【U.S. Stock Market Opens】Fed Chair Warsh: Expects Fierce Internal Disagreement at the July Rate Meeting; U.S. dollar and Treasury yields rebound; Dow falls 166 points, chip stocks plunge (ongoing updates)

Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivered a speech at the European Central Bank forum, during which he said the Fed will open a new policy path to determine better policy, but emphasized that it will not provide any forward guidance. He also expects sharp internal policy divisions within the Fed at the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The U.S. June ADP employment report, nicknamed the “mini Nonfarm,” showed an increase of 98,000 jobs, below the expected 118,000, while the May figure remained at 122,000.

Data from the human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in June fell 53% month-over-month to 45,849.

Market news reports that the United States and Iran are holding indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, with Qatar and Pakistan acting as mediators. The two sides will not meet directly. International oil prices continue to decline: NYMEX crude is down 0.9% to $68.88 per barrel, while Brent crude is at $72.28 per barrel, down 0.9%. Gold prices remain weak: NYMEX gold is down 0.9% to $4,002 per ounce, while spot gold is down 0.5% to $3,989 per ounce, falling back below the $4,000 level. Overall, it is down 4%.

The three major U.S. stock indexes opened slightly lower. The Dow fell 166 points, to 52,153; the S&P fell 35 points, to 7,463; and the Nasdaq fell 176 points, or 0.7%, to 26,039.

On the focus stocks, chip stocks weakened. Micron (US: MU) opened down more than 7%. In an interview, the company’s CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that the current imbalance in the supply and demand of chip products is not only due to memory chip manufacturers. He believes that in recent years some customers have aggressively pushed prices down during negotiations, resulting in insufficient industry capacity investment and preventing the entire industry from laying out ahead of time and keeping up with the demand sparked by the AI industry boom.

He acknowledged that in 2023, some customers significantly cut industry prices to as low as one-third of the previous level. The steep price collapse pushed storage suppliers into negative gross margin territory, leaving the industry without sufficient financial flexibility to invest in new capacity.

In-trading trends:

[18:00] U.S. and Iran are holding indirect technical talks; oil and gold prices sink together; Dow futures down 124 points

[17:00] [AI+ Anthropic] The U.S. Department of Commerce removes export controls; Anthropic to restore access to the Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models starting tomorrow

[16:40] [AAPL] The U.S. Supreme Court accepts Apple’s appeal; will hear the “contempt of court” ruling in Epic Games’ antitrust case

[16:30] [Trump] Made over 9.3 billion in profits from crypto last year; personal net worth jumps to 59.2 billion

[16:20] [TSLA] Tesla tests its first Cybercab; U.S. suggests an exemption from installing brake pedal hardware

[16:00] [Layoff wave] Microsoft reportedly to restart large-scale layoffs involving thousands of positions; the Xbox division is the hardest hit

See U.S. stock market close:

AI stocks performed well. SanDisk (US: SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (US: AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (US: MRVL) rose 7.3%, TSMC (US: TSM) rose 4.9%, Nebius (US: NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (US: CRWV) rose 4.2%. However, Micron (US: MU) rose only 0.8%.

Musk’s “twins” moved higher: Tesla (US: TSLA; Tesla) rose 2.1%, and SpaceX (US: SPCX) rose 4.1%, closing at $170.86.

U.S. Treasury prices fell, with the U.S. 10-year yield rising to 4.465%. The rise was driven by still-strong U.S. data, especially JOLTS job openings of 7.594 million, exceeding the 7.296 million expected figure. At the same time, with inflation expectations, pressure to raise interest rates increased.

The U.S. and Iran are speaking through intermediaries in Doha, and the market is watching for progress. Oil prices were softer: NYMEX crude fell 1% to $70.07, and Brent crude fell 0.3% to $72.92. Spot gold showed little movement, at $4,008.38.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the U.S. Middle East envoy Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with the mediators to discuss negotiation matters, but for now there are no plans to arrange high-level talks between the U.S. and Iran.

