【US Stock Pre-market】US and Iran are conducting indirect technical talks, oil and gold prices fall together, Dow drops 124 points (continuous update)

Market sources said that the United States and Iran are holding indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, with Qatar and Pakistan serving as mediators, and that neither side will meet directly. International oil prices continue to fall. New York crude oil futures dropped 0.9% to $68.88 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell 0.9% to $72.28 per barrel. Gold prices continued to weaken: New York gold futures fell 0.9% to $4,002 per ounce, and spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,989 per ounce, slipping below the $4,000 mark.

The three major US stock indexes were slightly soft before the market open. Dow futures fell 124 points to 52,546; S&P futures fell 16 points to 7,532; and Nasdaq futures fell 145 points, or 0.5%, to 30,378.

The United States will release Wednesday’s reports on June ADP employment change, June S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI final, and June ISM Manufacturing Index.

Among the focus stocks, chip stocks were weak before the market open. Micron (US: MU) was down more than 3% pre-market. In an interview, company CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that the current imbalance between supply and demand for chip products is not caused only by memory-chip manufacturers. He believes that in recent years some customers have pushed aggressively to cut prices during negotiations, resulting in insufficient industry capacity investment and preventing the industry from planning ahead to keep up with demand brought by the AI industry’s surge.

He admitted that in 2023, some customers slashed industry prices to one-third of the previous level. The sharp price drop pushed memory suppliers into negative gross margin conditions, leaving the entire industry without sufficient financial flexibility to invest in new production capacity.

Intraday market moves:

【18:00】US and Iran are holding indirect technical talks; oil and gold both drop; Dow falls 124 points

【17:00】 【AI+Anthropic】US Commerce Department removes export controls; Anthropic resumes access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models starting tomorrow

【16:40】 【AAPL】US Supreme Court accepts Apple’s appeal; hears Epic Games antitrust case “contempt of court” ruling

【16:30】 【Trump】Made over 9.3 billion yuan in crypto last year; personal net worth soars to 59.2 billion

【16:20】 【TSLA】Tesla tests the first Cybercab; US recommends exempting installation of brake pedals

【16:00】 【Layoff wave】Microsoft reportedly to kick off another large-scale round of layoffs, involving thousands of positions; the Xbox division becomes the hardest hit area

See the US stock market close:

AI stocks performed well. SanDisk (US: SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (US: AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (US: MRVL) rose 7.3%, TSMC (US: TSM) rose 4.9%, Nebius (US: NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (US: CRWV) rose 4.2%. However, Micron (US: MU) rose only 0.8%.

Musk’s “twin” stocks climbed. Tesla (US: TSLA; Tesla) rose 2.1%, and SpaceX (US: SPCX) rose 4.1%, closing at $170.86.

US bond prices fell. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose to 4.465%, as US data remained strong—especially JOLTS job openings of 7.594 million, exceeding expectations of 7.296 million. At the same time, with inflation expectations, pressure for rate hikes increased.

The United States and Iran are speaking through intermediaries in Doha. The market is watching for progress. Oil prices were slightly weak: New York crude oil futures fell 1% to $70.07, and Brent crude oil futures fell 0.3% to $72.92. Spot gold was little changed at $4,008.38.

A spokesperson for the Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that US Middle East envoy Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss negotiation matters, but currently there are no plans to schedule a high-level meeting between the US and Iran.

On a total basis for the first half of the year, the Dow rose 8.9%, the S&P rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 12.8%, continuing the upward trend for the past three consecutive years.

Bitcoin was under pressure, losing the $60,000 level. It was temporarily quoted at $58,482, down 3% on the day. Coinbase (US: COIN) fell 3.6%, Strategy (US: MSTR) fell 6.2%, and Circle fell 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said that artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure phase to real business applications, corporate capital expenditure continues to receive support. At the same time, the market is also placing more emphasis on distinguishing companies that genuinely benefit from the long-term AI development trend from those whose individual stocks are mainly driven by market sentiment.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated; for details, see the next page.

Intraday market moves:

【14:59】Dow futures rose 15 points to 52,587; S&P futures rose 6 points to 7,506; Nasdaq futures rose 71 points, or 0.2%, to 30,124.

【14:59】Oil prices fell 1%. New York crude oil futures fell 1.1% to $70; Brent crude oil futures fell 1.4% to $72.14. Gold prices held steady: New York gold futures rose 0.1% to $4,043; spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,028.

【14:07】 【Fed Personnel】Overturning a 91-year precedent, the US Supreme Court expands the president’s power to remove senior officials; the Fed’s independence receives limited protection; Cook to remain for now

【12:39】 【US Stock Analysis】Dow closes above 52,000 points for the first time; Analysis: not advisable to sell tech stocks at current levels to buy traditional stocks; expects AI-related shares to remain in demand

【12:33】 【Oil Price Trends】Morgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecast again, the second time in two weeks; sees Brent at $80 in Q4

【11:07】 【AAPL】Apple’s India plant Tata was hit by hackers; leaked data to the dark web including iPhone 18 real-device photos, chips, and a supplier list

【09:43】 【JPY Trends】Japanese yen falls below the 162 level, breaks through 4.82 against the Hong Kong dollar; hits a new 40-year low. Analysis: even if intervention occurs, the effect will be short-lived

【01:32】 【META】WhatsApp launches the username feature; 3 billion users can avoid sharing phone numbers publicly

【00:57】 【GOOGL】Google Cloud puts up research AI models, targeting drug and chip materials R&D

【00:19】 【AAPL】Apple retaliates against India’s antitrust investigation, criticizing regulatory reports as too rough

====The following is the US stock market situation on June 29====

Monday: Nasdaq rebounds more than 2%, Dow up 306 points, yen at a 40-year low. Focus: will ensure Fed Governor Cook does not make key decisions

With Middle East tensions easing, investors bought US technology stocks, lifting US stocks higher on Monday. The Nasdaq rebounded more than 2%. The Dow was up as much as 435 points. The market is watching Fed Chair Worshbon’s speech at the European Central Bank annual meeting this week for clues on the direction of future interest rates. The yen versus the dollar hit a 40-year low.

