Tonight, the Fed Chair's speech is the core watershed for the market. Two tones correspond to completely opposite market logic:

1. Hawkish tone: Emphasizes that inflation risks are not subsiding and retains room for further rate hikes, which is bullish for the US dollar, reduces risk appetite, and puts downward pressure on crypto assets;

2. Dovish tone: Acknowledges economic growth pressures, signals a slowdown or even pause in rate hikes, which pressures the US dollar to weaken, giving Bitcoin and Ethereum an opportunity to rebound.

Fundamental context: He personally holds hundreds of millions in crypto positions, and in the long term, there may be expectations of looser regulatory policies, but short-term capital flows do not look at long-term expectations, only focusing on liquidity tightening signals.

Currently, US M2 growth continues to decline, and the crypto market is extremely sensitive to changes in market liquidity supply.

The hawkish or dovish tendency of tonight's speech will directly dominate the short-term direction of BTC and ETH. #Gate股票转仓功能上线 $BTC ‌