For the first half of the year in total, the Dow rose 8.9%, the S&P rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 12.8%, continuing the uptrend seen over the past 3 consecutive years.

Bitcoin was under pressure, falling below $60,000 and temporarily quoted at $58,482, down 3% for the day. Coinbase (US: COIN) fell 3.6%, Strategy (US: MSTR) fell 6.2%, and Circle fell 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said that artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage to real commercial applications, corporate capital expenditure continues to receive support. At the same time, the market is also placing greater emphasis on distinguishing companies that genuinely benefit from the long-term AI development trend from individual stocks that mainly rely on market sentiment.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated; for details, please see: Next page

In-trading trends:

[14:59] Dow futures rose 15 points to 52,587; S&P futures rose 6 points to 7,506; Nasdaq futures rose 71 points, or 0.2%, to 30,124.

[14:59] Oil prices fell 1%: NYMEX crude fell 1.1% to $70; Brent crude fell 1.4% to $72.14. Gold prices held steady: NYMEX gold rose 0.1% to $4,043; spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,028.

[14:07] [Fed personnel] Overturning a 91-year precedent, U.S. Supreme Court expands the president’s power to remove senior officials; Fed independence receives limited protection; Cook remains for now

[12:39] [U.S. stock analysis] Dow closes above 52,000 for the first time; Analysis: At current levels, it’s not advisable to sell tech stocks and buy traditional stocks; AI-related shares expected to remain in demand

[12:33] [Oil price trend] Morgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecast again, the second time in two weeks; sees Brent at $80 in Q4

[11:07] [AAPL] Apple’s India plant, Tata, hit by hackers; iPhone 18 real-device photos, chip, supplier list, and other data leaked to the dark web

[09:43] [Japanese yen trend] Yen breaks below 162, falls below 4.82 against the Hong Kong dollar, and hits a new 40-year low; Analysis: Even if there is intervention, the effect is temporary

[01:32] [META] WhatsApp launches a username feature; 3 billion users can avoid making phone numbers public

[00:57] [GOOGL] Google Cloud puts up scientific AI models, targeting drug and chip materials R&D

[00:19] [AAPL] Apple pushes back on India’s antitrust investigation, criticizing the regulator’s report as too careless

====The following is the U.S. stock market situation on June 29====

Monday: Nasdaq rebounds more than 2%, Dow up 306 points; Yen at a 40-year low; Key point: Will ensure that Fed Governor Cook does not make key decisions

With tensions in the Middle East easing, investors bought U.S. technology stocks, helping U.S. stocks rise on Monday. The Nasdaq rebounded more than 2%, and the Dow was up as much as 435 points. The market focused on clues from Federal Reserve Chair Waller’s speech at the European Central Bank’s annual meeting this week, looking for guidance on the future direction of interest rates. The Japanese yen hit a 40-year low versus the U.S. dollar.

See U.S. stock market close:

The Dow closed at 52,182, up 306 points; the S&P rose 1.18%; the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently does not have the power to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. It said monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. Trump responded on social media, saying he would take corresponding action regarding the lawsuit against Cook to ensure she would not make critical decisions on issues of Fed monetary policy.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s decision reaffirmed a principle that has long supported sound economic management—that the Fed must make all policy decisions entirely based on evidence and independent judgment without political interference.

SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index next month, and its share price rose 7.1%. AI software stocks performed strongly: Alphabet was officially added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and its stock rose 4.8%. Tesla rose 8.5%.

A group of U.S. companies filed a collective antitrust lawsuit, accusing Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The allegations include that within 4 years, prices rose by 700%, and that production of traditional DRAM was reduced under the guise of HBM. The lawsuit was filed on June 25, last Thursday, which coincided with the timing of the sharp drop in memory stocks. Micron fell another 9.6% before turning around to close up 1.1%. SanDisk (US: SNDK) had fallen 9.4% and closed with losses narrowed to 1.9%.

