I feel the market is overinterpreting Meta's cloud business...

Currently, Meta itself hasn't officially announced anything, nor has it explained the reasons behind it, nor has it mentioned any plans to slow down AI capital expenditure. It's all the market speculating the worst-case scenario, a bit of PTSD.
As early as Meta's Q3 earnings call last year, they mentioned the cloud business, which was a preemptive warning to the market.
Moreover, Meta's own large model business can't compete with several other Frontier Labs, and its recommendation system doesn't require that much computing power. Selling excess computing power is almost an inevitable choice. Idle GPUs are extremely wasteful, and if they can be sold, they will be sold.
This is a short-term emotional negative for hardware semiconductors, but it definitely does not constitute a reversal of the fundamental logic, because it's temporarily impossible to confirm the following points:
1️⃣ Meta renting out computing power does not mean it cancels procurement; we still need to wait for specific official announcements and earnings calls.
2️⃣ Selling excess computing power may actually increase hardware utilization. What upstream manufacturers fear most is order cancellations. As long as computing power is being used, customers will continue to feel bottlenecks, and the logic of further expansion remains.
3️⃣ The computing power demands of OpenAI, Anthropic, and other hyperscalers will not disappear because Meta is renting out computing power.
Therefore, Meta's cloud business cannot directly lead to the conclusion that AI hardware demand has peaked. It only shows that Meta is being pragmatic, finding a second monetization path for its capex.
I still hold the same view: we must closely watch the most critical indicators—whether the capex of all hyperscalers is slowing down, whether the ARR growth rate of large model companies is slowing down, and whether the orders of upstream hardware manufacturers are weakening.
Only when any of these signals appear will there be a logical reversal.