaks down concerns over expansion.

【11:40】 【Breaking Tradition】 The US marks its 250th anniversary by issuing limited “Patriot Passports.” Trump becomes the first sitting president to appear on the passport.

【10:46】 【AI+Anthropic】 Austria urges the EU to recruit Anthropic to set up a base, hoping to break through US export restrictions.

【10:42】 【AAPL】 Apple reportedly seeks approval to buy chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) to avoid being listed on an entity list. Kuo Ming-chi: The truth is the memory supply-and-demand gap crisis in 2027. Citi: Enhances CXMT’s global position.

【06:46】 【Iran Crisis】 Oil prices rise. Axios: US and Iran stop attacking each other; talks on the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.

【06:00】 ChatGPT developer OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to next year, weighing on AI hardware stocks; US stocks were choppy and generally softer last Friday, with the Dow down as much as 305 points and the Nasdaq falling for 5 consecutive days. The Dow closed at 51,876, down 44 points; the S&P 500 slipped 0.05%; and the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

See the US stock market close:

For more on US stocks last week, see: 【US stock market close】 OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to next year; Nasdaq falls again 0.2%; Kashkari expects one rate hike this year; Dow gives back 44 points.