The plaintiffs allege that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron used their absolute dominant position in the global DRAM market, over 90%, to ostensibly shift capacity to higher-margin high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in response to the AI boom. In reality, they artificially created a shortage by using HBM as a “smokescreen,” jointly reducing output of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, deliberately manufacturing a severe shortage in the retail market. This led to ordinary DRAM prices surging by about 700% over the past four years. The plaintiffs’ economic argument states that in a healthy competitive market, a price surge should attract manufacturers to “expand production” to capture market share; but the three giants did the opposite, “jointly shrinking supply,” showing clear collusive monopoly intent.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court paved the way for President Trump by allowing him to freely fire officials at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) institutions that have long remained independent of politics. For institutions that have been protected by politics for a long time, this is a historic dismantling. The ruling will greatly expand the president’s power and influence. The ruling overturns the nearly century-old precedent of “Humphrey’s Executor,” which stated that commissioners of independent agencies may not be fired without a specific cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major victory.” He said it confirmed his power to replace officials: “As the sitting president who won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I am immensely honored. This is one of the most important rulings ever made on presidential power.”

However, this 6-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve (the Fed), consistent with signals previously released by the Supreme Court, suggesting the Supreme Court views the central bank differently. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has a “unique historical tradition.”

Trump will stop further strikes against Iran and resume talks in Doha on Tuesday. NYMEX crude rose 2.2% to close at $70.75; Brent crude rose 1.61% to close at $73.15.

Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflation is currently too high, but there are signs that price pressures may soon ease. Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council at the White House, said that Thursday’s employment report may show “another strong number.” He said the productivity boom driven by AI has deflationary effects, so the rationale for supporting higher interest rates is not as strong right now.

The U.S. dollar index eased, down 0.2%, to 101.13, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.381%.

The Japanese yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per dollar, breaking below the July 2024 low and hitting a new low since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will enter the market again to support the yen.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated; for details, please see: Next page

In-trading trends:

[21:30] The Dow opened higher by 164 points at 52,040. The Nasdaq rose 1.1% to 25,578. The S&P opened higher by 52 points at 7,406.

[19:17] Dow futures rose 168 points, Nasdaq futures rose 1%, and S&P futures rose 45 points.

[15:18] Dow futures rose 95 points to 52,304; S&P futures rose 37 points to 7,439; Nasdaq futures rose 219 points, or 0.7%, to 29,587.

[15:18] NYMEX crude rose 1% to $69.92; Brent crude rose 0.5% to $72.32. NYMEX gold fell 0.5% to $4,074; spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,058.

[15:01] [AI + Computing Power] Computing power can’t keep up with demand. Google reportedly “cuts off water” to Meta, limiting the usage cap for Gemini.

[12:44] [Memory] Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly plan to invest 10 trillion won to expand AI semiconductors; with the South Korean government releasing “Three Major Projects” at 2 PM Monday; Morningstar breaks down concerns about expansion.

[11:40] [Breaking tradition] The U.S. marks its 250th anniversary by issuing a limited “Patriot Passport”; Trump becomes the first sitting president to appear on a passport.

[10:46] [AI+Anthropic] Austria urges the EU to recruit Anthropic for relocation, hoping to overcome U.S. export restrictions

[10:42] [AAPL] Apple is reportedly seeking approval to purchase chips from CXMT (Changxin Memory) to avoid being listed on an entity list. Kuo Ming-chi: The truth is a memory supply-and-demand gap crisis in 2027. Citi: Enhances CXMT’s global standing

[06:46] [Iran crisis] Oil prices rise. Axios: The U.S. and Iran stop attacking each other; talks on the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday

[06:00] ChatGPT developer OpenAI reportedly delays its IPO to next year, putting pressure on AI hardware stocks. U.S. stocks were weak and choppy last Friday. The Dow was down as much as 305 points, and the Nasdaq fell for 5 straight days. The Dow closed at 51,876, down 44 points; the S&P edged down 0.05%; and the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

See U.S. stock market close:

For details on last week’s U.S. stock market developments, please see: [U.S. Stock Market Close] OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to next year; Nasdaq down another 0.2%; Kashkari expects one rate hike this year; Dow gives back 44 points