See the US stock market close:

The Dow closed at 52,182, up 306 points. The S&P rose 1.18%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The US Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently has no authority to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook (Lisa Cook). The court said monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. In response on social media, Trump said he would take corresponding actions in the Cook lawsuit to ensure she would not make crucial decisions on issues related to Fed monetary policy.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s ruling reaffirmed a principle that has long supported sound economic management: the Fed must make all policy decisions based solely on evidence and independent judgment, free from political interference.

SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index next month; its share price rose 7.1%. AI software stocks performed strongly. Alphabet was officially added to the Dow Jones index; the stock rose 4.8%. Tesla rose 8.5%.

A group of US companies launched a collective antitrust lawsuit, accusing Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The allegations include that over 4 years the increase was 700%, and that production cuts for traditional DRAM were carried out under the name of HBM. The lawsuit was filed on June 25, last Thursday, which matched the timing of the sharp selloff in memory stocks. Micron fell again by 9.6% and then switched to a rise at the close, ending up 1.1%. SanDisk (US: SNDK) had fallen 9.4% at one point and closed with the decline narrowed to 1.9%.

The plaintiffs allege that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron used their absolute dominant position of over 90% in the global DRAM market. They claimed publicly that they were shifting capacity to higher-margin high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to meet the AI boom, but in reality they were artificially creating a shortage, using HBM as a “smokescreen.” They coordinated to cut production of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, deliberately creating a severe shortage in the retail market, causing the price of ordinary DRAM to surge by about 700% over the past four years. Based on the plaintiffs’ economic rationale, in a healthy competitive market, a price surge should attract manufacturers to “expand production” to gain market share. However, the three giants did the opposite—“jointly reducing supply”—showing clear collusion to monopolize.

Separately, the Supreme Court paved the way for President Trump, allowing him to freely remove officials at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) officials at agencies that have long been independent from politics. For institutions that have long been protected by politics, this is a historic dismantling. The ruling will greatly expand the president’s power and influence. The ruling overturned the nearly century-old precedent of “Humphrey’s Executor.” That precedent held that commissioners of independent agencies could not be removed without specific cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major victory,” confirming that he has the power to replace officials: “As the sitting president who won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I feel incredibly honored. This is one of the most important rulings ever made regarding presidential power.”

However, the 6-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve, consistent with signals the Supreme Court had sent earlier—namely that the Supreme Court has a different view of this central bank. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has a “unique historical tradition.”

Trump also agreed to stop attacking Iran and resumed peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. New York crude oil futures rose 2.2% and closed at $70.75. Brent crude oil futures rose 1.61% and closed at $73.15.

Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, warned that inflation is still too high, but there are signs that price pressures may ease soon. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said the employment report on Thursday may show “another strong number.” He said the AI-driven productivity boom has a deflationary effect, so the rationale for supporting rate hikes is not that strong right now.

The US dollar index eased, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 4.381%.

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per dollar, breaking below the July 2024 low and hitting a new low since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will step in again to support the yen.

Hong Kong stock and ADR market conditions are continuously updated; for details, see the next page.

Intraday market moves:

【21:30】The Dow opened 164 points higher at 52,040. The Nasdaq rose 1.1% to 25,578. The S&P opened 52 points higher at 7,406.

【19:17】Dow futures rose 168 points; Nasdaq futures rose 1%; S&P futures rose 45 points.

【15:18】Dow futures rose 95 points to 52,304. S&P futures rose 37 points to 7,439. Nasdaq futures rose 219 points, or 0.7%, to 29,587.

【15:18】New York crude oil futures rose 1% to $69.92. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.5% to $72.32. New York gold futures fell 0.5% to $4,074. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,058.

【15:01】 【AI+Computing Power】Computing power can’t keep up with demand. Google reportedly “cuts off water” to Meta, limiting the Gemini usage cap

【12:44】 【Memory】Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly plan to invest 10 trillion won to expand AI semiconductors. Partnering with the Korean government, they will announce the “three major projects” at 2:00 p.m. Monday afternoon. Morningstar breaks down hidden concerns over expansion

【11:40】 【Breaking Tradition】US marks the 250th anniversary by issuing a limited edition “Patriot Passport.” Trump becomes the first sitting president to appear on the passport

【10:46】 【AI+Anthropic】Austria urges the EU to recruit Anthropic to set up in Austria, hoping to break through US export restrictions

【10:42】 【AAPL】Apple reportedly seeks approval to buy chips from Changxin Memory to avoid being put on the entity list. Guo Mingchi: the truth is the memory supply-and-demand gap crisis in 2027. Citigroup: enhances Changxin Memory’s global position

【06:46】 【Iran Crisis】Oil prices rise. Axios: US and Iran stop attacking each other; talks on the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday

【06:00】ChatGPT developer OpenAI reportedly delays IPO until next year, putting pressure on AI hardware stocks. US stocks were choppy and mostly weak last Friday; the Dow fell as much as 305 points and the Nasdaq dropped for 5 straight days. The Dow closed at 51,876, down 44 points. The S&P fell slightly 0.05%; the Nasdaq declined 0.24%.

See the US stock market close:

For the US stock market last week, see details: 【US Stock Close】OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to next year; Nasdaq falls another 0.2%; Kashkari expects one rate hike this year; Dow gives back 44 points